snowmagnet Posted Sunday at 04:21 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:21 PM Millville seemed right on target 3 days ago with his forecast of 8-12” for much of the area. All the models agree with the DMV being in the bullseye. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted Sunday at 04:22 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:22 PM 1 hour ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Agreed and THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT I HAVE TOLD THEM ,,,,,,,,, Or they can reenact Donner Pass 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted Sunday at 04:22 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:22 PM 1 minute ago, snowmagnet said: Millville seemed right on target 3 days ago with his forecast of 8-12” for much of the area. All the models agree with the DMV being in the bullseye. Same with DT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Sunday at 04:23 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:23 PM 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Is this the obs thread too? Great day 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted Sunday at 04:24 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:24 PM Just now, snowmagnet said: Millville seemed right on target 3 days ago with his forecast of 8-12” for much of the area. All the models agree with the DMV being in the bullseye. He's great. So many other top notch experts here. This boards has got to be the number 1 source for expert analysis bar none. We civilians are so fortunate to be able to interact with them. It's like the average fan chatting basketball with Magic Johnson on a regular basis. 21 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted Sunday at 04:28 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:28 PM 2 minutes ago, HighStakes said: He's great. So many other top notch experts here. This boards has got to be the number 1 source for expert analysis bar none. We civilians are so fortunate to be able to interact with them. It's like the average fan chatting basketball with Magic Johnson on a regular basis. Concur, there are Top Notch Red Tagger Mets in here 12 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted Sunday at 04:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:34 PM 4 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Concur, there are Top Notch Red Tagger Mets in here Wxman1 is a favorite of mine. The name says it all. Number 1. He knows shit. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Sunday at 04:35 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:35 PM UKIE caved. Much better this run. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted Sunday at 04:35 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:35 PM Just now, BristowWx said: Wxman1 is a favorite of mine. The name says it all. Number 1. He knows shit. I think you are missing a word. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted Sunday at 04:36 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:36 PM Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I think you are missing a word. lol a lot of shit…lol… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Sunday at 04:42 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:42 PM Based off mPING reports snow starts quickly after returns move overhead. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted Sunday at 04:45 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:45 PM 21 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Or they can reenact Donner Pass My mummy is yummy Sorry. I will behave rest of way. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted Sunday at 04:45 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:45 PM Following live storm coverage here. https://youtu.be/49nNsTMVAdk You can watch them push cars out of ditches, get thundersnow updates, etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted Sunday at 04:47 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:47 PM 1 hour ago, JakkelWx said: ??? Same here! From 2021. I was lurking this whole time and saw this post and HAD to chime in lol. lol many years earler 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted Sunday at 04:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:48 PM 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Wxman1 is a favorite of mine. The name says it all. Number 1. He knows shit. Well, I thank you. There really are some excellent mets on this board, and it has been great following and keeping in touch with them and all the weather enthusiasts for well over a decade now. Heck even during the Eastern US Wx board days. Let me just add... collectively we are essentially a ML/AI model. So much experience in this room, we've seen it all, or just about, in the last couple of decades. That really helps forecasting events like this. Think the mean and mode for the immediate metro region will be 6-8", maybe 7-9". That's what the probabilistic maps are suggesting. Certainly 10-11" will be possible wherever that FGEN band sets up later Monday. Maybe along Rte 50, though probably south. Either way, some cold smoke coming, at the right perfect time of year climatically speaking. Enjoy it everyone! 21 4 1 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Sunday at 04:49 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:49 PM First flakes into western WV. Comes in like a wall it looks like. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted Sunday at 04:49 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:49 PM DCA 5-minute ob is currently 36/1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Sunday at 04:51 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:51 PM 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: DCA 5-minute ob is currently 36/1. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted Sunday at 04:51 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:51 PM 3 minutes ago, WxMan1 said: Well, I thank you. There really are some excellent mets on this board, and it has been great following and keeping in touch with them and all the weather enthusiasts for well over a decade now. Heck even during the Eastern US Wx board days. Let me just add... collectively we are essentially a ML/AI model. So much experience in this room, we've seen it all, or just about, in the last couple of decades. That really helps forecasting events like this. Think the mean and mode for the immediate metro region will be 6-8", maybe 7-9". That's what the probabilistic maps are suggesting. Certainly 10-11" will be possible wherever that FGEN band sets up later Monday. Maybe along Rte 50, though probably south. Either way, some cold smoke coming, at the right perfect time of year climatically speaking. Enjoy it everyone! gonna train a new model on all the red-taggers' posts lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted Sunday at 04:55 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:55 PM So what did euro and ukmet get wrong?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Sunday at 04:56 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:56 PM WB 12Z HRDPS (high res.) came north and is in line with other guidance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Sunday at 04:59 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:59 PM 1 hour ago, clskinsfan said: ICON Ensemble has many more northern SLPS this run. Trending north for sure. Liking the north tick! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Sunday at 05:00 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:00 PM 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z HRDPS (high res.) came north and is in line with other guidance. So glad they came north !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Sunday at 05:01 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:01 PM With the north tick on the models I wonder if LWX will increase amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted Sunday at 05:02 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:02 PM 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: Liking the north tick! We can usually count on the North trend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Sunday at 05:02 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:02 PM Just now, winter_warlock said: With the north tick on the models I wonder if LWX will increase amounts? Only really ticking north in the most south of models coming in line with the rest. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted Sunday at 05:03 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:03 PM Just now, winter_warlock said: With the north tick on the models I wonder if LWX will increase amounts? Don’t think so. I think they have been anticipating the north trend with their current forecast. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 05:03 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:03 PM 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: With the north tick on the models I wonder if LWX will increase amounts? There isn't really a north tick, the more south models are coming in north but the more north ones are coming in south...they are converging on the solution, but the NWS had already factored on this and was a blend so I don't see why they would need to adjust... 2 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Sunday at 05:04 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:04 PM 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: There isn't really a north tick, the more south models are coming in north but the more north ones are coming in south...they are converging on the solution, but the NWS had already factored on this and was a blend so I don't see why they would need to adjust... Ahh ok . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NVAwx Posted Sunday at 05:08 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:08 PM 46 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Latest HRRR has first flakes out here around 9. Seems a bit quicker than earlier runs? but consistent with the LWX forecast I think. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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