Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Coastal forming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 First model of 0z suite. Does this have the new raob data and what not? Assume yes but idk what hrrr gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Back building happening as the coastal gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Obvisouly, as PSU just posted, the divergence is 18 hours from now - but how good is the HRRR 35+ hours out? It is a beat down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Hot damn and still going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Wouldn’t more zr mean system more north though? Or just the thermals are different For KC at least it shows the warm layer aloft is stronger than suggested even 6-12 hours ago. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Deck Pic said: This is sim radar at hour 48 when the HRRR truncates. Hard to say how much more. Could easily be another 1-2" Sick 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Don’t read a ton into it, but KC has had tons of FZRA. Seems like 12z euro had them straddling snow/fzra line now. 3k NAM had sleet. GFS had snow/sleet. I think in this particular case -- it's less to do with the thermal profile and more to do with the fact that it's unsaturated below -10C in the cloud layer. Lack of ice crystals preventing any sort of nucleation. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Maybe the RAP was on to something. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, csnavywx said: I think in this particular case -- it's less to do with the thermal profile and more to do with the fact that it's unsaturated below -10C in the cloud layer. Lack of ice crystals preventing any sort of nucleation. Ah interesting. Nice catch. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: Hot damn and still going Is that hrrr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 It is a beautiful run. No other way to put it. And poor Short Pump. Lucy'd again. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, winter_warlock said: Is that hrrr? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: For KC at least it shows the warm layer aloft is stronger than suggested even 6-12 hours ago. Were they expecting to start with freezing rain and then later change over to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, nj2va said: Sick I was going to post that map since it has double digits over house but it also shows how different it is from the 18Z NAM. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: Sick 1-3 on top of our 10-13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: This is sim radar at hour 48 when the HRRR truncates. Hard to say how much more. Could easily be another 1-2" future radars are still very much inaccurate also the hrrr can be very hit or miss too. If this does play out those joy for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 10 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: First model of 0z suite. Does this have the new raob data and what not? Assume yes but idk what hrrr gets. 00Z HRRR does *NOT* have the 00Z raob data. Edit: to be clear, this cycle can never have them, as its start time is too early 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Ah interesting. Nice catch. It looks like in the last radar frame, the snow line pushed south to the KC airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I thought HRRR after a certain point was pretty useless? Am I wrong here? Seen so many posts about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 With what was left to come through it was a 10-15 run for everyone in this subforum. For once I hope it is right. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Curious to see what the varsity models have to say with new data in. That HRRR run was crazy but we should take that with a grain of salt unless other models begin to back it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Ya it’s the hrrr but still I mean to be that far off even at hour 35 would be insane. One of these models going to need a time out after this one lol. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I thought HRRR after a certain point was pretty useless? Am I wrong here? Seen so many posts about it. It’s only useful when it drops a hecs 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6 minutes ago, nj2va said: Sick Wow. I know, the HRRR waaaay out at its range but that is insane (i.e., amazing). How much of that is the coastal enhancement? Unless that's occurring at the time this ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Wow. I know, the HRRR waaaay out at its range but that is insane (i.e., amazing). How much of that is the coastal enhancement? Unless that's occurring at the time this ends.Almost all of that is from the initial low 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Were they expecting to start with freezing rain and then later change over to snow? Globals seemed to have them in all snow or snow-mix-snow as Storm developed. But close to the line. Nam and hrrr had most mixing. But @csnavywx made a good point about the subsaturated column. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Nam trended south through 21hrs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 NAM seems slightly south with the primary, but its extremely early in its run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, Amped said: Nam trended south through 21hrs Yep more confluence. Look at the 534 line. Bounced back north at 24 though. So who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts