January 5-6 Thing II: STORM MODE

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, IronTy said:

This is pretty.much all of it.  

6” plus area wide, yes please 

[jayyy]

Hopefully the NAM has been on notice and falls in line with the GFS.  

Pretty sure the NAM is already in line with the GFS for the most part.

[WesternFringe]

4 minutes ago, IronTy said:

This is pretty.much all of it.  

Starting to cave to the Euro?

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, WesternFringe said:

Starting to cave to the Euro?

Not even close to the euro. Euro has 0” to the north where gfs has 6”+ lol 

[Wetbulbs88]

1 minute ago, WesternFringe said:

Starting to cave to the Euro?

It's not much different than the last run. Still not all that similar to the Euro. 

[WesternFringe]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Not even close to the euro. Euro has 0” to the north where gfs has 6”+ lol 

There is movt towards increased totals down south and southwest like the Euro.  
It matters where you are looking for sure.

[TSSN+]

If I was at lwx trying to decide what to do for snow maps and warnings these models would be having me smashing the keyboard over the computer at this point. 

[Wetbulbs88]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Not even close to the euro. Euro has 0” to the north where gfs has 6”+ lol 

Exactly. In an earlier post I mentioned no models showing 4" above M/D. I stand corrected because the GFS is basically the only one. 

[SnowenOutThere]

This is pretty much the state of the storm right now. (@stormtracker if this needs to be moved to banter)

[IronTy]

4 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Pretty sure the NAM is already in line with the GFS for the most part.

Well, except for the only part that matters for weenies, the snow map!  The difference between 2" and 12"…...

[WxUSAF]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Perhaps a little betwixt the 850 and and 700mb lift?

This is exactly it based on TT plots

[Wxtrix]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

LWX going warnings now

ETA - watches still for NE parts of the CWA

and NW

[TSSN+]

Just now, Wetbulbs88 said:

Exactly. In an earlier post I mentioned no models showing 4" above M/D. I stand corrected because the GFS is basically the only one. 

No the hrrr, Nam and icon also do. 

[WesternFringe]

4 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

It's not much different than the last run. Still not all that similar to the Euro. 

Again, it matters where you are looking.  The western part of the stripe is heading south towards the Euro solution.
For example, LWX has increased snow totals in their warning here compared to their watch.  By like 3-5 inches lol

[Wetbulbs88]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

If I was at lwx trying to decide what to do for snow maps and warnings these models would be having me smashing the keyboard over the computer at this point. 

I think the north-south banding approach is a pretty good bet so I like their call. I don't like this setup for us in DC. We tend to get caught in the middle because there's elevation to the north and the core moisture brunt to the south. 

But hopefully I'm just bracing myself against the potential for failure. Also hard to see us fall shy of warning-level criteria. 

[Wetbulbs88]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

No the hrrr, Nam and icon also do. 

True. And I don't discount the NAM completely like some others. HRRR on the fringe somewhat but getting into range. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

True. And I don't discount the NAM completely like some others. HRRR on the fringe somewhat but getting into range. 

Others are more experienced.

[konksw]

3 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

I think the north-south banding approach is a pretty good bet so I like their call. I don't like this setup for us in DC. We tend to get caught in the middle because there's elevation to the north and the core moisture brunt to the south. 

But hopefully I'm just bracing myself against the potential for failure. Also hard to see us fall shy of warning-level criteria. 

Probably the later 

[MN Transplant]

With this GFS run, the NAM is now on an island bringing mixing into DC.

[StormyClearweather]

Okay, snow map pron time. 

[Warm Nose]

https://twitter.com/Fly_KansasCity/status/1875645691625890056

[WxUSAF]

Just now, MN Transplant said:

With this GFS run, the NAM is now on an island bringing mixing into DC.

With the disagreement still among the globals even, might have to wait until even 12z tomorrow to get a good sense of warm layers and banding.

[WEATHER53]

49 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

There's some backside love at 57hr.  Nothing too heavy

These coastals  mostly don’t help us.  It’s going to be really good what happens before, No disappointments!!! Things have been odd very recently so I’m hoping the coastal does kick in for us. 

At the least it will get quite windy  with blowing and maybe drifts so that will be fun also!

 

[SnowenOutThere]

RAP (fwiw) seems wetter and has a wide swath of foot 12+

[caviman2201]

Not sure if its been mentioned but QPF slug has moved north on both the 18z Ukie and ICON... significantly so on the Ukie... sign of things to come on the 18z Euro?

Icon:

Ukie:

[psuhoffman]

About all these “how are the models so far apart” posts. Just a reminder we do this EVERY time we have a wave that isn’t some wound up sub 990 hecs monster with a 250 mile wide jack zone. 
 

NWP has become absolutely amazing (imo) at picking up on the general synoptic ideas on a 10,000 foot view at ranges unfathomable 20 years ago.  I was on a plane a week ago looking at this same threat and we already had the general idea of a wave into the TN or Ohio Valley with gulf moisture overrunning the cold.  Look at this from 180 hours!

By 150 hours even the hiccup runs were gone and all 3 major ensemble systems were showing the same general idea.  We didn’t even discuss or look at anything past 100 hours when I used to attend some of the guidance discussions at Penn State 25 years ago!  Most of the models didn’t even go past 120 or 144 and we didn’t take anything seriously until it was within NGM and ETA range which was 48.  Now we’re having serious discussions about stuff 7 days away!  
 

But NWP cannot pin down the exact location of meso banding or the location of the edges of these bands to the mile. Guidance even at 24-36 hours will shift these things around 40-50 miles run to run and every storm we say the same things “omg how are they doing this”   It’s just the limitations of our current science and it doesn’t matter if it’s a large expansive qpf field and you're in the center but in events with a smaller jack zone or for those near the edges this is still all standard procedure.

 

[TSSN+]

11 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

RAP (fwiw) seems wetter and has a wide swath of foot 12+

Some of these models are going to bust big time. That shows like 12” plus out west over Illinois where some models have 0” 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Some of these models are going to bust big time. That shows like 12” plus out west over Illinois where some models have 0” 

We all should start looking west and taking notes to see which of these models are closer to reality

[MillvilleWx]

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

With the disagreement still among the globals even, might have to wait until even 12z tomorrow to get a good sense of warm layers and banding.

I’m hoping it’s earlier as I run the QPF desk tonight again. Pretty delicate situation. I will say one of the best areas right now seems to lie between I-70 and Rt50. Almost any solution throws out WSW criteria snowfall, so I’d feel great if you are between that zone. 

[Warm Nose]

It's not just LWX with this storm ... EAX (KC) also working with uncertainty:

The overall forecast
remains on track, with the only change being a slight increase
in snow totals for a corridor roughly 30 miles north and south
of US Highway 36 and a slight decrease in snow totals for our
southern counties. This has only increased/tightened the already
large snowfall gradient that has set up over the Interstate 70
corridor and the KC metro, as snowfall could range from a foot
near KCI to only 4" or so across Cass County.