January 5-6 Thing II: STORM MODE

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

also this exact event is why people shouldn't fret over ENSO. some of you guys might have half of your yearly average by Jan 6 while north of 78 smokes cirrus as we're heading into a favorable pattern. I kinda love the irony

I think next weekends event ends up a bomb for you guys. Would be nice to get the entire East Coast buried by the end of the month. 

[Amorphous Iodine]

23 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS percentages: 1, 3, 6 and 12 inches

So 75% of the time it’s right 100% of the time for parts of Virginia?

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

Call map from DT. Good luck everyone. 
 

 

His maps never make sense lol

Area of 8-12, then the next line out is 8.. I am in between, so 8 to 8. 8 it is!

[yoda]

@MillvilleWx

I'm going to assume another conference call tonight for upgrades to warnings in tomorrow mornings package for PHL/AKQ/LWX/CTP?

[Master of Disaster]

Did some research this morning. The last plowable snowfall event of 4 to 8 inches for DMV was Jan 3rd 2022. They are well overdue for a good storm. 

[stormy]

My 4 model blend is 6 inches. 4 inches GFS, 11 inches ECMWF............    1 inch of sleet and .20 freezing rain.

My call while the models are still at WAR...............   4-7 mixed with sleet and freezing rain for Augusta.       5-9 mostly snow for Winchester/D.C.

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

@MillvilleWx

I'm going to assume another conference call tonight for upgrades to warnings in tomorrow mornings package for PHL/AKQ/LWX/CTP?

Fortunately after a watch is issued, warnings are collaborated via office to office and not WPC necessary. We have had some times we were asked to come on in more delicate circumstances for mediation if one office is on the fence or not. Not going to be needed this go around. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

3 minutes ago, Master of Disaster said:

Did some research this morning. The last plowable snowfall event of 4 to 8 inches for DMV was Jan 3rd 2022. They are well overdue for a good storm. 

We had one last year of about 3-4", but nothing like this. 

[TSSN+]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

His maps never make sense lol

Area of 8-12, then the next line out is 8.. I am in between, so 8 to 8. 8 it is!

You are getting exactly 8” and not a flake more, he is confident 

[MillvilleWx]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

His maps never make sense lol

Area of 8-12, then the next line out is 8.. I am in between, so 8 to 8. 8 it is!

I’m surprised he doesn’t just post a screenshot of the ECMWF and call it his forecast. Basically what is usually is. 
 

Model blend of 90% ECMWF and 10% DT 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

Fortunately after a watch is issued, warnings are collaborated via office to office and not WPC necessary. We have had some times we were asked to come on in more delicate circumstances for mediation if one office is on the fence or not. Not going to be needed this go around. 

You don’t think the CTP/LWX border counties have a questionable decision on advisory vs warning at this juncture? We know game time could verify warning level with banding and the maps posted the last few minutes regarding 700 fronto, but there is disrepancy on verifying warning criteria north of BWI over towards FDK/HGR. 

[weathercoins]

CWG teasing that they’re about to up their snow totals (last map they had was ok I thought) https://x.com/capitalweather/status/1875615910687559981?s=46

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 minute ago, weathercoins said:

CWG teasing that they’re about to up their snow totals (last map they had was ok I thought) https://x.com/capitalweather/status/1875615910687559981?s=46

That's not what they said. It could be simply tightening the boundaries.

[jayyy]

Surprised anyone here actually still tunes in to their forecasts tbh.

[weathercoins]

1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

That's not what they said. It could be simply tightening the boundaries.

True, although posted just before that about NWS upping totals for DC and they may refine also 

[bncho]

CWG goes with 5-8" for DC. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

CWG goes with 5-8" for DC. 

Their boom/bust scenarios are very realistic. 

[MillvilleWx]

10 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

You don’t think the CTP/LWX border counties have a questionable decision on advisory vs warning at this juncture? We know game time could verify warning level with banding and the maps posted the last few minutes regarding 700 fronto, but there is disrepancy on verifying warning criteria north of BWI over towards FDK/HGR. 

It might be tough for CTP but I think LWX is square in the line for a WSW. ECMWF has been a rock recently, and that’s good, but it’s primary ensembles that make up the NBM have this a bit further north. The 3km NAM is a good indication that the EC will likely correct north a bit. I could be wrong and everything shifts south from the CAMs, but it’s tough to deviate hard from the NBM at this range. It’s typically good with the axis of QPF. We’ve seen this type of setup before. A strong 85H LLJ will typically favor a bump north at game time. Something the Nest and some of the other CAMs might be picking up on. We shall see! I do think LWX goes with warnings and CTP will be on the edge for the southern tier of counties. 

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

It might be tough for CTP but I think LWX is square in the line for a WSW. ECMWF has been a rock recently, and that’s good, but it’s primary ensembles that make up the NBM have this a bit further north. The 3km NAM is a good indication that the EC will likely correct north a bit. I could be wrong and everything shifts south from the CAMs, but it’s tough to deviate hard from the NBM at this range. It’s typically good with the axis of QPF. We’ve seen this type of setup before. A strong 85H LLJ will typically favor a bump north at game time. Something the Nest and some of the other CAMs might be picking up on. We shall see! I do think LWX goes with warnings and CTP will be on the edge for the southern tier of counties. 

I could see CTP nudging the Mason-Dixon counties into an advisory then maybe a late upgrade if things go well up there. 

[psuhoffman]

For the northern crew of course it’s possible we get fringed, yes it happens no matter how often the southerners think it doesn’t (in the grand scheme it doesn’t matter because we benefit way more than we lose over the long term) 

BUT…usually when we get fringed bad we were on the outside of the best lift and the qpf cutoff on guidance at this point.  80-90% trend north the final 24-36 hours. Actually what really happens is guidance struggles to depict the banding that happens near the h7 fgen that’s usually near the northern edge of the qpf field.  They also tend to place that too far south by some amount until the very end. Almost every time I was the jack 48 hours out it ended up north of me. Yes I still did better than everyone south so it’s totally understandable that’s all they remember if I got 4” and they got nada but often I was supposed to get 8” 48 hrs out!  And most of the times we got fringed we were outside the northern fringe of qpf completely at this point.  Even the ones that missed us shifted the northern edge north some at the end just not enough to save us if the fringe area was down near DC or worse at 48 hrs. 
 

No it’s not universal. There was a storm in Jan 2019 that got squashed some at the last min and there was no north adjustment but that’s the only example I can remember and I can count like 10 off the top of my head recently to at did shift the north periphery of banding north. 
 

So I’ll play the odds this is one of the 90% not the 10.  Synoptically I don’t see a compelling reason for the copious moisture transport from the gulf with a healthy wave getting onto KY to get shunted that badly.  This is a storm type that we usually do well. If this is the rare exception oh well but I’m not gonna overly stress it unless we see signs it’s going off the rails like either another shift south this evening or we get to 24 hours and there is no north movement. Until then I feel ok where we are   

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[DDweatherman]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

For the northern crew of course it’s possible we get fringed, yes it happens no matter how often the southerners think it doesn’t (in the grand scheme it doesn’t matter because we benefit way more than we lose over the long term) 

BUT…usually when we get fringed bad we were on the outside of the best lift and the qpf cutoff on guidance at this point.  80-90% trend north the final 24-36 hours. Actually what really happens is guidance struggles to depict the banding that happens near the h7 fgen that’s usually near the northern edge of the qpf field.  They also tend to place that too far south by some amount until the very end. Almost every time I was the jack 48 hours out it ended up north of me. Yes I still did better than everyone south so it’s totally understandable that’s all they remember if I got 4” and they got nada but often I was supposed to get 8” 48 hrs out!  And most of the times we got fringed we were outside the  even the ones that missed us shifted the northern edge north some at the end just not enough to save us if the fringe area was down near DC or worse at 48 hrs. 
 

No it’s not universal. There was a storm in Jan 2019 that got squashed some at the last min and there was no north adjustment but that’s the only example I can remember and I can count like 10 off the top of my head recently to at did shift the north periphery of banding north. 
 

So I’ll play the odds this is one of the 90% not the 10.  Synoptically I don’t see a compelling reason for the copious moisture transport from the gulf with a healthy wave getting onto KY to get shunted that badly.  This is a storm type that we usually do well. If this is the rare exception oh well but I’m not gonna overly stress it unless we see signs it’s going off the rails like either another shift south this evening or we get to 24 hours and there is no north movement. Until then I feel ok where we are   

I have very little to add to this, basically what I’ve been echoing as well. Let’s avoid more south activities from here on out. 

[TSSN+]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

It’s been tough sledding. Literally.

 

[yoda]

RLX issued warnings for their zones bordering the LWX CWA just now

[deer]

[jayyy]

Reasonable to give a range given some of the uncertainties we face. Seems like they considered our local climo and a blend of models for that call.

[clskinsfan]

18Z HRRR is beautiful. Snow and 19 degrees out here.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Reasonable to give a range given some of the uncertainties we face. Seems like they considered our local climo and a blend of models for that call.

Forecasts are always a range.

[mitchnick]

For mby, I'll go with 3-5" for now, which is the optimistic side of the likely 2-4".

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Reasonable to give a range given some of the uncertainties we face. Seems like they considered our local climo and a blend of models for that call.

The range is the 1st and 3rd quartile (25th and 75th percentile). The mean forecast is the point forecast where you can select it on the LWX Winter page.