Paleocene Posted Saturday at 08:14 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:14 PM 28 minutes ago, yoda said: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd Afternoon winter disco from 237pm "As this surface low deepens and move east, impressive moisture will be drawn northward from the Gulf of Mexico within a corridor of intensifying isentropic ascent, especially within the 290-295K surfaces. Here, mixing ratios climb to 4-6 g/kg, reflective of the impressive moist driven by the warm advection, further evidenced by PW anomalies surging to above the 97th percentile according to NAEFS." we're pulling that good gulf juice into this baby. Visible on those nam charts ravens is pulling 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Saturday at 08:14 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:14 PM 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Oh yeah. I would say 5” at the worst and 10-12” if everything just breaks perfectly. I’d say 6-10” is a great call for your neck of the woods. I’m sure that’s what Sterling and WPC are rolling with as well. The backend fun with the vort pass is going to be the biggest question mark and if that breaks properly, there will be a lot of happy people in here. I thought 5-8" IMBY and I'm still thinking that just because of the model uncertainity. Do you think more or less? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Saturday at 08:14 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:14 PM Stronger closed 850 low and Stronger advection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Saturday at 08:14 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:14 PM Ripping snow EZF north at 09z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Saturday at 08:15 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:15 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Saturday at 08:15 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:15 PM Northern crew will like the NAM as well. NOVA/DC fighting the sleet line. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted Saturday at 08:15 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:15 PM Just now, SnowenOutThere said: When do you think we could have a good handle on the vort pass and backend snow situation? It seems that the models that are the best with the WAA for my area sorta miss with the backend and vise versa. Want to make an updated forecast for my friends and family but am waiting for more agreement on that last part, and thanks for the post! No problem! I’d say they’ll start having a better idea by tomorrow, but remember the dynamics will be different, so banding and such might take near game time for that feature to get narrowed in. I’m hoping that comes to fruition. That has surprise upside if it comes together properly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Saturday at 08:16 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:16 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted Saturday at 08:16 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:16 PM 2 minutes ago, bncho said: I thought 5-8" IMBY and I'm still thinking that just because of the model uncertainity. Do you think more or less? I think 4-8” for your hood is a good call based on what we’re seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted Saturday at 08:17 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:17 PM NAM overamping a system at range? Impossible. Never happened before. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Saturday at 08:17 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:17 PM Strong 850 frontogenesis across NoVA but warm nose over the potomac river, so it’s sleet verbatim (12k version, haven’t looked at 3k) Edit: changes back to snow next panel 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Saturday at 08:17 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:17 PM 30 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Its a beatdown. It has a nasty dryslot and drives the primary up into central WV. But this is right at that point. No clue what it would do with the ULL after this. But a serious hit on the front end. And should make the northern crew feel a little better. I mean...this is the HRRR, so color kw skeptical for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Saturday at 08:18 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:18 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted Saturday at 08:18 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:18 PM 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Strong 850 frontogenesis across NoVA but warm nose over the potomac river, so it’s sleet verbatim such a thin Warm Nose too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted Saturday at 08:19 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:19 PM 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Strong 850 frontogenesis across NoVA but warm nose over the potomac river, so it’s sleet verbatim (12k version, haven’t looked at 3k) It's interesting because it goes back to heavy snow at 45. If rates are heavy enough, even if there is a slight warm nose, can it be more rimed flakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted Saturday at 08:19 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:19 PM 35 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Ok how accurate are his maps normally? Lol Ughhh that’s the kiss of death. I honestly would have preferred that had shown a Richmond bullseye. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Saturday at 08:19 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:19 PM 3K holds onto the cold for longer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Saturday at 08:21 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:21 PM 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: 3K holds onto the cold for longer. 3k says we don’t flip at all 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted Saturday at 08:21 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:21 PM Honestly, I’d rather had a couple hours sleet and back to heavy snow than have this thing shift south like the Ukie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Saturday at 08:21 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:21 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted Saturday at 08:22 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:22 PM I mean…the precip coverage is absolutely nothing like any other piece of guidance. Zero snow se of dc though almost all of Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Saturday at 08:23 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:23 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Saturday at 08:23 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:23 PM Just now, LeesburgWx said: Honestly, I’d rather had a couple hours sleet and back to heavy snow than have this thing shift south like the Ukie Yeah I also think with strong frontogenesis and high DGZ rates, it’ll overcome any thin warm nose and keep it heavy snow with some riming. But as soon as those rates let up, it’s going to be sleet or freezing drizzle as with a dry slot. I don’t think we lose any real accums with it, maybe an inch if that. And the snowpack will be tougher. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Saturday at 08:25 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:25 PM The 3k is a thing of beauty for a lot of folks in here. Will make many friends. Someone post a map. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted Saturday at 08:25 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:25 PM Call (first and last) ... 7 to 12 in widespread in all areas, tapering to 4 in s VA. DCA _ 7.5" IAD _ 11.0" FDK _ 12.5" BWI _ 9.5" SBY _ 5.5" RIC _ 3.7" 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted Saturday at 08:27 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:27 PM 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: The 3k is a thing of beauty for a lot of folks in here. Will make many friends. Someone post a map. Thru 49 hours. Possibly some wraparound to come later after a dry period. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Saturday at 08:27 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:27 PM WB 3K NAM through 3pm Mon. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted Saturday at 08:27 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:27 PM 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: The 3k is a thing of beauty for a lot of folks in here. Will make many friends. Someone post a map. 3k is a disaster south of dc. Most north out of any model. 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted Saturday at 08:27 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:27 PM The 3k is a thing of beauty for a lot of folks in here. Will make many friends. Someone post a map. Backend precip still going on! Cant post a map yet. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Saturday at 08:27 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:27 PM NAM shifted more north. Closed 850low and stronger primary did the damage. Something to watch going forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts