Solution Man Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 3K NAM through 3pm Mob. A bit of wraparound to come 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 3K NAM through 3pm Mob. That’s the hrrr bud 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 3K NAM through 3pm Mon. The snow map is the hrrr. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Phasing also 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 9 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: 18z NAM is solid, and coastal gets going faster with wraparound snows into Tuesday AM. Looks like two rounds…overnight Sunday into midday Monday with some sleet mixing into I-66/50 then secondary batch enhanced by the trough and coastal Monday PM into Tuesday AM. Double digit snows north of the mixing. If the ccb gets cranking with the ull passage, then there is a big chance for 10+ inch totals somewhere in our forum. A few years ago I remember an event where Rockville got in toto backside banding and it snowed and extra 6 inches in a small concentrated area. I feel like that could happen again with this storm. The gfs has hinted towards it a couple of times in the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 That's a decent slug of sleet on the 3k NAM from roughly MD 200 / MD 32 south. IDGAF I'll take the glacier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 NAM 3k also bringing wrap around snow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Off to cook burgers for ravens game 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: That’s the hrrr bud I fixed it...thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: NAM 3k also bringing wrap around snow sadly my area the wrap around snows on the back side never really ever do much. unless its a monster storm that goes very negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 For Rt 50 south that NAM run isn't too great given the temp issues and dry slot. H54 850s torch until the coastal takes over so it will be sleet and then wrap around scraps. NAM has stuck to this solution for 6 runs now with some subtle changes due to temps. Hard to discount at this time. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, H2O said: For Rt 50 south that NAM run isn't too great given the temp issues and dry slot. H54 850s torch until the coastal takes over so it will be sleet and then wrap around scraps. NAM has stuck to this solution for 6 runs now with some subtle changes due to temps. Hard to discount at this time. Given that the mesos at this range don't look like the globals...how much stock do we put in them? (If any) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 So Fredericksburg gets .23” of liquid on the 3k and 1.3” on the Euro. Cool cool lol 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 We are so rusty in here. No one would be putting this much faith in the NAM @ 48hrs 5 years ago lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Pretty nice closing by the 3km NAM hours 54 to 60 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I know it’s out of range, but this is beautiful 6 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 NAM overamp bias? We shall see. Man oh man, the battle of the models continues. We’re talking about 75 mile shifts in any given direction but those shifts means the world of difference for the N and S fringes of the forum. Central MD seems to be sitting pretty for this one right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: NAM 3k also bringing wrap around snow LP off VB is tasty. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 NAM is something look at.....dont take it very seriously until 18z tomorrow at earliest 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 WB 3K NAM at 1 am 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, TSG said: We are so rusty in here. No one would be putting this much faith in the NAM @ 48hrs 5 years ago lol No one can ever resist hugging whatever model pukes the most snow in their yard lol. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: LP off VB is tasty. Would a precip field expand that far west if the low is that far east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 LWX going warnings now ETA - watches still for NE parts of the CWA 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Tomorrow is when the Namings come, will hold judgement until then. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 No mention of sleet in the DC metro ZFP at 333pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 24 minutes ago, bncho said: I thought 5-8" IMBY and I'm still thinking that just because of the model uncertainity. Do you think more or less? I think giving potential for mixing, I’d say your max will be right around that 8” mark. I think 5-8” is right on the money with the current forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 If the wrap around occurs like on some models. Then snow totals could be higher than forecasted.. probably gonna be a nowcast.. LWX is always conservative untill we're in the middle of the storm anyhow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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