stormtracker Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Ji said: I have lost track. Was the GFS good or bad at 18z Shit, same. It's all starting to blend together for me. I'm taking a break after the Euro and skipping 6z 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 It's a hold. Just every so slightly colder. All kinda noise level 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 DC still snow at 12z Monday. Mixing down by EZF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 At 48...waiting so if we get some ULL love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 Get some light ULL love. South of EZF did lose a bit of snow this run. Drier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 WB 0Z GFS at 10pm Monday 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 Look...it's going to snow. Anywhere from 1" to 12" across the area. 1 1 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Good run. Mostly noise level adjustments. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Look...it's going to snow. Anywhere from 1" to 12" across the area. I can see why normal people hate meteorologists 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Gfs will always be the driest model 24 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: No that storm in 2019 was one of the only examples that didn’t trend north and I got less than I expected. it actually did trend north for those in the dc beltway though. lwx forecast had moco, ffx, hoco and dc getting like 6-8" and we made out with 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, LP08 said: Good run. Mostly noise level adjustments. We’re locked in for a warning-level event. Even the most south models have DC/VA Beltway 5”+. Upside of 10-12” if EVERYTHING breaks right including no mixing and ULL/coastal love. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 24 hrs from the event one of these models going to bust badly lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, nj2va said: We’re locked in for a warning-level event. Even the most south models have DC/VA Beltway 5”+. Upside of 10-12” if EVERYTHING breaks right including no mixing and ULL/coastal love. We’ve had pretty dang consistent runs for our area. Almost chips fall mode. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs will always be the driest model 24 hours out Is it normally the driest 24 ours out? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Solid GFS run. 6-10 for many in the sub. 12z tomorrow will be very telling as we’ll be able to use higher res models for specifics on banding and more minute details surround temp profiles. Curious to see the NBM blend for 00z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 GGEM is back south again. But kind of expected that after the RGEM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, clskinsfan said: GGEM is back south again. But kind of expected that after the RGEM run. yeah once RGEM had its southern evolution, fully expected GGEM to follow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1050 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 MDZ003>006-008-011-505>508-051200- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0002.250106T0300Z-250107T0600Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- 1050 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 5 inches or greater and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch possible. A localized band with up to 10 inches of snow is possible if heavy banding sets up this far north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 00z NBM. Totals increased from an E/W swath between DC/balt basically including S NJ. Also increased in S PA north of C MD. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 All that matters, is Cleveland Park gets 14 inches of snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 RAP just finished up. Still snowing here: 5 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, nj2va said: 00z NBM. Totals increased from an E/W swath between DC/balt basically including S NJ. Also increased in S PA north of C MD. We are still pretty far apart when you have RIC at either a foot or 3 inches 24 hours out. The after action report on this one should be telling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, clskinsfan said: RAP just finished up. Still snowing here: If this ends up being south it would be quite the bust for the Americans. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 It is unbelievable that the models are still this far off so close. I fully expected one to cave tonight... I know we still have the Euro to run, but I fully expect it to hold as well. I guess onto to the 6z suite 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Interstate said: It is unbelievable that the models are still this far off so close. I fully expected one to cave tonight... I know we still have the Euro to run, but I fully expect it to hold as well. I guess onto to the 6z suite That'll hold as well. Gotta wait until 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: 00z NBM. Totals increased from an E/W swath between DC/balt basically including S NJ. Also increased in S PA north of C MD. Note that this run does not include any of the 00Z model runs, and no NBM snow product contains any Canadian data. No NBM product at all contains any UKMET data. 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Interstate said: It is unbelievable that the models are still this far off so close. I fully expected one to cave tonight... I know we still have the Euro to run, but I fully expect it to hold as well. I guess onto to the 6z suite i mean in the grand scheme of things they are pretty damn close. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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