Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 @Carvers Gap 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: IF there is an energy handoff, the energy would handoff to Savanah from TN. I have seen that happen, but that is really rare. When you say things like this a wooly worm loses its fur. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 FTR, the GFS is straight loaded on this run. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 The UKIE was better for the east and worse for the west that run. It's been slowing trending north the last couple of days and the Euro has pretty closely mirrored it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Euro has begun on weatherbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 8 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: @Carvers Gap I think this storm is going to turn the corner. Lots of ingredients in play for a big winter storm - western ridge, NAO, cold source, and room to climb. That gif is a really good illustration of each GEFS member's track. So, one can really see the differences in the model - and there are not many. The biggest thing to work out is whether there is a transfer of energy to the coast. Again, with these big storms, it is not uncommon for that to happen in E TN. Blend the CMC, UK, and GFS...pretty good track and storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Pain is part of following snow in the South. 50 minutes ago, Hurricaneguy said: Fully convinced this will be a whole lotta nothing for East TN. I was in the warm nose last Jan. Still salty about it. Winters are just not the same anymore. Same system dropped 6 inches 10 miles to my northwest, Soddy Daisy north of Chattanooga. Eastern part of Chatty proper got nothing, nada, zilch. I get sharp cut-offs, but that was a new level of cruelty. Think positive thoughts. I believe cold air will be in place. Handoff issues are a risk; and related, the lower precip rates could allow the surface warm nose. GFS can't decide whether to screw Middle Tennessee or the Great Valley. We've seen both either side of the Plateau. Euro has decreasing precip rates but holds the temps in line. Could still be a low spot at the handoff, but the Euro doesn't really blank that spot (wherever it ends up). Or, perhaps we get a classic snow for everyone slider! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, nrgjeff said: Or, perhaps we get a classic snow for everyone slider. When people say things like this, a wooly worm gets its fur back. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Still kind of hard to tell what the Euro is going to do, it looks like the whole thing is kicking out of Baja, but I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 4 minutes ago, *Flash* said: At work. Is there a recent NBM available? Curious to see what everything put together looks like as of now. The hype train is really getting going today on social media. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Based on current modeling, do you guys think overcoming dry air will be a concern, or do you believe precip will be heavy enough to saturate the entire column? Nothing more frustrating than a virga storm… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 A little more precip. makes it north this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, BNAwx said: Based on current modeling, do you guys think overcoming dry air will be a concern, or do you believe precip will be heavy enough to saturate the entire column? Nothing more frustrating than a virga storm… As it looks right now on the Euro I'd say that will def. be a concern at onset. Maybe not so much on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 500 mb: surface: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 That's at least a better run of the Euro. When the UKIE improved a bit, I expected it would as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 It wasn't huge, but I have gone from .15 qpf to .22 since last night. A few more bumps like that and we might be talking 3 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kasper Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 42 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Euro has begun on weatherbell. Gimme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Unless something drastically changes at 500...there is no moisture transport into the DGZ for eastern half of the state with the way the system is occluding on approach. The only way to overcome the 500 is with UVV's and so far that's not showing up. Hope I'm 100% wrong but this system has sleet fest written all over it to me. 500 really hasn't changed much the last 24 hrs roughly. Folks from west to western half middle TN look to be in better shape (closer to the 500 comma). 12z GFS and EURO 500 RH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 6 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Unless something drastically changes at 500...there is no moisture transport into the DGZ for eastern half of the state with the way the system is occluding on approach. The only way to overcome the 500 is with UVV's and so far that's not showing up. Hope I'm 100% wrong but this system has sleet fest written all over it to me. 500 really hasn't changed much the last 24 hrs roughly. Folks from west to western half middle TN look to be in better shape (closer to the 500 comma). 12z GFS and EURO 500 RH Sleet is better than freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 The divergence between the Euro and GFS happens here for the east..if the GFS is correct, the eastern valley would benefit from the moisture flow coming up as part of the energy transfer toward the coast...Euro keeps the lid shut. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 The EPS mean increased board wide vs 0z. Small trend but at least in a good direction. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 NBM and ECMWF are all in line with the WPC. Inject me with more 12Z EC, fewer hand-off complications. If we can reel it in another 36-48 hours of modeling, WPC has pretty good probs this far out! Update: Nashville briefing has 56-60% one inch or greater Friday. Chart is not public yet. 14 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 The 18z NAM just looks like it is ready to go. Hey, I know it's the NAM, but at least we have a storm in range of the NAM!!!!....after tracking this pattern for a month. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 The ECWF-AI had about .3-.4" of QPF for the whole state. Extreme southern counties were around .5". 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 18z ICON looks much healthier across the state 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 ICON looking beefy. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Still some lingering flurries in the east, but much beefier on that pass! 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Significant changes at 500 on the icon..that's what we need from this storm. 500 rolls forward with the surface low....we don't end up with the massive dry slot. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 The Euro AI has been locked on since day 7, it may or may not be right but it's consistent. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Let's hope the ICON leads the charge into a Happy Hour to remember! 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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