Carvers Gap Posted Monday at 09:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:37 PM 18z ICON is starting to catch on to this being a very powerful storm. Perfect track for a big storm...cuts inside of Hatteras. Ya'll know my "inside of Hatteras" rule. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted Monday at 09:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:40 PM Would have loved to seen what the RGEM looked like rolled forward...best looking 500 over TX at 84 by far 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted Monday at 09:45 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:45 PM 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: 18z ICON is starting to catch on to this being a very powerful storm. Perfect track for a big storm...cuts inside of Hatteras. Ya'll know my "inside of Hatteras" rule. Starting to wonder if models are holding that piece at 500 back way too long. If it comes out together with the surface and opens the returns off the Gulf instead of Mexico..then the fuse is lit again. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted Monday at 10:00 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:00 PM 18z GFS looks alot better at 84, similar to RGEM so far 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted Monday at 10:01 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:01 PM Instead of dry slot in N AR...it's in corpus Christie at 90 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Monday at 10:01 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:01 PM 18z GFS should be good.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
housemtnTN Posted Monday at 10:02 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:02 PM 31 minutes ago, Wurbus said: Still some lingering flurries in the east, but much beefier on that pass! This would be great! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Monday at 10:03 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:03 PM To clarify....looks good to 102, then warm nose again for E TN. Overall, really good trends. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Monday at 10:08 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:08 PM The 18z GFS was headed to glory...and then lost itself mid run. I doubt that happens in reality. Interestingly, it is an inland runner and not a coastal. As long as it doesn't continue to jog northwest during future runs, that is a good development for E TN. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted Monday at 10:11 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:11 PM 9 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Instead of dry slot in N AR...it's in corpus Christie at 90 Let's talk severe instead. 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 18z GFS was headed to glory...and then lost itself mid run. I doubt that happens in reality. Interestingly, it is an inland runner and not a coastal. As long as it doesn't continue to jog northwest during future runs, that is a good development for E TN. Come on GFS, I was only joking! 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted Monday at 10:11 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:11 PM Just now, Carvers Gap said: The 18z GFS was headed to glory...and then lost itself mid run. I doubt that happens in reality. Interestingly, it is an inland runner and not a coastal. As long as it doesn't continue to jog northwest during future runs, that is a good development for E TN. 500 started to roll out with the surface but held back a little unlike the icon coming all the way. Overall a decent size step in right direction..also eastern valley had moisture still moving up it even tho map showed no precip 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted Monday at 10:19 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:19 PM 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: The 18z GFS was headed to glory...and then lost itself mid run. I doubt that happens in reality. Interestingly, it is an inland runner and not a coastal. As long as it doesn't continue to jog northwest during future runs, that is a good development for E TN. Seems like model continuity/trends to a similar outcome has gotten considerably better over the last 2 days. That’s definitely a trend I like to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Monday at 10:20 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:20 PM 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Monday at 10:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:38 PM Need that piece of energy to phase like the GFS shows,Euro dont its around that area where the point is to the NE 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Monday at 10:51 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:51 PM E TN peeps, do not despair. The 18z GEFS is full of good trends, especially the clown map. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Monday at 10:51 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:51 PM Here are the GEFS lows again: 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Monday at 10:51 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:51 PM Not sure this is the right thread? The 18z GFS agains tries to build a glacier over the forum area. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Monday at 11:03 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:03 PM Icon,GFS,AND CMC dont flatten the Vort out like the Euro does.Euro is right its gonna cut into the QPFS,who knows right now whos gonna be right 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted Monday at 11:04 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:04 PM I'm not overly concerned with p-type, likely will start as snow for everyone p-type may transition to sleet for a time in the East but from my experience at least from Athens North if it starts as snow and transitions, it usually transitions to sleet and doesn't usually last too very long before going back over to snow. Though any time with sleet does suck because it cuts snow totals a bit. Further south near Georgia border might be a bit longer duration of mixing but even there I think going to still get at least modest snow totals. Sleet does have one advantage, great for sledding if you are looking for speed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted Monday at 11:25 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:25 PM 31 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Here are the GEFS lows again: Hopefully the strays that cut into Tn isnt right 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Monday at 11:29 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:29 PM The Euro had a better precip shield again at 18z. Still weakens as it moves East but made it further that time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted Monday at 11:29 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:29 PM MRX posted this on Twitter about an hour ago. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted Monday at 11:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:41 PM 15 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Hopefully the strays that cut into Tn isnt right Yeah, we need less of those members and not more! The GFS is on the northwest side of the cone of probabilities. Honestly, if we can just get a blend of the Euro and GFS...should be good. I'd like to place my order now. LOL. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted Monday at 11:52 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:52 PM How was the 18z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted Tuesday at 12:05 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:05 AM 12 minutes ago, Wurbus said: How was the 18z Euro? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 12:07 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:07 AM Ratio'd Euro. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted Tuesday at 12:08 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:08 AM Looks like some mixing issues or an energy transfer issue for the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted Tuesday at 12:24 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:24 AM 14 minutes ago, Wurbus said: Looks like some mixing issues or an energy transfer issue for the East. It still weakens as it heads East but it made it further that time. It's 4 run trend is quite a dramatic increase in QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted Tuesday at 12:38 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:38 AM Interesting discussion and looking forward to watching the models over the next few days. If you get bored, make sure to take a look at the Southern forum. We need to get some of them a get well soon card. They aren’t sick, just mean and they need to do better! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted Tuesday at 12:38 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:38 AM 18z EPS members: 18z EPS individual snow panels: 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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