psuhoffman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: With the north tick on the models I wonder if LWX will increase amounts? There isn't really a north tick, the more south models are coming in north but the more north ones are coming in south...they are converging on the solution, but the NWS had already factored on this and was a blend so I don't see why they would need to adjust... 2 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: There isn't really a north tick, the more south models are coming in north but the more north ones are coming in south...they are converging on the solution, but the NWS had already factored on this and was a blend so I don't see why they would need to adjust... Ahh ok . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NVAwx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 46 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Latest HRRR has first flakes out here around 9. Seems a bit quicker than earlier runs? but consistent with the LWX forecast I think. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Blizzard conditions in Kansas. Stormchaser Tyler Kurtz’s vehicle incapacitated in the snow. It’s happening! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Blizzard conditions in Kansas. Stormchaser Tyler Kurtz’s vehicle incapacitated in the snow. It’s happening! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, NVAwx said: but consistent with the LWX forecast I think. I'm having trouble reconciling those times with HRRR and the 3k. The maps seems quite a bit earlier than the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, IronTy said: I'm having trouble reconciling those times with HRRR and the 3k. The maps seems quite a bit earlier than the models? Models are in Z time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, IronTy said: I'm having trouble reconciling those times with HRRR and the 3k. The maps seems quite a bit earlier than the models? It actually matches the HRRR (and several other models quite well), although I'd lean towards the latter parts of those time periods. The NAMs have a clear bias towards too slow of an onset in precipitation, and that is true whether it's summer convection or a winter storm. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NVAwx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 14 minutes ago, IronTy said: I'm having trouble reconciling those times with HRRR and the 3k. The maps seems quite a bit earlier than the models? Subtract 5 hours in the winter for EST! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I am looking at heavy snow on traffic cams well over 1000 miles away from each other from the same storm. It's insane. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NVAwx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Is the severe weather side of the storm progressing as modeled? I recall one storm in the early 2000s where the severe outbreak robbed all the moisture/energy from the snow side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Doh my bad, forgot about z-time....that explains it. Thanks guys! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 @stormtracker you reading the will of the King? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, NVAwx said: Subtract 4 hours in the winter for EST! It's 5 hours in the winter. 4 in summer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Moderate snow into Big Stone Gap in South Western Va. Progressing nicely. Cam wont let me copy it though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, IronTy said: Doh my bad, forgot about z-time....that explains it. Thanks guys! You should have just said that you were looking at the NAM (which is 2 hours slower than most other guidance). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 high level clouds streaming overhead in DC. It begins. 4 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 how we liking this 12z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Slightly later arrival on the 12z euro compared to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Furthest East I see on VA cams is just east of Wytheville, VA. Chill might get into something in a couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Looks like a very slight shift south with the heaviest precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, Shad said: how we liking this 12z Euro? Not much difference as far as snow is concerned. I guess that's a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 WB 12Z EURO 13 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Would be really cool if that jack over Calvert verified. Would exceed 2016. Told my local buddies to all open their fridge doors and turn 'em up to max to do our part. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, IronTy said: Would be really cool if that jack over Calvert verified. Would exceed 2016. Told my local buddies to all open their fridge doors and turn 'em up to max to do our part. @usedtobe would be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: high level clouds streaming overhead in DC. It begins. Would have loved it sooner. My temps have raced up from a low of 16 to 36. Oooof 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 WB 12Z EUROModels have shown their hand. Secs to the north, mecs to the south. There’s gonna be little pockets of surprises as always, but the precip jack has been generally closer to dc and south for several days now.It’s nowcast time. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, HighStakes said: He's great. So many other top notch experts here. This boards has got to be the number 1 source for expert analysis bar none. We civilians are so fortunate to be able to interact with them. It's like the average fan chatting basketball with Magic Johnson on a regular basis. I am NOT putting myself in the same category as many here but this is one of the truer things ever said on this board. The talent that shows up here is off the charts good. Glad some of you recognize that. 24 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, H2O said: Would have loved it sooner. My temps have raced up from a low of 16 to 36. Oooof gotta come up here to DC's Himalayas where we are still below freezing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Someone make an observations thread. It’s time. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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