Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Sunday at 08:26 AM Share Posted Sunday at 08:26 AM 5 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: water is wet Moving into some pretty legit cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted Sunday at 08:27 AM Share Posted Sunday at 08:27 AM Well there’s one high-res model that supports that HRRR run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted Sunday at 08:29 AM Share Posted Sunday at 08:29 AM 33 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Even as a meteorologist, if the HRRR is even close to right for this setup, I will get a custom, "I <3 the HRRR" T-shirt and wear it to work on another set of night shifts. I don't think it'll be right, but this is getting bonkers. NAM is getting “bonkers”, too. May have to add “NAM” to your T-shirt, lol. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted Sunday at 08:30 AM Share Posted Sunday at 08:30 AM 1 minute ago, WVclimo said: Well there’s one high-res model that supports that HRRR run. They all kind of support it one way or another. Magnitude wise the Nest matches, RAP matches, the other CAMs are about 80%, but same footprint. I'm starting to wonder myself. I don't think the Nest or HRRR will be right, but even 80% of that is a crazy positive "bust" considering what most are forecasting. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted Sunday at 08:31 AM Share Posted Sunday at 08:31 AM 8 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: Damn georgetown bullseye Nice back end love too I'm curious how much happens during the lull from say noon to 5. How much steady light snow keeps falling throughout. looks like after dark Monday things should start getting pretty fun again for 3-5 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Sunday at 08:33 AM Share Posted Sunday at 08:33 AM Dynamic system. Lots of lightning over Kansas right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted Sunday at 08:33 AM Share Posted Sunday at 08:33 AM 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: They all kind of support it one way or another. Magnitude wise the Nest matches, RAP matches, the other CAMs are about 80%, but same footprint. I'm starting to wonder myself. I don't think the Nest or HRRR will be right, but even 80% of that is a crazy positive "bust" considering what most are forecasting. Looks like a solid 1-3" with the ULL. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted Sunday at 08:34 AM Share Posted Sunday at 08:34 AM Just now, Deck Pic said: Looks like a solid 1-3" with the ULL. Big parachutes too looking at soundings. Would be a gorgeous time to go for a Jebwalk in the city 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 08:36 AM Share Posted Sunday at 08:36 AM I just got home so I figured I would put out a map now that I have access to a computer. I will probably have to adjust this some tomorrow but this is my thinking right now. 12 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted Sunday at 08:38 AM Share Posted Sunday at 08:38 AM after lunch Monday might be the best timing for a nap. There will be a few hours that won't be very exciting. And the onset of the backside will be well modeled at that point. Nobody will miss it 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted Sunday at 08:41 AM Share Posted Sunday at 08:41 AM New products are out from LWX. Counties in the Great White North now have WS Warnings. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Sunday at 08:44 AM Share Posted Sunday at 08:44 AM Low is currently 1003mb. 6z NAM had 1005mb, 6z Hrr had 1002mb fwiw 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Sunday at 08:45 AM Share Posted Sunday at 08:45 AM 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I just got home so I figured I would put out a map now that I have access to a computer. I will probably have to adjust this some tomorrow but this is my thinking right now. Carroll county under warning for 5-9” up to 10-12” with banding. Right across the pa line im in advisory for 3-5” lol. Good office coordination there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Sunday at 08:47 AM Share Posted Sunday at 08:47 AM 07z RAP at 21hr is pretty wow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 08:53 AM Share Posted Sunday at 08:53 AM 4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Carroll county under warning for 5-9” up to 10-12” with banding. Right across the pa line im in advisory for 3-5” lol. Good office coordination there. There will be a sharp cutoff once you get north of where the banding close to the northern periphery sets up...but I think it will be like 20 miles further north that CTP does...which isn't that much of a difference. NWS thinks that sharp cutoff will be right near the PA line, I think it will be 20 miles into southern PA. I would include the southern most counties in PA but that's really only a one county difference which is nothing and a noise level error, but of course the people living in that one county don't want to hear that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Sunday at 08:55 AM Share Posted Sunday at 08:55 AM 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: There will be a sharp cutoff once you get north of where the banding close to the northern periphery sets up...but I think it will be like 20 miles further north that CTP does...which isn't that much of a difference. NWS thinks that sharp cutoff will be right near the PA line, I think it will be 20 miles into southern PA. I would include the southern most counties in PA but that's really only a one county difference which is nothing and a noise level error, but of course the people living in that one county don't want to hear that! True but also weird that the county west of me is in a warning then it’s advisory for a few southern counties than back to warning when it hits mount holly southern counties. But whatever I’ll take my upgrade when it comes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Sunday at 08:56 AM Share Posted Sunday at 08:56 AM Cold night.. high rates likely. Southern areas may stay frozen longer than the RAP/NAM have Richmond, VA is at 18F? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Sunday at 09:02 AM Share Posted Sunday at 09:02 AM They may want to upgrade this "10% chance" 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 09:02 AM Share Posted Sunday at 09:02 AM 4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: True but also weird that the county west of me is in a warning then it’s advisory for a few southern counties than back to warning when it hits mount holly southern counties. But whatever I’ll take my upgrade when it comes Can't say for sure...but the snowfall contours will probably sag southeast some across PA once east of the mountains due to the confluence increasing to the northeast. The storm starts to get compressed as it hits the effects of the 50/50. The odd part is the warnings going back north again near Philly. Some of that might be counties not following the exact lines they want, and some might be disagreement between CTP and PHI and lack of coordination as you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Sunday at 09:05 AM Share Posted Sunday at 09:05 AM Icon axis stayed the same but more qpf up north. Rgem bumped north again. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted Sunday at 09:18 AM Share Posted Sunday at 09:18 AM 1 hour ago, snowdude said: Um, WOW! Holy fooking MOLY!!!!!!! Dale City with 14 to 15 inches of pow? You gottabe kiddin' me!!!! The ENTIRE SUB under severe snow assault! Cleveland Park about 16 inches! Hell yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted Sunday at 09:19 AM Share Posted Sunday at 09:19 AM 1 minute ago, Jebman said: Holy fooking MOLY!!!!!!! Dale City with 14 to 15 inches of pow? You gottabe kiddin' me!!!! Time to move back for a Jebwalk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted Sunday at 09:21 AM Share Posted Sunday at 09:21 AM 1 minute ago, ravensrule said: Time to move back for a Jebwalk. I wonder if I should grab a flight to DCA lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted Sunday at 09:22 AM Share Posted Sunday at 09:22 AM 1 minute ago, Jebman said: I wonder if I should grab a flight to DCA lol Definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted Sunday at 09:23 AM Share Posted Sunday at 09:23 AM Everything looks to be locked in for a forum wide 6-12” event. I for one am not overly concerned about N Maryland, and in fact could see that being a secondary max given better ratios, no mixing concerns, and strong lift. That often happens on the north side of a sharp gradient. The hi-res models coming in wetter and more expansive on the northern edges do not come as a surprise to me. Regardless, looks like the best storm in years for many and well deserved. Hope you reel it in! 17 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted Sunday at 09:24 AM Share Posted Sunday at 09:24 AM Just now, Winter Wizard said: Everything looks to be locked in for a forum wide 6-12” event. I for one am not overly concerned about N Maryland, and in fact could see that being a secondary max given better ratios, no mixing concerns, and strong lift. That often happens on the north side of a sharp gradient. The hi-res models coming in wetter and more expansive on the northern edges do not come as a surprise to me. Regardless, looks like the best storm in years for many and well deserved. Hope you reel it in! Thanks for popping by with your insight, we appreciate it. Don’t be a stranger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted Sunday at 09:25 AM Share Posted Sunday at 09:25 AM 1 hour ago, LeesburgWx said: Woke up for a quick check and now trying to go back to sleep will be hard. Euro, HRRR, NAM are straight beat downs. We got HRRR’d and currently being NAM’d. I’m pushing all the chips in. It’s game time! If this HECS was a blackjack game, the entire sub would bankrupt the casino. I am so happy for you guys it isn't even funny. You suffered so bad last winter. You got this storm coming. You're definitely gonna reel this one in. Its going to be frigid for weeks. You are gonnabe digging snow and lots of it! There's another major storm behind this puppy, too. ENJOY! Get out there and savor long ecstatic jebwalks! Break out the stouts! 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted Sunday at 09:54 AM Share Posted Sunday at 09:54 AM GFS is colder/souther Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Sunday at 09:55 AM Share Posted Sunday at 09:55 AM 6z GFS remains dry and south.. gets DC to 6". Seems to snow quite a bit in Richmond. Big differences between GFS and NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Sunday at 10:14 AM Share Posted Sunday at 10:14 AM 9z RAP, 12-15" snow depth in DC. 3rd run in a row it's showed this. Maybe it's just a bad model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts