1/10-1/12 Southern Slider

[Reb]

Time to get this thread going.

[John1122]

Incredibly tough to model situation as little pieces of energy fly around, each model run seems to handle them with a small difference. That makes a big difference in the final outcome. The Canadian seems to be playing catch up, as it has often shown what the other models were showing the day before. It's slower and more amped and would be a major ice/sleet storm for us. Hopefully it's not correct.

[John1122]

UKIE is suppressed after being close to perfect at 0z.  It's going to be a hard week of model runs unless they can by some miracle get a clearer picture of the different bits of energy.

[Hillbilly]

[tnweathernut]

Didn’t realize we had a thread for the late week event.

Late week likely has a ceiling keeping a positively tilted trough.  This isn’t a terrible thing for a more widespread snow, however it also provides the environment where we lose lift and the moisture feed drys up the further east you go.  The higher resolution Euro may be correct in picking this up.  Better for temps, worse for totals, especially east and northeast through the mid south into the southern apps.  

Still a ways to go, but good to see modeling start to come together around a general track as we get closer.  Let’s see if we can reel in a winter event, regardless of size.

[tnweathernut]

Wondering if we can bend the flow enough for a nice 2-4 to 3-6 type overrunning event with good temps.  The other two options are we don’t bend it enough and whiff or bend it too much and get more precip but have temp issues.  I think the latter is the least likely solution. …….  

[TellicoWx]

Still not sold on this system for the east side of the state...think western guys will do ok. If the system is too consilidated...cutter city and waa (more interaction with the GL low)...too sheared and lift into the DGZ may become an issue. As per usual...tight window it has to work with.

[*Flash*]

Man, this thread has me hungry for snow and Arby's all of a sudden. I don't expect we maintain course but here's hoping we accomplish that with less of a cutting solution. 

[ShawnEastTN]

Even with some of the model flip flopping I feel pretty optimistic that we are going to see a classic southern slider.  Snow amounts I don't know, I do agree with tnweathernut that there is a good probability of weakening for Eastern areas but still think it may be a decent event.  The fear of a cutter I think is less but not zero.  Hoping any low in the lakes is very weak and very north like Lake Superior rather than Lake Erie which sort of makes sense it would be and our southern low is the dominant/stronger of the two keeping the stronger energy south with no or very little interaction or transfer south to North.  Think tomorrow's modeling forward will dial in better with the Arctic air settling into place and today's Ohio valley storm mostly complete and moving out of the picture.

[*Flash*]

26 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Even with some of the model flip flopping I feel pretty optimistic that we are going to see a classic southern slider.  Snow amounts I don't know, I do agree with tnweathernut that there is a good probability of weakening for Eastern areas but still think it may be a decent event.  The fear of a cutter I think is less but not zero.  Hoping any low in the lakes is very weak and very north like Lake Superior rather than Lake Erie which sort of makes sense it would be and our southern low is the dominant/stronger of the two keeping the stronger energy south with no or very little interaction or transfer south to North.  Think tomorrow's modeling forward will dial in better with the Arctic air settling into place and today's Ohio valley storm mostly complete and moving out of the picture.

I agree. I feel better about recent trends and at least being close to appreciable snow accumulation. The thermal details will sort themselves but I do think we have a genuine 'look ahead' within 5 days. Hopefully, this system holds together through the transfers, granted I know many of us would gladly take a few inches and cash out. 

[John1122]

The ICON was making a go for most of us, crushed western areas and was snowing in the midstate and north of 40 in the East as the run ended. Mixed south of 40 in East Tn with ground temps in the 20s.

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GFS phased better by 81....let's see where it takes us.

[Carvers Gap]

Should be good.....

[John1122]

I think Western areas are close to locking this one in.

[John1122]

I think it's gonna peter out for Eastern areas like the Euro, but I hope not.

[Carvers Gap]

So, the low in the Lakes is diving into the back of the low from the Southwest.  If it can actually pull that off during future runs....very big storm. 

[John1122]

Actually warm nosing the east.

[matt9697]

Looks promising for middle TN but hesitant to sign off just yet

[Carvers Gap]

MRX mentioned southwest flow in front of the storm.  Looks like it is going to gain some latitude.  Let's see how much.  Just another iteration of the scenario.  

That is gonna be an inland runner.  IF it actually takes that track, it should be significantly bigger.  Good, good run.

[John1122]

I hope that downsloping doesn't effect the eastern areas like the GFS just showed. Nor the warm nose the southern areas. We just need one boardwide storm where no one has issues! It was close last year but those same eastern areas weren't quite cold enough.

[matt9697]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

So, the low in the Lakes is diving into the back of the low from the Southwest.  If it can actually pull that off during future runs....very big storm. 

Would seem to be a long duration event though that has to count for something!

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, matt9697 said:

Would seem to be a long duration event though that has to count for something!

I wasn't paying attention.  When watching at 3 hour increments, I just assume it is going faster than I think it is!!!  That is a really, really good track.  I look more at track at this range.  

[John1122]

It worked itself out for us all almost.  I hate seeing the little micro climate issues for folks.

[matt9697]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

I wasn't paying attention.  When watching at 3 hour increments, I just assume it is going faster than I think it is!!!  That is a really, really good track.  I look more at track at this range.  

Would be a different storm than what we are used to in that we are used to hearing that there will be some melting because of the warm ground, by Friday, everything should be chilled to the bone!

[Reb]

Large swath of backside snow that wasn’t there for 12z

[Carvers Gap]

The thing with big storms that I often see, we almost always deal with some energy going up the eastern valley when there is an inland runner.  IF (stress IF) that is a really solution, that would be much, much bigger IMHO.  That is a boomer.  There should be no low over the Lakes.  It came right on down the Plains.  If it does that, we are possibly in business.  Even though I get downsloped on that run, I take that 10/10 times in my local.  Foothills folks would likely have a different answe

[matt9697]

Just now, matt9697 said:

Would be a different storm than what we are used to in that we are used to hearing that there will be some melting because of the warm ground, by Friday, everything should be chilled to the bone!

Would also be a unique situation for the mid atlantic, one would think that they would still have snow on the ground from the current storm, then adding another several inches. 

[Carvers Gap]

That is a Panhandle to Hatteras track.  E TN usually does just fine with those.  The southwest flow in front of the system is a problem.  However, if it turns the corner cold will slam into the northwest quadrant of that storm.

[John1122]

Mega ice storm for the areas along the Apps and south of 40 in East Tennessee that run. Topped off by a couple inches of snow or more.

[TellicoWx]

Personally at this range I would take what the 18z GFS spit out and run...energy diving into the backside of a low near Pensacola. Would have a some mixing potential on front side..but once the coma head passed over should be fun times...just need 500 to dig a touch more.