January 5-6 Thing II: STORM MODE

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 15Z NBM.

Does  LWX actually use this model  for their forecasts?

[jayyy]

Forecasts are always a range.

Thanks, I know. Usually their maps are a bit tighter than 4-8” though. But again, it makes sense given where things stand currently.

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, mitchnick said:

For mby, I'll go with 3-5" for now, which is the optimistic side of the likely 2-4".

I like 4-6” for you with a potential for up to 8”. I think you’ll have some really good ratios to work with most of the storm. 7H FGEN should be best along the M/D with the 85H FGEN further south. Someone in MD/VA/DE is getting 10+ out of this.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

Does  LWX actually use this model  for their forecasts?

This is the national blend of models, takes into account many of the top global and CAM models along with some other inputs. You can search up on precisely what it is and how weighting works. 

[Terpeast]

FYI

[HighStakes]

Just now, mitchnick said:

For mby, I'll go with 3-5" for now, which is the optimistic side of the likely 2-4".

Reasonable. 4 is my bar. Hoping of course for 6 plus. Anything less than 4 will be disappointing considering how much time we have vested in this event.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

I like 4-6” for you with a potential for up to 8”. I think you’ll have some really good ratios to work with most of the storm. 7H FGEN should be best along the M/D with the 85H FGEN further south. Someone in MD/VA/DE is getting 10+ out of this.

For the VA part, I hope its me haha 

But probably winchester and lottesville

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

Does  LWX actually use this model  for their forecasts?

Ohhhhhh yes. We don’t use the snowfall verbatim, but we do utilize the QPF as a base point and generate our own ratios with the NBM mean Snow Ratio a typical starting point. It’s all about know how to interpret the model and use to your advantage. It’s probability fields are also solid. 

[DDweatherman]

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, packfan98 said:

Call map from DT. Good luck everyone. 
 

 

 Ok how accurate  are his maps normally? Lol

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, Terpeast said:

For the VA part, I hope its me haha 

But probably winchester

I imagine you do well with this setup. Sterling/Ashburn area should stay most, if not all snow. Hopefully the early morning hrs on Monday are nice and thumpy 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

For mby, I'll go with 3-5" for now, which is the optimistic side of the likely 2-4".

Forgot to mention, for updates, visit my home page at:

https://famoushotweiner.com/

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

Ohhhhhh yes. We don’t use the snowfall verbatim, but we do utilize the QPF as a base point and generate our own ratios with the NBM mean Snow Ratio a typical starting point. It’s all about know how to interpret the model and use to your advantage. It’s probability fields are also solid. 

Ahhh ok nice!

[DDweatherman]

Even more of a moneyshot frame for many of us in the sub

[MillvilleWx]

2 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Reasonable. 4 is my bar. Hoping of course for 6 plus. Anything less than 4 will be disappointing considering how much time we have vested in this event.

I have you and the northern MD crew around 5-9”. You and PSU should be in a good spot for good ratios and a decent band that setups up along the topography. This is usually a good storm for one of those. 

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Even more of a moneyshot frame for many of us in the sub

Nice CAD if the thermals are accurate

[DDweatherman]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

I have you and the northern MD crew around 5-9”. You and PSU should be in a good spot for good ratios and a decent band that setups up along the topography. This is usually a good storm for one of those. 

That’s been my optimism here around ski liberty. Elevation and N/W areas will have a ton of good h7 forcing and great ratios. We’ve seen the deathband set up a lot here. Even last year I did and grabbed 6” in a storm where Westminster had 0.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

4 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Reasonable to give a range given some of the uncertainties we face. Seems like they considered our local climo and a blend of models for that call.

Yeah that looks like a really good map. 

LOL HRRR is a beat down.  10 inches by afternoon and looks like part 2 forming. 

[clskinsfan]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

Even more of a moneyshot frame for many of us in the sub

 

Its a beatdown. It has a nasty dryslot and drives the primary up into central WV. But this is right at that point. No clue what it would do with the ULL after this. But a serious hit on the front end. And should make the northern crew feel a little better. 

 

[bncho]

I like 5-8" for my area. Not going too high or too low because of the model uncertainities.

[yoda]

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

Afternoon winter disco from 237pm

[T. August]

Long range HRRR has a very smooth 8-10” from southern PA down to southern MD.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z HRRR, lock it in!!!!

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, DDweatherman said:

That’s been my optimism here around ski liberty. Elevation and N/W areas will have a ton of good h7 forcing and great ratios. We’ve seen the deathband set up a lot here. Even last year I did and grabbed 6” in a storm where Westminster had 0.

I have to come visit your area at some point! I haven’t been to Ski Liberty in like 15-20 years. It’s beautiful up there 

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I have you and the northern MD crew around 5-9”. You and PSU should be in a good spot for good ratios and a decent band that setups up along the topography. This is usually a good storm for one of those. 

I said 6-8” this morning. I still like it. Maybe low end if the band doesn’t set up near/overhead 

[mitchnick]

Just now, T. August said:

Long range HRRR has a very smooth 8-10” from southern PA down to southern MD.

Question for the Mets is, on average, as I know every storm and model performance is different, when does the HRRR reach its credible range?

[Steve25]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z HRRR, lock it in!!!!

The short range models are giving Baltimore a lot of love. Are they probably out of their most accurate forecast range? Yes. Am I still going to cling to them? Yes. 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Its a beatdown. It has a nasty dryslot and drives the primary up into central WV. But this is right at that point. No clue what it would do with the ULL after this. But a serious hit on the front end. And should make the northern crew feel a little better. 

 

All I’ll say is this… if I had no access to surface maps and just saw pressure, h5 and mid level maps, I’d assume the surface truth would be a nice hit from S PA to N VA. Not a big high pressure dome to constrict the precip shield and I’d think with the vort set up this would be a juicy storm. 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

I have to come visit your area at some point! I haven’t been to Ski Liberty in like 15-20 years. It’s beautiful up there 

One of the best places to be when it snows. I’m tired of hearing the guns going and seeing the little snow plumes from my yard without having real snow cover. We’ve maximized a few events dating back to last year and the event in 2021 when the Catoctins and south mountain corridor jack’ed. 

[yoda]

RNK moved everyone into warnings as well