DDweatherman Posted Saturday at 05:32 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:32 PM Needless to say 30-50 miles will mean a ton at game time for some folks. I’d bet the 1” to 6” gradient will be 40 miles or so on the NW/north edge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Saturday at 05:33 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:33 PM 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Heaviest axis DID move south tho Its bouncing around a bit, but no trend, yet. 12z is essentially the same as the 0z run. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted Saturday at 05:33 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:33 PM To think that Ocean City could get more snow than DC/Baltimore. Crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Saturday at 05:33 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:33 PM With all the possible mixing talked about near DC.. how is places further south looking at a foot or more when they are about 100 miles south lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted Saturday at 05:33 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:33 PM This is not the type of setup that usually trends south. Almost never happens with a major system coming out of the MS Valley. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Saturday at 05:34 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:34 PM Just now, Quasievil said: To think that Ocean City could get more snow than DC/Baltimore. Crazy. No so crazy. I can remember at least 3 or 4 time it's happened within the last 6 years. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Saturday at 05:34 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:34 PM Just now, Quasievil said: To think that Ocean City could get more snow than DC/Baltimore. Crazy. That's happened pretty often in recent winters. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted Saturday at 05:34 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:34 PM 10:1 is always underdone in a cold storm, but Kuchera tends to run really high. Splitting the difference makes sense in areas that will stay all snow. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Saturday at 05:35 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:35 PM Just now, Amped said: This is not the type of setup that usually trends south. Almost never happens with a major system coming out of the MS Valley. The only way I’d expect it to do that is if the low actually took a south of east vector across the valley. It is a potent s/w and there’s no HP. It’s true that the sampling is light in the area of the lobe in Canada, but no real sign of north movement yet. This is a set up where it can jump 50 miles north last minute, but no indication of that at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Saturday at 05:36 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:36 PM Just now, high risk said: 10:1 is always underdone in a cold storm, but Kuchera tends to run really high. Splitting the difference makes sense in areas that will stay all snow. So those on the northern end...if kuchera has us around 6 we oughta expect around 4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Saturday at 05:36 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 05:36 PM 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Its bouncing around a bit, but no trend, yet. 12z is essentially the same as the 0z run. Correct. Was just describing the heaviest axis made a move south, not the whole storm. Did preface it and say it def wasn’t the Ukmet disaster 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Saturday at 05:37 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:37 PM 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: That's happened pretty often in recent winters. I’ve experienced practically no benefit in the snow dept since moving to Frederick a few years ago. It’s possible that dc has actually received more snow than mby because of that early Jan ‘22 storm. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Saturday at 05:37 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 05:37 PM Anybody with WB post the non Kuchera? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Saturday at 05:37 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:37 PM Euro stays closed off longer than the UK. But not as long as the GFS. Probably the happy medium? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Saturday at 05:38 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 05:38 PM Regardless, still think 4-8 is a safe bet imby 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Saturday at 05:38 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:38 PM Just now, stormtracker said: Correct. Was just describing the heaviest axis made a move south, not the whole storm. Did preface it and say it def wasn’t the Ukmet disaster I think we just discount the Ukie. And the Icon. Like most actual forecasters do lol. Rarely see either mentioned in an AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Saturday at 05:38 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:38 PM 12 minutes ago, IronTy said: 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Anybody with WB post the non Kuchera? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted Saturday at 05:39 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:39 PM I was thinking 6-8 for Baltimore was a good, safe call. Starting to think 4-6 is better. No more south movement please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Saturday at 05:39 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:39 PM Just now, CAPE said: I think we just discount the Ukie. And the Icon. Like most actual forecasters do lol. Rarely see either mentioned in an AFD. I don't think I've ever seen the icon mentioned lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted Saturday at 05:40 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:40 PM The ICON was created for the sole purpose to hold us weenies off and have something to look at until the varsity models come out 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Saturday at 05:40 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:40 PM Just now, Steve25 said: I was thinking 6-8 for Baltimore was a good, safe call. Starting to think 4-6 is better. No more south movement please I haven't moved much from 4-6" the last two days. Seen this movie too many times the last 6 years, unfortunately. The "north trend" close to gametime hasn't happened in awhile. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Saturday at 05:41 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:41 PM Just now, LeesburgWx said: The ICON was created for the sole purpose to hold us weenies off and have something to look at until the varsity models come out gap filler 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted Saturday at 05:43 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:43 PM 31 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Also at 51 the GFS is closed off at 500 in KY and the UK is not. So the GFS is trying to drive the surface low north. The UK is not. Crazy the difference this close to the event. That’s a bad habit of the gfs in the past which makes it even more puzzling and confusing as to how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Saturday at 05:47 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:47 PM 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: I haven't moved much from 4-6" the last two days. Seen this movie too many times the last 6 years, unfortunately. The "north trend" close to gametime hasn't happened in awhile. At this point I would expect reality to be somewhere in between the GFS and Euro simulations. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Saturday at 05:48 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:48 PM 4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: That’s a bad habit of the gfs in the past which makes it even more puzzling and confusing as to how this plays out. The NAM also closes it off and actually keeps our vort closed further eastward. NAM is a chump model but 3k iteration looks good for a lot of us and isn’t terribly different upstairs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Saturday at 05:50 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:50 PM 39 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Also at 51 the GFS is closed off at 500 in KY and the UK is not. So the GFS is trying to drive the surface low north. The UK is not. Crazy the difference this close to the event. What does the Euro do with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted Saturday at 05:51 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:51 PM 3 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: I don't think I've ever seen the icon mentioned lol Yeah the ICON is rarely part of any of our blends (especially QPF) at WPC. Verification numbers just don't justify it. Including the NAM12 outside of 48-60 hours, and the NAM Nest outside of 24-36 hours. UKMet is one that cannot be totally discounted (it did nail the Binghamton NY 40"+ snow event a few years back), but I really wish we (at NCEP) could get a hold of their ensemble suite. Obviously, the op ECMWF cannot be discounted (never can), but at least until tonight's runs, I'd still put more credence in the EC ensemble mean. I'm thinking (hoping?) the 12Z ECMWF is the 'low end' for those of us in the metro region north. Still think 6" is a good bar for DC and immediate metro. Interesting that DCA could very well make out better than BWI (how often does that happen?) 8 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Saturday at 05:58 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:58 PM 4 minutes ago, WxMan1 said: Still think 6" is a good bar for DC and immediate metro. Interesting that DCA could very well make out better than BWI (how often does that happen?) Uh...like every time since 2019? DC has outperformed BWI and Baltimore on every slider-like system that we've had since then. I'm kinda surprised folks aren't aware of that (but I get that this is a more DC focused forum). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Saturday at 05:59 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:59 PM 8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: What does the Euro do with it? I dont have access to the 51 panel at 12z on the Euro. But it is still closed off at 48 then open at 54. Seems to be in the middle of the GFS/UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted Saturday at 06:00 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:00 PM 00z tonight should be interesting. We’ll finally be within *roughly*24 hours of the onset, so hi res models will hold a lot more weight. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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