Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, clskinsfan said: There arent that many runs left until first flakes. By 12z tomorrow it will adjust. Kinda like the euro wrong until the last minute 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: CR grad here. Good luck!!! ??? Same here! From 2021. I was lurking this whole time and saw this post and HAD to chime in lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: There arent that many runs left until first flakes. Hard to see gfs, euro fold to the Rgem but who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 These cams in Kentucky are amazing. They are getting raked. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, Tito said: I am liking right where I am in Dover TBH.. I don’t believe we will mix if we ever do. there's a trail i plan on doing a jebwalk that i've been to during the jan 19 2024 storm. radar looks healthy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Precip approaching WV/KY border. Cirrus faintly visible to my west. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: These cams in Kentucky are amazing. They are getting raked. It’s fascinating looking at Google Maps with traffic mode zoomed out. You can immediately see where snow’s on interstates based on the yellows. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Does any met want to chime in on if thundersnow could even be a possibility for anyone in the forum? I know Kansas City and some other places have had some with this storm so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 HRRR likes some lightning 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Currently in a bit of a dry slot in SE Missouri, but basically none of the FZRA has materialized in my area. Very light snow at the moment after about 2 inches of pounding sleet earlier this AM. Also, NWS St. Louis has slightly increased totals to my north. And added this nice gem: We also did add thunder to the forecast as there have been notable convective elements and occasional lightning. So yeah, this storm has a history of thunder and lightning. I can't imagine that changing when it gets to you all. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Interesting signature for banding in the 06z GFS (and 06z 3-km NAM) around 12z-18z Monday, just as the dry air starts to work in above 600 mb. This dry air above the lower-level moisture produces convective instability above the frontal surface between 750-650 mb south of the frontogenesis max around 800 mb. This instability would favor vertical motion and ice crystal generating cells just to the north of the approaching dry air. Given the temperatures > -12C and the likely presence of supercooled water, graupel is a definite possibility within this area of precipitation. 6 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 GFS juiced up a bit for Roanoke area and straight directly east/se along I-64...looks the same so far for everyone else 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Dry slot seems to be a touch further east this run on the GFS. Backside looking decent too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Dry slot seems to be a touch further east this run on the GFS. Backside looking decent too. seems a lil drier on the northern fringe too 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, stormtracker said: seems a lil drier on the northern fringe too Overall just a bit drier. Gfs likes to dry systems up close to game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 ICON Ensemble has many more northern SLPS this run. Trending north for sure. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Overall just a bit drier. Gfs likes to dry systems up close to game time. Yeah...with the Short Range/meso juiced up, I'm not super worried about the GFS...but even at "dry" it's a 5-10 deal in this area 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Where do I sign? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Where do I sign? No complaints. If my bottom worst case is 6-8”, where do I sign? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 It does look like snow is moving into southern Iowa where Nam and Rgem show nothing. Gfs does give them what they are forecasted so that’s a start. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 @usedtobe potentially in the jackpot zone on multiple pieces of guidance 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I think we all have to be realistic that the super-HRRR runs with a large swath of a foot plus are a bit of a reach. If we are all sitting with a nice 6-10" will some lollis, that is a win. 11 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Pretty large jump north on GGEM. Much closer to GFS, but still a bit south. 0.5” precip line went from well south of DC on 0z to north of a IAD-BWI line. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Pretty large jump north on GGEM. Much closer to GFS, but still a bit south. 0.5” precip line went from well south of DC on 0z to north of a IAD-BWI line. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 48 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: By 12z tomorrow it will adjust. Kinda like the euro wrong until the last minute The GFS had the mix line into PA 2.5 days ago. It moved to the Euro way more than the other way around 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 52 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: ??? Same here! From 2021. I was lurking this whole time and saw this post and HAD to chime in lol. How long have you been back in the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 We’re starting to get really good agreement. Everything looks the same now pretty much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Is this the obs thread too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Is this the obs thread too? We’ll do a new thread after euro. You can make it now if you want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Latest HRRR has first flakes out here around 9. Seems a bit quicker than earlier runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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