dallen7908 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 1:53 PM, D-Train said: Is the storm coming in quicker than originally forecast? NWS updated their timing and it looks like 3-4 hours earlier than what they had shown yesterday. Would appreciate the insight - we have events that go until 7pm tonight in Dulles and it will be right on the edge of the beginning of snow, based on the latest maps. Expand Both the 06 UTC GFS and ECWMF have the snow reaching DC by 11 PM but warm-advection snow often starts an hour or so before forecast. ... but go with the NWS as they look at more information than the above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Busy morning with daughter’s playdate. I’ll try to sneak my final call before the 18z runs. I think DC metro + all suburbs will like it. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 NAM twins both seems bit drier and further south. But still a good snowstorm for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:04 PM, Terpeast said: Busy morning with daughter’s playdate. I’ll try to sneak my final call before the 18z runs. I think DC metro + all suburbs will like it. Expand Your daughter needs to understand that sacrifices must be made. 12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:00 PM, WxUSAF said: CWG bumped totals to 6-10” for most. 4-8” for M/D line crew and south of Stafford Va to St Mary’s MD. Expand Is it just me or have the CWG write ups been "dumbed down" since last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 FV3 sets up a nice band along the Mason Dixon Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Very vigorous system , thunder noted https://x.com/burgwx/status/1875904212544127081 The major snowstorm is taking shape over the Plains as the surface cyclone is quickly developing and deepening — numerous reports of thunder alongside snow & sleet in Kansas so far! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Ooof 12z nam is not great up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 NAM is definitely a sharp cutoff near PA border. However, mid level fronto/deformation sort of lingers there in the nrn burbs. I think that will help accumulations there while DC flirts with crappy flakes or IP/FZDZ for a time before the mid level low moves in. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:10 PM, mappy said: Ooof 12z nam is not great up here. Expand It’s pretty much in line with other models now. But actually somehow drier than the euro lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3k is still nice with the coastal for us. But def drier overall everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 FV3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:15 PM, TSSN+ said: It’s pretty much in line with other models now. But actually somehow drier than the euro lol Expand I’m not really looking at snow maps, just qpf. Much drier imby. ~.3 qpf by 9pm tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:16 PM, mappy said: I’m not really looking at snow maps, just qpf. Much drier imby. ~.3 qpf by 9pm tomorrow Expand Ya but .3” with the ratios we going to get should give us at least 5” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eucker Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:09 PM, frd said: Very vigorous system , thunder noted https://x.com/burgwx/status/1875904212544127081 The major snowstorm is taking shape over the Plains as the surface cyclone is quickly developing and deepening — numerous reports of thunder alongside snow & sleet in Kansas so far! Is there a chance for thundersnow in the DC area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:16 PM, mappy said: I’m not really looking at snow maps, just qpf. Much drier imby. ~.3 qpf by 9pm tomorrow Expand The QPF shield shunts a bit to the SE so where you are is right on the edge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:17 PM, TSSN+ said: Ya but .3” with the ratios we going to get should give us at least 5” Expand Oh for sure. But I liked the .6+ qpf much better haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:16 PM, mappy said: I’m not really looking at snow maps, just qpf. Much drier imby. ~.3 qpf by 9pm tomorrow Expand Definitely drier. Seems maybe due to weaker shortwave. Confluence is actually backed off notably even vs 6z run. But shortwave can’t pull in as much moisture perhaps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 1:46 PM, wxdude64 said: He wants to get thru there then. My 'start time' is 4 pm here, same as Roanoke. His trip from Roanoke down to I-77/I-40 meet may be a bit dicey. Expand Thanks,,,,,,,ps they are still in my house with their Dog ,,,,,,,,Im leaning towards telling them just to stay here and not head home today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 WB 12Z 3K NAM less moisture to north compared to 6Z, but snow totals still good as opposed to fantastic. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:18 PM, CoastalWx said: The QPF shield shunts a bit to the SE so where you are is right on the edge. Expand Always a risk with the setup. I’m about at my point to stop model watching. It’s gonna snow all the same 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmvpete Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:19 PM, WxUSAF said: Definitely drier. Seems maybe due to weaker shortwave. Confluence is actually backed off notably even vs 6z run. But shortwave can’t pull in as much moisture perhaps. Expand Haven't dug into it a ton, but at first glance, this observation plus a weaker/flatter 850mb jet is resulting in less WAA at low levels (more WSW orientation aimed at the Eastern Shore, not more SW aimed at the Mason-Dixon) is one of the culprits. I still see some 700mb FGEN up near the M-D so that's why some of these totals aren't too sharp on gradient to the north and still reach warning criteria for parts of northern MD, but should that trend weaker, then that northern area (while having high SLRs) will be squeezing out every bit of moisture to meet warning criteria. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:23 PM, Weather Will said: WB 12Z 3K NAM less moisture to north compared to 6Z, but snow totals still good as opposed to fantastic. Expand Disappointing as 3K had been so consistent. Hopefully, just a one-run blip. We’ve seen that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:17 PM, TSSN+ said: Ya but .3” with the ratios we going to get should give us at least 5” Expand You really think you’re getting 17:1 ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxlvr Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:20 PM, Brasiluvsnow said: Thanks,,,,,,,ps they are still in my house with their Dog ,,,,,,,,Im leaning towards telling them just to stay here and not head home today Expand If they don't leave today, they shouldn't for two or three days. If they leave today, they should go down I-95 for a later snow start. But they would have to leave NOW! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Here is something to watch very early to see how accurate nam is. It has no snow reaching the southern counties of Iowa and they are under warnings for 4-8”. Let’s see how that pays out over the next few hours. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:34 PM, snowfan said: You really think you’re getting 17:1 ratios? Expand I will be shocked if Mappy doesnt get at least 5 inches. The cutoff is going to be sharp and harsh though. No doubt. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:34 PM, snowfan said: You really think you’re getting 17:1 ratios? Expand If the right bands set up absolutely! 15:1 is actually likely assuming we're not sitting under light returns getting pine needles. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 12z FV3 was really nice. Good backend stuff for most of us too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:37 PM, TSSN+ said: Here is something to watch very early to see how accurate nam is. It has no snow reaching the southern counties of Iowa and they are under warnings for 4-8”. Let’s see how that pays out over the next few hours. Expand Looks like it went south by two rows of counties. Something to keep in mind, yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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