TSSN+ Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, psuhoffman said: I types that up just before the run hit. The euro did almost exactly what I hoped and now looks really close to what I envisioned. I’d maybe expect another slight beefing up of the QPF along the PA line area but not much. Maybe another .1 qpf. But that’s another 1-2” which gets that area into that 5-8” range I’ve been thinking all along. Give us 2 more those and we in the good cookin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Huuuge run. I’d be pretty stoked if I’m in BAL MoCo HoCo and points N after tonight’s runs. Should see warnings hoisted soon. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 22 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: you're all one collective mass. You're only as strong as your weakest poster. Fair enough but that means you own that snjokoma poster that shows up to junk up the obs threads every time! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 29 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z EURO 1pm Tues: finally worth staying up late for! Nice wallpaper. North, south, south, north...break out the pom poms, stock up on bread and milk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 8 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: We got this! Even with us getting in the goods, DC still will be too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Still like for now my call of 3-5" imby. Final guess by Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Latest SREF is in and it’s farther south and juicy! With a little more snow to get through past this hour. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Latest from LWX 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Who's staying up for the 06z HRRR? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, KAOS said: I'm going to assume that purple is nuking snow. What model is that anyway? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 By hour 12 you can already tell where the hrrr is heading. If you pull up the rgem for instance it’s night and day apart by hour 12. That doesn’t mean it’s right but if it fails it’s not because it’s out of range. The divergence happens in the first 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 https://kaosfactory.github.io/wxblox/fmap2.html?lat=39.124269,-76.5374861 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 HRRR looks like another good run. 5 inches already by 5AM monday for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 HRRR has 9 inches for DC at 8AM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 06Z HRRR is a small shift south with the heaviest totals, and overall a bit south of 00z, but very good regionwide. It's also a complete mauling for the central part of the forum -- Kuchera has 13" at DCA by 1 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6z Hrr has 12" snow depth for DC by hr33. Could be a 15"'er. Anyone know why the RAP and HRR are on this page, 12-15" snow depth is pretty significant - although the mesoscale of those models beyond shorter ranges isn't good, I might expect other models to juice up a little in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 HRRR is noticeably more south. DC in the middle of bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Um, WOW! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 DC-Annapolis, most of Delaware, 15-18" snow depth on 6z Hrr. Anyone know why it's so extreme? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, ravensrule said: Most likely because it’s wrong. I could see other models juicing up a little bit though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I could see other models juicing up a little bit though. To that level I would be very surprised. A little yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, ravensrule said: To that level I would be very surprised. A little yes. Even as a meteorologist, if the HRRR is even close to right for this setup, I will get a custom, "I <3 the HRRR" T-shirt and wear it to work on another set of night shifts. I don't think it'll be right, but this is getting bonkers. 4 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Nice to see the euro caving to the Americans. We been here before where it's consistently wrong till the bell. NAM is Juicy looking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 HRRR goes bonkers on frontogenetical forcing in a cold column. I’ve seen it both overdone and underdone and when it busts it’s usually a bad one. The elements are there for heavy snow but we are not seeing a true upper level phase that would produce this type of snowfall. More so a 6-10 inch event with a few pockets of 12 is more likely in this setup. 90% of our snow will fall between 2 am and 10 am, purely WAA with frontogenetical banding. Beyond that it’s more complicated with the pass of the upper low and development of the coastal which will not phase. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 As exciting as it looks, take the HRRR with a grain of salt. If all of the high res models begin converging on a 12+ area wide event then it may be on to something. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6z NAM holding onto an 8-10" max around Baltimore.. pretty far north though. South of DC does not get that much snow on nam I'm at 19F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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