Ravens94 Posted Saturday at 07:55 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:55 PM That vort on the NAM is just bitter sweet strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted Saturday at 07:56 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:56 PM HRRR is just beautiful. 8-12 inches region wide. #BeatDown 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Saturday at 07:57 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:57 PM 18z NAM definitely moving south through 14... let's see if it continues You can see it if you toggle the radar map on TT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted Saturday at 07:57 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:57 PM 8 minutes ago, mappy said: I said 6-8” this morning. I still like it. Maybe low end if the band doesn’t set up near/overhead Yup! Great call for up there. You guys should have fantastic ratios (11:1 or better) for the entire event. It’s going to be a winter wonderland around the region and I for one am here for it! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Saturday at 07:58 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:58 PM Dead same position drier on north end due to stronger high so far early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Saturday at 07:58 PM Share Posted Saturday at 07:58 PM NAM is about 30-40 miles south baaed on H5 vort. Doesn’t sound like much, but could make a big difference in qpf and thermals 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Saturday at 08:00 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:00 PM Just now, Terpeast said: NAM is about 30-40 miles south baaed on H5 vort. Doesn’t sound like much, but could make a big difference in qpf and thermals Low is also 2mb stronger out there. Vort is amped pretty good despite being a bit south. A stronger vort penetrates the confluence better later on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted Saturday at 08:00 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:00 PM 10 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Question for the Mets is, on average, as I know every storm and model performance is different, when does the HRRR reach its credible range? For large scale synoptic events, I start monitoring trends after 24 hrs. It’s bread and butter is inside 12 hrs. Convection is a whole different story, but thankfully this isn’t convectively driven. It’s fun to look at now, but I’m very certain it’ll change. But man would it be sweet if it were right right now….. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted Saturday at 08:00 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:00 PM 28 minutes ago, deer said: Yellow is creeping south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Saturday at 08:01 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:01 PM HRRR was about to give a happy ending after hr 48. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Saturday at 08:02 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:02 PM Just now, CoastalWx said: HRRR was about to give a happy ending after he 48. Most of us already finished once by then. Would be a reload for the backside love. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted Saturday at 08:02 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:02 PM 25 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I have you and the northern MD crew around 5-9”. You and PSU should be in a good spot for good ratios and a decent band that setups up along the topography. This is usually a good storm for one of those. Sounds good to me! I agree when it comes to ratios up here. Even in more marginal events we tend to get 10:1/12:1. A lot of times we do even better than 15:1 as long as were not getting pine needles lol. If we get into good banding we can do 20:1. I would love to see the back end trend a bit better. We could really go to town on ratios with that. I think this will be a fun event. So far this year just feels different from the past several. Most of the sub forum should be satisfied when it's all said and done. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Saturday at 08:03 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:03 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Saturday at 08:03 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:03 PM 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Low is also 2mb stronger out there. Vort is amped pretty good despite being a bit south. A stronger vort penetrates the confluence better later on. confluence is clearly up here weakening and leaving stage right to my NNE over to Long Beach Island NJ.... The winds here in Media Delaware County were gusting past 40 mph about an hour ago and now have dramatically diminished. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted Saturday at 08:04 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:04 PM Definitely a little colder out front. Every bit helps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted Saturday at 08:04 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:04 PM 22 minutes ago, Terpeast said: FYI Okay, I will let you all know if I start sleet or snow at 5:00pm tomorrow because the models still don’t agree! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Saturday at 08:05 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:05 PM 14 minutes ago, mappy said: I said 6-8” this morning. I still like it. Maybe low end if the band doesn’t set up near/overhead That’s probably a good guess. I just realized where you lived I still think N of DC might be sweet spot but I guess we’ll see. Good event regardless. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Saturday at 08:05 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:05 PM 850s near 70mph out of the south this run down south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Saturday at 08:05 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:05 PM Confluence about the same. Closed low is stronger, but heights in front are a bit lower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Saturday at 08:06 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:06 PM 21 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I imagine you do well with this setup. Sterling/Ashburn area should stay most, if not all snow. Hopefully the early morning hrs on Monday are nice and thumpy Since you’re giving out snowfall ranges for various places do you think the Ashburn/Reston area should be in a solid 6-10 range? Seems like at this point the WAA should get us well and if we’re lucky with the coastal we could her higher end amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Saturday at 08:07 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:07 PM Just now, Terpeast said: Confluence about the same. Closed low is stronger, but heights in front are a bit lower. The vort and corresponding flow are intense this run. I’d expect a pretty robust shield of QPF with that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Saturday at 08:10 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:10 PM Beast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted Saturday at 08:10 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:10 PM 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Since you’re giving out snowfall ranges for various places do you think the Ashburn/Reston area should be in a solid 6-10 range? Seems like at this point the WAA should get us well and if we’re lucky with the coastal we could her higher end amounts Oh yeah. I would say 5” at the worst and 10-12” if everything just breaks perfectly. I’d say 6-10” is a great call for your neck of the woods. I’m sure that’s what Sterling and WPC are rolling with as well. The backend fun with the vort pass is going to be the biggest question mark and if that breaks properly, there will be a lot of happy people in here. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Saturday at 08:10 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:10 PM Snowing in DC metro at 05z Monday on 18z NAM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Saturday at 08:11 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:11 PM This should be a smasher based on upper levels 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Saturday at 08:11 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:11 PM Just now, yoda said: Snowing in DC metro at 95z Monday on 18z NAM Late start 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted Saturday at 08:11 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:11 PM Just now, yoda said: Snowing in DC metro at 95z Monday on 18z NAM DC seeing snow in the 4th dimension 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Saturday at 08:13 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:13 PM This one gets rid of the weird dry slot at 12z 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Saturday at 08:13 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:13 PM Just now, MillvilleWx said: Oh yeah. I would say 5” at the worst and 10-12” if everything just breaks perfectly. I’d say 6-10” is a great call for your neck of the woods. I’m sure that’s what Sterling and WPC are rolling with as well. The backend fun with the vort pass is going to be the biggest question mark and if that breaks properly, there will be a lot of happy people in here. When do you think we could have a good handle on the vort pass and backend snow situation? It seems that the models that are the best with the WAA for my area sorta miss with the backend and vise versa. Want to make an updated forecast for my friends and family but am waiting for more agreement on that last part, and thanks for the post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Saturday at 08:13 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:13 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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