winter_warlock Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 hours ago, yoda said: And LWX DOES mention the ICON btw I saw that. . First time I ever saw them mention it lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 SREF still is a hammer 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Last four runs of the NBM I’m all about this! Blend of a bunch of models right? Sorry to ask as I know it was discussed somewhere about 173,472 pages ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6 minutes ago, nj2va said: Last four runs of the NBM. 6” line continuing to tick south towards EZF. More a slight broadening of the shield than anything really. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: I did like the uniformity of the 3k and NBM’s precip for sure. Less complex I think the dual band structure is probably going to happen. NBM sorta smoothes that out. 3k NAM does a similar swath through somewhat overlapping zones of the banding at different stages of the storm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 What should we be looking for out west in real time? For any indications as to whether the gfs or euro is closer to actual outcome?. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 21z even more north and still ongoing 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 9 minutes ago, nj2va said: Last four runs of the NBM. 6” line continuing to tick south towards EZF. Don’t see much of a change there at all. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I really like the Eastern Shore for this one. They are gonna get the best of both parts imo. But not enough difference for me to head down there. Plus the snow will stick around longer out here in the Mountains. But Cambridge or Salisbury look to get it good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Don’t see much of a change there at all. Purples expanded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Euro vs GFS 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 With 13:1-14:1 this is well over a foot for northern counties on the SREF 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 8 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: 21z even more north and still ongoing I honestly don't recall when the Nam twins, HRRR, and SREFs have had as many identical runs in a row to themselves and each other as they have with this snowstorm. 7 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, mitchnick said: I honestly don't recall when the Nam twins, HRRR, and SREFs have had as many identical runs in a row to themselves and each other as they have with this snowstorm. Going to be some caving tonight we will see what model will win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Dewpoints in the single digits all the way down into the southern Carolinas. As @mitchnicksaid, it's great to have a solid antecedent airmass this time. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Dewpoints in the single digits all the way down into the southern Carolinas. As @mitchnicksaid, it's great to have a solid antecedent airmass this time. Ya hopefully not too much of a good thing though haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Things I am sure of after the last 24 hours: - The 12kNAM is indeed run on a 2001 Nokia flip phone - This subforum is completely out of snowstorm shape. Worrying about the NAM 36+ hrs from start time lol. The 2016 version of us would be howling with laughter - The Euro is still king/queen/grandmaster 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 25 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Don’t see much of a change there at all. A slight drop in totals in S NJ/S PA and the 6” contour expanding southward in VA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: A slight drop in totals in S NJ/S PA and the 6” contour expanding southward in VA. Ya maybe dropped a little out toward the coast but back towards western and central Md the last run bumped up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Mount Holly has 1-3, 3-7, 1-3 for the periods tomorrow night, Monday, Monday night for my yard. That's 5-13. Just about covers the disparity in the guidance lol. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 37 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: With 13:1-14:1 this is well over a foot for northern counties on the SREF Northern tier that’s going to be more than 10:1 that’s for sure 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I honestly don't recall when the Nam twins, HRRR, and SREFs have had as many identical runs in a row to themselves and each other as they have with this snowstorm. It may be consistently wrong, but goddamn has it been consistent 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 First call: I’m in favor of the northern group of models and not really buying into the foot plus snows around EZF, nor am I buying the weird “dry slot” in the WAA portion of the storm. Even though confluence is very strong and we have a cold antecedent airmass, this is a very dynamic system with a powerful 70kt low level jet. We’ll see dual banding with 850 and 700 fgen, with the former along i-66 (give or take) and the latter between i-70 and the M/D line. Mix line likely to reach DC, and sleet/fzdz may even occur as far north as i-70 WHEN rates lighten up (heavier rates will be snow). Greatest uncertainty is whether a coastal gets going in time for us to get an extra few inches. In my first call, I say it will. My snowfall forecast (east of blue ridge): South of CHO - EZF - La Plata line: 1-3” heavy mix Delmarva South of Salisbury: 3-5” Delmarva North of Salisbury: 5-10”++ EZF north to I-66: 3-6” mix Between I-66 and I-70: 5-10” with some sleet/fzdz Between I-70 and M/D line: 6-12” all snow I reserve my right to make a final call when I see the need to make changes. P.S. Beltway DC metro? 4-7” with some mix 31 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: First call: I’m in favor of the northern group of models and not really buying into the foot plus snows around EZF, nor am I buying the weird “dry slot” in the WAA portion of the storm. Even though confluence is very strong and we have a cold antecedent airmass, this is a very dynamic system with a powerful 70kt low level jet. We’ll see dual banding with 850 and 700 fgen, with the former along i-66 (give or take) and the latter between i-70 and the M/D line. Mix line likely to reach DC, and sleet/fzdz may even occur as far north as i-70 WHEN rates lighten up (heavier rates will be snow). Greatest uncertainty is whether a coastal gets going in time for us to get an extra few inches. In my first call, I say it will. My snowfall forecast (east of blue ridge): South of CHO - EZF - La Plata line: 1-3” heavy mix Delmarva South of Salisbury: 3-5” Delmarva North of Salisbury: 5-10”++ EZF north to I-66: 3-6” mix Between I-66 and I-70: 5-10” with some sleet/fzdz Between I-70 and M/D line: 6-12” all snow I really like your thinking... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6 minutes ago, Terpeast said: First call: I’m in favor of the northern group of models and not really buying into the foot plus snows around EZF, nor am I buying the weird “dry slot” in the WAA portion of the storm. Even though confluence is very strong and we have a cold antecedent airmass, this is a very dynamic system with a powerful 70kt low level jet. We’ll see dual banding with 850 and 700 fgen, with the former along i-66 (give or take) and the latter between i-70 and the M/D line. Mix line likely to reach DC, and sleet/fzdz may even occur as far north as i-70 WHEN rates lighten up (heavier rates will be snow). Greatest uncertainty is whether a coastal gets going in time for us to get an extra few inches. In my first call, I say it will. My snowfall forecast (east of blue ridge): South of CHO - EZF - La Plata line: 1-3” heavy mix Delmarva South of Salisbury: 3-5” Delmarva North of Salisbury: 5-10”++ EZF north to I-66: 3-6” mix Between I-66 and I-70: 5-10” with some sleet/fzdz Between I-70 and M/D line: 6-12” all snow I reserve my right to make a final call when I see the need to make changes. I sure hope you are right. I’m dying for a real storm. I haven’t seen a storm more than 6” in years. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 9 minutes ago, Terpeast said: First call: I’m in favor of the northern group of models and not really buying into the foot plus snows around EZF, nor am I buying the weird “dry slot” in the WAA portion of the storm. Even though confluence is very strong and we have a cold antecedent airmass, this is a very dynamic system with a powerful 70kt low level jet. We’ll see dual banding with 850 and 700 fgen, with the former along i-66 (give or take) and the latter between i-70 and the M/D line. Mix line likely to reach DC, and sleet/fzdz may even occur as far north as i-70 WHEN rates lighten up (heavier rates will be snow). Greatest uncertainty is whether a coastal gets going in time for us to get an extra few inches. In my first call, I say it will. My snowfall forecast (east of blue ridge): South of CHO - EZF - La Plata line: 1-3” heavy mix Delmarva South of Salisbury: 3-5” Delmarva North of Salisbury: 5-10”++ EZF north to I-66: 3-6” mix Between I-66 and I-70: 5-10” with some sleet/fzdz Between I-70 and M/D line: 6-12” all snow I reserve my right to make a final call when I see the need to make changes. P.S. Beltway DC metro? 4-7” with some mix I think the Beltway sees 6-10" but you're the meteorologist here so I'm probably in denial. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Vort is a tick south and faster through 16 on the HRRR this run. Lets see where it goes from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Looks like CWG updated for 5-8 for their middle swath dc including. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Vort is a tick south and faster through 16 on the HRRR this run. Lets see where it goes from here. By 18 hours it’s already diverged significantly from the “south” camp like the uk and rgem. Someone’s gonna cave very soon because the error is very early on. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 HRRR more north with the shield so far vs 18z. Snow approaching the lakes now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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