high risk Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 When looking at 3k NAM output, it's worth looking at the Ferrier snow accumulation product. This one is connected directly to the model microphysics, so it knows exactly what the model is doing with the falling precipitation. It can actually run a bit low for areas that stay all snow, but it's terrific at sorting out where the model thinks that the sleet will be mixing or other interference to pure snow accumulation. 15 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 rgem goes south with 10" in richmond. what is up with this model lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Fv3 a win https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwfv3&p=snku_acc-imp&rh=2025010500&fh=60&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, high risk said: When looking at 3k NAM output, it's worth looking at the Ferrier snow accumulation product. This one is connected directly to the model microphysics, so it knows exactly what the model is doing with the falling precipitation. It can actually run a bit low for areas that stay all snow, but it's terrific at sorting out where the model thinks that the sleet will be mixing or other interference to pure snow accumulation. I like the Ferrier for marginal events because it does what you mentioned really well. Wish the SLR wasn't capped at 10:1 since that is for certain going to be too low for the northern crew and even much of the area in the initial bout of precip and with any CCB action. My only gripe! Otherwise, it's great for highlighting areas that could see sleet/ZR. As is, that is very nice for many in here. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 RGEM is basically a carbon copy of 18z but increased totals in the RIC area. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, high risk said: When looking at 3k NAM output, it's worth looking at the Ferrier snow accumulation product. This one is connected directly to the model microphysics, so it knows exactly what the model is doing with the falling precipitation. It can actually run a bit low for areas that stay all snow, but it's terrific at sorting out where the model thinks that the sleet will be mixing or other interference to pure snow accumulation. Always love the Ferrier output. Would rather underforecast snow than overforecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I like the Ferrier for marginal events because it does what you mentioned really well. Wish the SLR wasn't capped at 10:1 since that is for certain going to be too low for the northern crew and even much of the area in the initial bout of precip and with any CCB action. My only gripe! Otherwise, it's great for highlighting areas that could see sleet/ZR. As is, that is very nice for many in here. Agreed. In areas that stay all snow, a blend of the Ferrier product and the Kuchera product might work pretty well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Bernie Rayno isn’t buying the NAM/HRR. Thinks heaviest snow is DC south. 2 2 5 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, notvirga! said: Bernie Rayno isn’t buying the NAM/HRR. Thinks heaviest snow is DC south. And he'd change it if the globals came north in a second. 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonTownT Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 34 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: That was an over-performer for sure in the metro DC area...though I don't think it was as good for areas up toward BWI and north, whereas this one looks better relatively speaking. I also recall LWX went 8-12" in the metro DC area which at first seemed really aggressive but ended up spot-on. Bonus question - does anyone remember if this one went north of the consensus 48 hours out? Don't these always go north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 As we get closer to the event, tracking observations becomes more crucial to see how models are performing. This tool compares HRRR sim radar to the observed radar. As you can see, there are some noticible differences already in placement and intensity of precip. http://www.jmmweather.com/radar_comparison.html Please message me with any suggestions as this is a work in progress. 14 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Not that I am sweating the ICON. But its ensemble members are pretty evenly split between north/south SLP positions. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, Jmister said: As we get closer to the event, tracking observations becomes more crucial to see how models are performing. This tool compares HRRR sim radar to the observed radar. As you can see, there are some noticible differences already in placement and intensity of precip. http://www.jmmweather.com/radar_comparison.html Please message me with any suggestions as this is a work in progress. Looks like Hrrr is not north enough if I'm understanding it correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, Jmister said: As we get closer to the event, tracking observations becomes more crucial to see how models are performing. This tool compares HRRR sim radar to the observed radar. As you can see, there are some noticible differences already in placement and intensity of precip. http://www.jmmweather.com/radar_comparison.html Please message me with any suggestions as this is a work in progress. Pretty awesome tool @Jmister I might actually have to bookmark this one for future reference during convective season. Might be helpful in gauging ERO updates during the warm season. Been a minute, but hope you’re doing well!! I remember you went to PSU, correct? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, MillvilleWx said: Pretty awesome tool @Jmister I might actually have to bookmark this one for future reference during convective season. Might be helpful in gauging ERO updates during the warm season. Been a minute, but hope you’re doing well!! I remember you went to PSU, correct? I did bookmark it. The difference feature is awesome. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 11 minutes ago, TowsonTownT said: Bonus question - does anyone remember if this one went north of the consensus 48 hours out? Don't these always go north? No that storm in 2019 was one of the only examples that didn’t trend north and I got less than I expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 No that storm in 2019 was one of the only examples that didn’t trend north and I got less than I expected. I don’t remember a north shift when we actually needed one. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Looks like Hrrr is not north enough if I'm understanding it correctly. Yep, looks like it's missing some lighter precip to the north of the main batch too. Something to keep watching as the storm takes shape. 4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Pretty awesome tool @Jmister I might actually have to bookmark this one for future reference during convective season. Might be helpful in gauging ERO updates during the warm season. Been a minute, but hope you’re doing well!! I remember you went to PSU, correct? Thanks! Yep, I was at PSU from 2007-2017 and in doing so I missed some of Philly's best snowstorms haha. I think they had four storms of 20+ inches while State College's best was 14"...go figure Congrats Mid Atlantic crew, this looks to be a solid storm for you! 12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, Ji said: I don’t remember a north shift when we actually needed one. Didn’t Jan 2022 shift north enough to get DC good when it looked like it might fringe them? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 i don't think it was necessarily a north shift, but the goods spread north in Jan 2016 to allow us in NYC to cash in (into what is still NYC's biggest storm on record). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: No that storm in 2019 was one of the only examples that didn’t trend north and I got less than I expected. Yeah that one hit a frickin' wall and stayed there....I guess that was more of an exception to the rule! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 Aiight. Let's get into it. GFS running. Can't see any drastic jumps, so expectations for me are in check. Didn't mind the last run 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Didn’t Jan 2022 shift north enough to get DC good when it looked like it might fringe them? I believe that Jan 3rd one was fairly steady on the central VA jackpot, but expanded precip north leading up to go time. The system juiced up in general the last few model cycles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Didn’t Jan 2022 shift north enough to get DC good when it looked like it might fringe them?That didn’t help either of us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 More push on the NW side 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 Nothing notable change wise through 0z MON (24hr) 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Ji said: That didn’t help either of us Because we needed too much. They usually trend some, 30 miles maybe and more importantly they usually under do the qpf along the northern fringe so between a small shift north and a 25% increase in qpf suddenly a place expecting 3” gets 6” or 8”. But if we need some 75 mile shift the last 24 hours that’s unlikely. I don’t mind sitting around the .3 qpf area going into the final 24 hours. But being on the outside looking in or on the fringe of any precip at all usually isn’t good. Tonight’s euro is big. It’s been bouncing a bit. If it holds or improves on the 18z run I feel good about higher totals all the way to PA. If it looks like the icon or rgem I might start to worry some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Nothing notable change wise through 0z MON (24hr)I have lost track. Was the GFS good or bad at 18z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 Out to 30. No notable changes at H5 or SFC. 36...northern extent of precip just slightly further south. Nothing panicky worthy for north folks. TEmps are cold and no issue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Ji said: I have lost track. Was the GFS good or bad at 18z It gave you like 8-9” at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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