January 5-6 Thing II: STORM MODE

[winter_warlock]

11 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z CMC is a big hit -- all snow DC metro... prob EZF as well

Big hit for all or just south?

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm not going to lie, the model differences at this point just have me....confused.   Relative to our area, they are just all over the place.  

As much as the NAM can be the NAM, I won’t discount it totally even though it seems the warmest. Still time to adjust a bit.  I’ve learned to respect it when it shows these warm tongues.  Just something to keep in mind, but don’t lose sleep over it at this point. 

[87storms]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

It seems to me to be a 4-8 type storm if we are being realistic. Maybe some double digit spots. But this isnt a super juiced up bomb. 

Yea, it's gravitating towards a general 4-6" swath of snow across the region.  The confluence to the north is just really thorny at this point.  If anything, the models have overall ticked a bit south again since 0z (at least to my eyes) with the precip max DC and points south.  Imby, I'm hoping for a secondary max near the M/D line with whatever added lift results from being close to the northeast gradient.

[nj2va]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'm not going to lie, the model differences at this point just have me....confused.   Relative to our area, they are just all over the place.  

Just talking about the immediate DC area, but aside from the NAM handling the WAA different than every other model (including the 3k), we are consistently in the 6-10” swath on every model, including the UK the most southern solution.  It seems we’re pretty locked into a 4-8” event, with possible upside depending on mixing and backside as coastal gets going.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, 87storms said:

Yea, it's gravitating towards a general 4-6" swath of snow across the region.  The confluence to the north is just really thorny at this point.  If anything, the models have overall ticked a bit south again since 0z (at least to my eyes) with the precip max DC and points south.  Imby, I'm hoping for a secondary max near the M/D line with whatever added lift results from being close to the northeast gradient.

That’s what to watch for. Though, without much in the way of HP and a strong system moving across the country, don’t discount the last 18-24 hr shift like 1/30/2010 did for the area. 

[nj2va]

3 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Big hit for all or just south?

Not surprising, but very similar to the RGEM.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, nj2va said:

Just talking about the immediate DC area, but aside from the NAM handling the WAA different than every other model (including the 3k), we are consistently in the 6-10” swath on every model, including the UK the most southern solution.  It seems we’re pretty locked into a 4-8” event, with possible upside depending on mixing and backside as coastal gets going.

Yeah the coastal is the thing I really want to trend better.  Unfortunately as of now it looks like the globals (GFS/Euro/CMC) have that area of coastal snow just a little south of Dc Metro, would like to see that bump north. 

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Yeah the coastal is the thing I really want to trend better.  Unfortunately as of now it looks like the globals (GFS/Euro/CMC) have that area of coastal snow just a little south of Dc Metro, would like to see that bump north. 

Yeah, DC was right on the northern edge of the good stuff on the GFS as the storm pulled away.  That is going to be high ratio fluff and could easily drop a few inches.

[JenkinsJinkies]

8 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Not surprising, but very similar to the RGEM.

This would give DCA all the snow it got last year in a single storm.

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Yeah, DC was right on the northern edge of the good stuff on the GFS as the storm pulled away.  That is going to be high ratio fluff and could easily drop a few inches.

If that trends north this system turns from a messy (especially messy south of DC) 5-8" to a 6-12".

[snowdude]

The RAP says “fine, I’ll give you all a win!” 
 

I like to use the RAP during winter storms, especially within 24 hours, so this is a little extended out, but still. 

[nj2va]

UK is going to be a big hit for Central VA, especially south of EZF.  Over a foot for many places.

[arlwx12]

What the DC TV stations were telling the public a couple of hours ago for DC metro:

Channel 4: 4"-7", possibly 8

Channel 5: 4"-6"

Channel 7: 6"

Channel 9: 3"-6"

Let's see if they change much by suppertime.

P.S. At 1116, NWS was still expecting 5"-10" over a broad swathe.

[nj2va]

4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

UK is going to be a big hit for Central VA, especially south of EZF.  Over a foot for many places.

Can’t post the 10:1 map from Pivotal for some reason but approx. 10:1 amounts:

M/D line:  1”

Baltimore: 1-2”

DC: 3-4”

EZF:  6-7”

RIC area: 12”+

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

UK is going to be a big hit for Central VA, especially south of EZF.  Over a foot for many places.

Crazy uncle UKIE is way south.  2-4 for dc.  

[snowdude]

Yeah Ukie is way south. Wow, what an epic battle between the models. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, snowdude said:

Yeah Ukie is way south. Wow, what an epic battle between the models. 

What’s funny is if the euro came out before all the models each suite, we probably would barely mention models like the ICON and UK. People who say the Euro “follows” the uk only say it because it comes out after. I’d hardly say the 6z euro is in the Uk camp. 

[Bob Chill]

No doubt in my mind the UKIE is spot on. No bias here....

[rjvanals]

3 minutes ago, arlwx12 said:

What the DC TV stations were telling the public a couple of hours ago for DC metro:

Channel 4: 4"-7", possibly 8

Channel 5: 4"-6"

Channel 7: 6"

Channel 9: 3"-6"

Let's see if they change much by suppertime.

P.S. At 1116, NWS was still expecting 5"-10" over a broad swathe.

If I was a TV met I’d be putting out 4”-6” across the area due to uncertainty about mixing potential if the NAM is right and being on the northern side of the best snow if the Canadian/UKMet is right especially w the uncertainty about any backside snow Monday afternoon/evening 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

No doubt in my mind the UKIE is spot on. No bias here....

We definitely liked your posts a lot more when you lived in MoCo. Glad you’re enjoying the retired mountain life though. Get some rest for the MECS later in the week. I don’t favor the UK on this one, mainly because it’s a big discrepancy from the GFS and even the Euro and CMC.

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

What’s funny is if the euro came out before all the models each suite, we probably would barely mention models like the ICON and UK. People who say the Euro “follows” the uk only say it because it comes out after. I’d hardly say the 6z euro is in the Uk camp. 

I thought I remember the UK actually scores well at 500 but it’s been a few years since I last looked.  30 minutes until the Euro.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, rjvanals said:

If I was a TV met I’d be putting out 4”-6” across the area due to uncertainty about mixing potential if the NAM is right and being on the northern side of the best snow if the Canadian/UKMet is right especially w the uncertainty about any backside snow Monday afternoon/evening 

4-6 is my personal call as well (fwiw, lol)

[TSSN+]

So I’m in 1” on ukmet to almost a foot on some other models and this is like 36hrs out. Impressive. It’s really the American models vs the world. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

4-6 is my personal call as well (fwiw, lol)

Me too (3-6+)

[DDweatherman]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

So I’m in 1” on ukmet to almost a foot on some other models and this is like 36hrs out. Impressive. It’s really the American models vs the world. 

Stop saying that. The CMC and Euro don’t look like the UK. Even the icon isn’t nearly as far south as the UK lol. The euro is maybe the closest global to the GFS as of 12z gfs/6z euro. 

[rjvanals]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

4-6 is my personal call as well (fwiw, lol)

Yeah we’re likely going to be either sweating being on the northern edge or watching the CC coefficient march NW faster than expected (and hoped for as a snow lover) 

[nj2va]

Now that we’re under 48 hours, the ‘north trend’ certainly hasn’t popped up so far.  

[LeesburgWx]

How is the UKMET still so far south. It’s crazy the spread right now that we are seeing. If DC jacks or gets close to it, the Ukie belongs in the  Cras canp

[North Balti Zen]

Out of curiosity, I presume the ukie is handling the feature over Maine quite differently from the rest of the models? 
 

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

How is the UKMET still so far south. It’s crazy the spread right now that we are seeing. If DC jacks or gets close to it, the Ukie belongs in the  Cras canp

GFS has the surface low in southern WV. The UK has it in northern SC. They are worlds apart. And one is going to bust badly.