Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 6z GEFS member pressures and snowfall 6z EPS is not quite out that far yet. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 My guess is this locks in between 12z this afternoon and 0z tonight. The last big jumps in would likely be at 0z tonight, but that is just a guess. Generally, I still look at ensembles for amounts and watch the deterministic runs for trends from this point forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: 6z GEFS member pressures and snowfall 6z EPS is not quite out that far yet. Some big hitters in there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Some big hitters in there. Euro is almost fully populated and there are several 990ish lps around the Outerbanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 6zEPS: Higher res image I was mentioning above: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Hope yall get hammered over this way. This would relax a lot of snow weenies. Things should really come into focus tonight and into tomorrow morning with this storm. Today will be telling but hopefully good trends. So far so good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 9 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: 6zEPS: Higher res image I was mentioning above: Member 37 seems about right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 27 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: 6z GEFS member pressures and snowfall 6z EPS is not quite out that far yet. Only a couple of misses in there and a couple of absolute bangers. Looks good! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Winter storm watches now up in Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 WPC graphic(just runs through day 3...have to wait or E TN graphics as we are day 4): 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: WPC graphic(just runs through day 3...have to wait or E TN graphics as we are day 4): Interesting, thanks for sharing, local mets around here are calling for 2 at the most 3 inches, which seems conservative but I am sure will come into better focus this afternoon and certainly by tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 I don't know if snow weenies ever relax, lol! It can be moderate snow with phat quarters but the dry slot could end the party faster than a police raid. This thing looks Miller B more than Miller A. That came up on the last page. Of course our best deal is a true slider which is still possible. Trouble with B is we can get hosed in the handoff. More specifically the 500 mb low hanging so north trashes the partial thickness chart. With low levels 850/surface clearly cold enough, we'll get snow. Trouble is the 700 mb level* and DGZ will be suboptimal during what's usually the best WAA phase (isentropic lift). Comma head should be responsible for most of that snow forecast by WPC and local NWS WFOs. *700 mb is well below freezing, no concern there. Just not the ideal cold. We'll see. Second half of storm could be all systems go. What we need is a good ol' fashioned TROWAL and corresponding shovel graphic or gif, lol. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 12z NAM looking pretty good. It doesn’t go out far enough yet to cover the entire event but it was looking really good! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 The RGEM had sleet in the Southeastern areas but it was bringing it big time to the region as it ended, more than the NAM or ICON at 84. The ICON looks less good for the western areas and was down a little overall for everyone. Granted, it was probably the most aggressive with snow totals at 6z. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 12z NAM, ICON, and RGEM look good for E TN peeps. Two of those are at range, so take with some grains of salt. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 12z GFS "appears" to be set to also take a slightly more suppressed path just using isotherms early in the run as evidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrwolf1972 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 I'll take the 12z GFS in my area probably be a slight jog north next run but still puts central Valley in cross hair s. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 4 inches + for the entire valley footprint that run. Did trend south a slight bit, I hope that doesn't keep happening over the next 72 hours. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Whoever said Jan '88, GFS was listening and tried (as far as N. AL) lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Kuchera....boom. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: 4 inches + for the entire valley footprint that run. Did trend south a slight bit, I hope that doesn't keep happening over the next 72 hours. Was watching Reed's chase update for Dallas area...and he pointed out the trend there is for the system to not really get going until it passes by. Feel for those folks..Lucy playing with them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 3 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Whoever said Jan '88, GFS was listening and tried (as far as N. AL) lol. That would be me. It just looks like the same footprint, and it was a southern slider. However, it is true as was mentioned earlier Huntsville got 12in from that which is not far off from this run. Thing to remember is the similarities are there, but there will never be two or more “exact” storms. To me the Jan 88 analog was a good match. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 The 12z gfs snow axis pretty spot on with where the RGEM is at the end of its run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 12z CMC looks very similar to 0z so far through 30. Might jog a hair south over the eastern areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 4 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Was watching Reed's chase update for Dallas area...and he pointed out the trend there is for the system to not really get going until it passes by. Feel for those folks..Lucy playing with them. I find when models show unprecedented events at range, they almost always don't happen. Dallas would have broken seasonal snowfall records in a 7 day span based on runs a few days ago. Same when it's showing accumulating snow in central Florida. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Through 48, the CMC is pushing those isotherms just a hair north of where they were at 0z. That would likely mean it may scoot slightly north of 0z. We'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 I'm curious because it usually just expands on the RGEM by a bit. I think the RGEM was set to put out double digit totals for some parts of the area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Through 54, the CMC looks like it might have more juice than 0z...if that is even possible. We'll see if it hold together. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 6 minutes ago, John1122 said: I'm curious because it usually just expands on the RGEM by a bit. I think the RGEM was set to put out double digit totals for some parts of the area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 9 minutes ago, John1122 said: I'm curious because it usually just expands on the RGEM by a bit. I think the RGEM was set to put out double digit totals for some parts of the area. Widespread snowfall still coming down over most of the state at the 84hr mark on the RGEM, beefy run for sure. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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