January 5-6 Thing II: STORM MODE

[MillvilleWx]

24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

From a Mt Holly met

 

Alex is a friend of mine and fantastic met. Agreed. I’ve been saying MD32 is probably the furthest north extent of the sleet line, but collapses back as the coastal takes over and the 850-700mb level shifts as the trough swings eastward. Key is the positioning of the 7H and 85F FGEN placement and I feel there will be split maxima with them. Inside the beltway should be good for 5-8” for DC regardless of sleet. I think that’s a fair bar for the area. 

[TSSN+]

Almost back northern crew! 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

i thought you said it moved up 40 miles

Not sure you know what miles are.   YOu need me to convert to KM?

[Ravens94]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Almost back northern crew! 

Appears to be the furthest north yet in several runs 

[CAPE]

Euro wobbles a bit north and a bit south from run to run, but not really budging.

[bncho]

Great run from the Euro. I think everyone will be happy with that.

[mitchnick]

At 36hrs, you can see comparing 6z and 12z to this run how height lines jumped north from the 12z run.

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

At 36hrs, you can see comparing 6z and 12z to this run how height lines jumped north from the 12z run.

Surface low still bouncing around a little bit. But definitely ticked north. Good run. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

At 36hrs, you can see comparing 6z and 12z to this run how height lines jumped north from the 12z run.

This is a good trend for us.  North enough to bring the goods but not north enough for dry slot/mid level warming. 

[diatae]

Just now, CAPE said:

Euro wobbles a bit north and a bit south from run to run, but not really budging.

Looks more like the precip shield is expanding and contracting from run to run. Not so much north-south "ticks". But I'm just using my eyeballs. No expertise here.

[PCT_ATC]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Almost back northern crew! 

looking good.. glad that 12.6 in bold is right smack over my house

[MillvilleWx]

This is for the lowlands people in AA county and points east….

 

I kind of like where we are right now for this one. If you are in Annapolis/Edgewater area, we are probably one of the better spots no matter what model you look at. 5-10” seems very likely. We will likely mix with sleet if you are along and south of Rt50, but I don’t see it lasting too long before we flip back. 

[AACOUNTYMD]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

This is for the lowlands people in AA county and points east….

 

I kind of like where we are right now for this one. If you are in Annapolis/Edgewater area, we are probably one of the better spots no matter what model you look at. 5-10” seems very likely. We will likely mix with sleet if you are along and south of Rt50, but I don’t see it lasting too long before we flip back. 

ok, friend!  I sure hope so. . . we have been in the bullseye off and on. . . so I have my fingers crossed.  5=10 inches is great. . .hoping for the 10 up here 

[nj2va]

16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

If anyone has a gif of euro total precip from last 3-4 runs, I’d appreciate it!

[nj2va]

12 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

EDIT = it's fine.  I'm tired. I was looking at 12z.  

that was a sick run (again) for us.  Cold smoke.

[wawarriors4]

Just now, nj2va said:

that was a sick run (again) for us.  Cold smoke.

It was a really nice Euro run……

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

that was a sick run (again) for us.  Cold smoke.

Thanks for the gif. Looks more windshield wiper to me than any real trend. Got 24-30 hours for any true movement.

[Warm Nose]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Thanks for the gif. Looks more windshield wiper to me than any real trend. Got 24-30 hours for any true movement.

Yeah don't see any appreciable change in QPF or a tightening/broadening of the gradient. 

[jayyy]

Thanks for the gif. Looks more windshield wiper to me than any real trend. Got 24-30 hours for any true movement.

Yep. Still think you all in Columbia are very much in the game for 6-10” totals. Models tend to underdo the northern band and with the storm being further south this go around, I think that’s more likely your area than the M/D line.

[TSG]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Thanks for the gif. Looks more windshield wiper to me than any real trend. Got 24-30 hours for any true movement.

The only real difference I've seen the last few Euro runs is the angle of the heavy precip bands, and even then not a whole lot. From WSW->ENE to closer to due East.

[psuhoffman]

For those near the PA MD line that stuff south of DC associated with the h85 forcing isn’t ours. You can see the euro hinting at the duel banding also.

It has the h7 associated band right over us.  Exactly where I expect it given the synoptic setup. It’s just weak sauce as of now.  But that almost always ends up producing and often ends up the better band for accumulations.  Get that band over us and I’ll take my chances. 
 

We don’t really need the euro to shift north. We just need it to increase the qpf associated with that band some. Not a ton. Right now we’re around .3 qpf. Get that to like .45 and with the high ratios we get up here and under that type of banding and that’s 5-8”. A very slight adjustment and it’s what I’ve expected given the setup. 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

For those near the PA MD line that stuff south of DC associated with the h85 forcing isn’t ours. You can see the euro hinting at the duel banding also.

It has the h7 associated band right over us.  Exactly where I expect it given the synoptic setup. It’s just weak sauce as of now.  But that almost always ends up producing and often ends up the better band for accumulations.  Get that band over is and I’ll take my chances. 
 

We don’t really need the euro to shift north. We just need it to increase the qpf associated with that band some. Not a ton. Right now we’re around .3 qpf. Get that to like .45 and with the high ratios we get up here and under that type of banding and that’s 5-8”. A very slight adjustment and it’s what I’ve expected given the setup. 

Good post. Almost .4” QPF as of 18z run it looks like. Can definitely turn that to 6-8” 

[psuhoffman]

32 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Euro wobbles a bit north and a bit south from run to run, but not really budging.

The euro and gfs have been slowly converging and now aren’t really that far apart. My guess is they split what little difference there is in the next run or two. Then I don’t expect any appreciable change in where both locate the two main bands here but I do expect the typical adjustment where the h7 associated northern band over performs due to a combo of models typically under estimating qpf a bit and the high ratios with that band causing that small qpf error to be exacerbated wrt snow accumulations. 
 

My guess is the final 24 hours will be about pinning down those details.  Exactly how much of any sleet mixes in the southern max, how much qpf beefs up in the northern one, and are there any unfortunate bust zones in between the two bands.   

 

[mitchnick]

Eps

[DDweatherman]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Eps

hoping 0z does another 30 miles northward or hones on the QPF in the NW band across our zone. 

[RickinBaltimore]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Eps

Looks like 18z brought the precip back to about where is was on 6z

[WxUSAF]

13 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Yep. Still think you all in Columbia are very much in the game for 6-10” totals. Models tend to underdo the northern band and with the storm being further south this go around, I think that’s more likely your area than the M/D line.

I think it’s possible but like all of us I can see failure modes lol. Getting between the 2 bands seems like maybe the most realistic for now. Too far north for the big WAA, too far south for big ratios. Still I think 5”/warning level is a probable floor. I personally am still rooting for a 3k NAM/NBM swath.

[nj2va]

Last four runs of the NBM.  6” line continuing to tick south towards EZF.  

[WxUSAF]

^if we think there are forecast challenges for our area, Mt Holly and Philly Mets got to be pulling their hair out. @Heisy?? 1-2” on the euro and nbm with warning level.

[jayyy]

I think it’s possible but like all of us I can see failure modes lol. Getting between the 2 bands seems like maybe the most realistic for now. Too far north for the big WAA, too far south for big ratios. Still I think 5”/warning level is a probable floor. I personally am still rooting for a 3k NAM/NBM swath.

I did like the uniformity of the 3k and NBM’s precip for sure. Less complex