psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 10:14 AM Share Posted Sunday at 10:14 AM 18 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 6z GFS remains dry and south.. gets DC to 6". Seems to snow quite a bit in Richmond. Big differences between GFS and NAM A LOT of that qpf in Richmond is sleet and freezing rain on the GFS. They do get about 4" of snow and sleet. This isn't as crazy as the CAM models but it doesn't look as bad as you are making it out... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted Sunday at 10:22 AM Share Posted Sunday at 10:22 AM Looks like the GFS has finally caved to the Euro. It was definitely singing a much different song yesterday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 10:27 AM Share Posted Sunday at 10:27 AM 3 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: Looks like the GFS has finally caved to the Euro. It was definitely singing a much different song yesterday. They met in the middle, which wasn't good enough for you, you needed the northern most camp to win 100%. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted Sunday at 10:38 AM Share Posted Sunday at 10:38 AM Idk if you guys checked the other thread for later in the week.... Never thought I would live through something to rival 2010 but it's getting close. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted Sunday at 10:38 AM Share Posted Sunday at 10:38 AM 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: They met in the middle, which wasn't good enough for you, you needed the northern most camp to win 100%. Idk about "meet in the middle". the GFS did about 80% of the movement Last 6 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Sunday at 10:41 AM Share Posted Sunday at 10:41 AM 3 minutes ago, peribonca said: Idk if you guys checked the other thread for later in the week.... Never thought I would live through something to rival 2010 but it's getting close. The -NAO isn't holding like 09-10 and the Pacific pattern is kind of breaking down.. I wouldn't hold too high hopes for this next one, there is a chance it could be rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted Sunday at 10:45 AM Share Posted Sunday at 10:45 AM 2 hours ago, TSSN+ said: Beat down city Lol. 18 " up in the Catoctins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted Sunday at 10:46 AM Share Posted Sunday at 10:46 AM Updated map from LWX 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 11:00 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:00 AM 20 minutes ago, TSG said: Idk about "meet in the middle". the GFS did about 80% of the movement Last 6 runs. Looks like the GFS shifted the axis about 50 miles south and the Euro 30 miles north. That's a pretty common compromise between the two when they diverge by that much at that range. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 11:08 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:08 AM 24 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: The -NAO isn't holding like 09-10 and the Pacific pattern is kind of breaking down.. I wouldn't hold too high hopes for this next one, there is a chance it could be rain What are you looking at? This is the setup for the day 7 threat. Monster 50/50 with a decaying -NAO over the top as the storm ejects from the rockies. Thats pretty classic. How good a pattern do you think we need to get snow? After that around day 10 the pattern reloads one more time with a monster 50/50 under a -NAO one last time before the pacific shifts by day 15. But we have 2 legit threat windows after the current storm before that happens. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted Sunday at 11:10 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:10 AM 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Looks like the GFS shifted the axis about 50 miles south and the Euro 30 miles north. That's a pretty common compromise between the two when they diverge by that much at that range. The axis of heavy precip to our West was as far North as Cinncinnati into SWPA on the GFS. It's now moved that into central KY and Southern WV. More like a 100 mile shift imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Sunday at 11:19 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:19 AM WB 6Z EURO 8 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 11:23 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:23 AM 9 minutes ago, TSG said: The axis of heavy precip to our West was as far North as Cinncinnati into SWPA on the GFS. It's now moved that into central KY and Southern WV. More like a 100 mile shift imo You're looking at the northern edge of "heavy" precip, I think, not sure if you're using .5 as the basis for that...but the GFS always tightens up the gradient on the northern edge. It is always, and I mean ALWAYS too expansive and not nearly tight enough with the sharp cutoff on the edges and tightens that up the final 24-48 hours. Instead of it taking 60 miles to go from .5 to .1 in reality it will happen in 25 miles and the GFS tends to smooth that out too much at range. That tightening accounts for a lot of that deterioration, it didn't actually shift south...draw a line across the middle of the axis of the heaviest qpf, and compare where it is from the start to the end...it only moved it a little...it just tightened up the northern edge a lot, which was to be expected. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Sunday at 11:24 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:24 AM Damn is the euro refreshing to see as a wake up. Assuming no major 12z changes, hard not to just roll with a euro/3k NAM blend. Crazy uncle remains crazy. Euro showing tight gradient on the north side, but mostly in PA/NJ is what we thought would happen and now it’s there on guidance. 18 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Sunday at 11:45 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:45 AM Looked at 6z 3k NAM soundings. DC definitely stays all snow verbatim. Close at 12-13z, but it seems that may partially be due to lighter precip. Column cools again at 14-15z when things get a little heavier. Soundings tomorrow evening are beautiful for 12-15:1 fluff. Plan your @Jebman Jebwalks accordingly. 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted Sunday at 11:48 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:48 AM This is just fascinating stuff. I have been up nearly all NIGHT! And I am in south central Texas lmao! What's more, I was out trying to do deliveries BUT I got slightly engrossed in this thread lol. I hope with all my heart, that the Mid Atlantic gets so demolished tomorrow night into Tuesday night by this. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Sunday at 11:59 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:59 AM 50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What are you looking at? This is the setup for the day 7 threat. Monster 50/50 with a decaying -NAO over the top as the storm ejects from the rockies. Thats pretty classic. How good a pattern do you think we need to get snow? After that around day 10 the pattern reloads one more time with a monster 50/50 under a -NAO one last time before the pacific shifts by day 15. But we have 2 legit threat windows after the current storm before that happens. It evolves different when the storm moves east. I don't like that Pacific look with a flat ridge under +WPO. It's not a real strong pattern, but the pattern does de-evolve as you go forward from when the 500mb low is in Mexico lol several days earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Sunday at 12:00 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:00 PM Anyone have pretty HREF maps? HREF, not SREF. From what I saw on Twitter (probably old now), it likes DC-Baltimore as the max stripe, but solid for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Sunday at 12:04 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:04 PM 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I just got home so I figured I would put out a map now that I have access to a computer. I will probably have to adjust this some tomorrow but this is my thinking right now. 6z Nam has that 2 areas of max where yours are located. 2 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Sunday at 12:24 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:24 PM Latest Srefs coming in line with mesos as it lightens up qpf/snow north side. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025010509&fh=60&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted Sunday at 12:25 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:25 PM Right in the middle of it out here in SE Missouri. So far a touch colder than the original forecast. FRZA totals are likely gonna come in lighter for us. Which is great. Pretty heavy sleet this early AM which is less great but I prefer that over ice. Anyway, she’s definitely juicy and right now doing OK on temps if you’re a borderline area. When she shows up tomorrow in your backyard I wish you luck old friends! 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx12 Posted Sunday at 12:27 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:27 PM What the DC TV stations are saying on the 7 am news about the DC metro: Channel 4: 5"-8"+ Channel 5: 4"-8" Channel 7: 5"-10 (4"-8" SW parts) Channel 9: 6"-10"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kristia Posted Sunday at 12:31 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:31 PM 1 hour ago, Chris78 said: Lol. 18 " up in the Catoctins Speaking for everyone here (except those who hate fun), we are ok with this 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted Sunday at 12:31 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:31 PM 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EURO And the northern folk say…FINALLY to the euro. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted Sunday at 12:31 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:31 PM 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Latest Srefs coming in line with mesos as it lightens up qpf/snow north side. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=srefens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025010509&fh=60&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Gut punch but knew it felt inevitable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx12 Posted Sunday at 12:33 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:33 PM WTOP radio in DC is calling for 4"-8", maybe up to 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Sunday at 12:34 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:34 PM Euro trending north the last 3 runs in a row shocker. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Sunday at 12:35 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:35 PM HRRR looks good 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Sunday at 12:35 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:35 PM 1 minute ago, Wxdavis5784 said: Gut punch but knew it felt inevitable Nam, Hrrr, and Nams both showing that tendency, so inevitable. But those are 10:1 ratios. Still hoping for 6"+. With any luck, slight trend north continues with each run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Sunday at 12:37 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:37 PM RAP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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