MN Transplant Posted Saturday at 08:39 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:39 PM 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: So Fredericksburg gets .23” of liquid on the 3k and 1.3” on the Euro. Cool cool lol They close the gap a touch in the late part of the storm, but yeah, that is a wild difference this close. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Saturday at 08:39 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:39 PM I’ll give the storm another “reminder” as I fly through in a few minutes. Whichever camp is going to cave (or more likely a compromise) it has to happen soon because the differences that lead to the south v north results occur in only about 24 hours and the rest is just the dominoes falling after that. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Saturday at 08:40 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:40 PM Zone Forecast Product National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 333 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 DCZ001-050000- District of Columbia- Including the city of Washington 333 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY... .REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 30s. West winds around 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. .TONIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 20s. West winds 10 to 15 mph. .SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. .SUNDAY NIGHT...A chance of snow in the evening, then snow after midnight. Snow may be heavy at times after midnight. Lows in the mid 20s. Northwest winds around 5 mph, becoming north after midnight. Chance of snow near 100 percent. .MONDAY...Snow. Highs in the upper 20s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent. .MONDAY NIGHT...Snow likely. Lows around 20. Chance of snow 70 percent. .TUESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 30s. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Saturday at 08:41 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:41 PM Hey guys quick question.. just curious when is the NAM wheelhouse time? Cause we're only About 36 hours from the storm starting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Saturday at 08:42 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:42 PM 2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Would a precip field expand that far west if the low is that far east? I think maybe its because of the shape of the precip field heading into the event? You have snow from Central Kansas to Central VA on this map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted Saturday at 08:42 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:42 PM Once the low gets East of our longitude then it’s snow. As it approaches from our west we have about a 3 hour period of a sleet mix threat. The low moving due east right along the VA/NC border is perfect for all snow . Don’t want it up to Richmond and likely won’t be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Saturday at 08:43 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:43 PM Weird how the warnings pop up first in the ZFP and AFMs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Saturday at 08:43 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:43 PM 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: Hey guys quick question.. just curious when is the NAM wheelhouse time? Cause we're only About 36 hours from the storm starting. 24-36 hours or less 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Saturday at 08:45 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:45 PM 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Zone Forecast Product National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 333 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 DCZ001-050000- District of Columbia- Including the city of Washington 333 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY... .REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 30s. West winds around 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. .TONIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 20s. West winds 10 to 15 mph. .SUNDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 30s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. .SUNDAY NIGHT...A chance of snow in the evening, then snow after midnight. Snow may be heavy at times after midnight. Lows in the mid 20s. Northwest winds around 5 mph, becoming north after midnight. Chance of snow near 100 percent. .MONDAY...Snow. Highs in the upper 20s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent. .MONDAY NIGHT...Snow likely. Lows around 20. Chance of snow 70 percent. .TUESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 30s. Reading between the lines tells me we will have double digit snow in the DMV. A lot was said in that write up without saying it 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted Saturday at 08:47 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:47 PM 9 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Hey guys quick question.. just curious when is the NAM wheelhouse time? Cause we're only About 36 hours from the storm starting. 7 minutes ago, Terpeast said: 24-36 hours or less I would lean even more towards 12-24 hrs. I'm not a met though just a dude with a solid memory of past events. The NAM has scored some coups over the years (specifically about precip type for specific locations), but the massive differences in precip fields between it and the globals tells me it's likely doing it's "overamp at range" thing. If it is, we'll see it come south on the overnight runs. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted Saturday at 08:48 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:48 PM There is still wayyyy too much banter in the storm thread... We do not need all the thank you and okays in the replies posts. 5 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted Saturday at 08:49 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:49 PM NWS Blend 9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Saturday at 08:50 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:50 PM 1 minute ago, TSG said: I would lean even more towards 12-24 hrs. I'm not a met though just a dude with a solid memory of past events. The NAM has scored some coups over the years (specifically about precip type for specific locations), but the massive differences in precip fields between it and the globals tells me it's likely doing it's "overamp at range" thing. If it is, we'll see it slide come south on the overnight runs. You could very well be right! I almost did not add the 36 hrs to 24-36 hrs. Really best inside of 24 hours 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Saturday at 08:50 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:50 PM 2 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: NWS Blend Normally a blend of all models is. Usually what we usually get anyhow .. in my opinion 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Saturday at 08:51 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:51 PM This system is definitely dynamic. Blizzard warnings added out in Kansas. 5 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Saturday at 08:55 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:55 PM Winter Storm Watches extended just to our north by CTP for the Mason-Dixon counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Saturday at 08:56 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:56 PM Wrt NAM, I often toss is, it’s way to jumpy and prone to wild tangents. But it does sometimes pick up on a mid level warm push that can lead to a north shift on this type of setup and it’s not often this locked in and when it is sometimes it’s onto something. But not always. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted Saturday at 08:56 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:56 PM 7 minutes ago, Interstate said: There is still wayyyy too much banter in the storm thread... We do not need all the thank you and okays in the replies posts. It is being managed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Saturday at 08:56 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:56 PM 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Saturday at 08:57 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:57 PM URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 354 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 MDZ502-WVZ051>053-050500- /O.EXT.KLWX.WS.A.0002.250106T0300Z-250107T0600Z/ Central and Eastern Allegany-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson- 354 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 5 inches or greater and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch possible. A localized band with up to 10 inches of snow is possible if heavy banding sets up this far north. * WHERE...In Maryland, Central and Eastern Allegany County. In West Virginia, Berkeley, Jefferson, and Morgan Counties. * WHEN...From Sunday evening through late Monday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted Saturday at 08:58 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:58 PM 19 minutes ago, yoda said: LWX going warnings now ETA - watches still for NE parts of the CWA Blacksburg hiked up warnings about 60 minutes ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted Saturday at 08:58 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:58 PM URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 354 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 DCZ001-MDZ013-014-503-504-VAZ053-054-501-505-506-526-527-050500- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0002.250106T0000Z-250107T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0002.250106T0300Z-250107T0600Z/ District of Columbia-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northwest Prince William-Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 354 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 5 and 9 inches, with amounts of 10 to 12 inches possible in isolated spots if heavy banding sets up in this area. Ice accumulations of a trace possible near Interstate 66. * WHERE...Portions of DC, central Maryland, and northern Virginia. * WHEN...From 10 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday. Highest snowfall rates occur overnight Sunday into early Monday morning. Snow may mix with sleet and perhaps some freezing rain Monday morning into the afternoon, especially right along the Interstate 66 corridor. A lull in precipitation will occur sometime during the afternoon. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Saturday at 08:58 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:58 PM ICON maybe 30 miles north with the vort at 36. Think it will be a better run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Saturday at 08:58 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:58 PM URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 354 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 MDZ003>006-008-011-505>508-050500- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0002.250106T0300Z-250107T0600Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- 354 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 5 inches or greater and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch possible. A localized band with up to 10 inches of snow is possible if heavy banding sets up this far north. * WHERE...Portions of central, north central, northeast, and northern Maryland. * WHEN...From Sunday evening through late Monday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Saturday at 08:59 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:59 PM URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 354 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 MDZ016>018-VAZ039-040-051-055-057-502-050500- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0002.250106T0000Z-250107T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0002.250105T2300Z-250107T0600Z/ Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Madison-Rappahannock-Culpeper-Stafford- King George-Southern Fauquier- 354 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 5 and 8 inches, with amounts of 10 to 12 inches possible in isolated spots if heavy banding sets up in this area. Ice accumulations around one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of southern Maryland and central, northern, and northwest Virginia. * WHEN...From 6 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday. Highest snowfall rates occur overnight Sunday into early Monday morning. Snow will mix with sleet and freezing rain Monday morning into the afternoon. A lull in precipitation will occur sometime during the afternoon. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A second round of heavy snow is possible Monday evening before precipitation ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Saturday at 08:59 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:59 PM Just now, clskinsfan said: ICON maybe 30 miles north with the vort at 36. Think it will be a better run. I expect that 18z and 0z runs tonight will start converging onto a final solution (more or less). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Saturday at 09:00 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:00 PM RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 354 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 VAZ027>031-WVZ050-055-502-504-050500- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0002.250106T0000Z-250107T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0002.250106T0300Z-250107T0600Z/ Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Hampshire-Hardy- Eastern Grant-Eastern Mineral- 354 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Total snow and sleet accumulations between 5 and 9 inches, with amounts of 10 to 12 inches possible in isolated spots if heavy banding sets up in this area. Ice accumulations of a trace possible near Interstate 66. * WHERE...Portions of northwest Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From 10 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday. Highest snowfall rates occur overnight Sunday into early Monday morning. Snow may mix with sleet and perhaps some freezing rain Monday morning into the afternoon, especially right along the Interstate 66 corridor. A lull in precipitation will occur sometime during the afternoon. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A second round of heavy snow is possible Monday evening before precipitation ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Saturday at 09:00 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:00 PM URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 354 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 VAZ036>038-050-056-507-508-050500- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0002.250105T2100Z-250107T0300Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0002.250105T2300Z-250107T0600Z/ Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Orange-Spotsylvania-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- 354 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 5 and 9 inches, with amounts of 10 to 12 inches possible in isolated spots if heavy banding sets up in this area. Ice accumulations around a tenth to a quarter of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of central and northwest Virginia. * WHEN...From 6 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday. Highest snowfall rates occur overnight Sunday into early Monday morning. Snow will mix with sleet and freezing rain Monday morning into the afternoon, especially along and south of Interstate 66. A lull in precipitation will occur sometime during the afternoon. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A second round of heavy snow is possible Monday evening before precipitation ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jviper Posted Saturday at 09:00 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:00 PM Just now, yoda said: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 354 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 MDZ016>018-VAZ039-040-051-055-057-502-050500- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0002.250106T0000Z-250107T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0002.250105T2300Z-250107T0600Z/ Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-Madison-Rappahannock-Culpeper-Stafford- King George-Southern Fauquier- 354 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 5 and 8 inches, with amounts of 10 to 12 inches possible in isolated spots if heavy banding sets up in this area. Ice accumulations around one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of southern Maryland and central, northern, and northwest Virginia. * WHEN...From 6 PM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday. Highest snowfall rates occur overnight Sunday into early Monday morning. Snow will mix with sleet and freezing rain Monday morning into the afternoon. A lull in precipitation will occur sometime during the afternoon. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A second round of heavy snow is possible Monday evening before precipitation ends. Thanks for posting these. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Saturday at 09:02 PM Share Posted Saturday at 09:02 PM Icon(I know it’s the Icon), it’s coming in hot, meaning heavy snow, then dry slot in VA, wrap around coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts