Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 4:14 AM, Interstate said: It is unbelievable that the models are still this far off so close. I fully expected one to cave tonight... I know we still have the Euro to run, but I fully expect it to hold as well. I guess onto to the 6z suite Expand At this rate 12z. I find it hard to believe these high res models are going to all fail and they been locked up for days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 4:14 AM, Chris78 said: If this ends up being south it would be quite the bust for the Americans. Expand First off... I do not know why anyone is posting the RAP. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 4:15 AM, high risk said: Note that this run does not include any of the 00Z model runs, and no NBM snow product contains any Canadian data. No NBM product at all contains any UKMET data. Expand Thanks, so essentially the 03z run will have 00z model ingested? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Gfs/ Euro fairly similar now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 So if you look at the UKIE and GFS H5 at H30... they look pretty similar to each other... so why is the surface precipitation so different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Ukie gets 0.6” to dc this run. A slight bump up to the M/D line 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 4:35 AM, LP08 said: Ukie gets 0.6” to dc this run. A slight bump up to the M/D line Expand Keeps coming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 3:17 AM, Jmister said: As we get closer to the event, tracking observations becomes more crucial to see how models are performing. This tool compares HRRR sim radar to the observed radar. As you can see, there are some noticible differences already in placement and intensity of precip.http://www.jmmweather.com/radar_comparison.html Please message me with any suggestions as this is a work in progress.This is great! So radar is a good 40-50 miles north of the last hrrr run, yea? Does that tell us the models keeping heavy snow south will likely adjust north?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Anyone have the 00Z UKmet kuchera totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 One of these models is terribly wrong. Hopefully it’s the UKIE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 4:48 AM, WVclimo said: Expand UK was so embarrassingly south, correcting itself it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 4:58 AM, nj2va said: UK was so embarrassingly south, correcting itself it seems. Expand Now its only about 50 miles off from the other models. Which isn’t much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Warnings are up for all but HoCo and northern tier. Hopefully the rest are a different warning to be issued soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Ukie depicting quite a cutoff with Kuchera... 3" in Baltimore but a foot in Waldorf? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 5:03 AM, Deck Pic said: I think I have a 40-60 chance at cracking my personal top 10. Beating February 2014 would be a nice accomplishment. I think the top 6 spots are safe Top 10 individual events since 04-05 winter IMBY 1) February 5-6, 2010 - 22.5" 2) January 22-23, 2016 - 20" 3) December 18-19, 2009 - 18.5" 4) February 9-10, 2010 - 12.5" t5) February 11-12, 2006, January 12-13, 2019 - 11" 7) February 12-13, 2014 - 9" 8) March 16-17, 2014 - 8" t9) March 1-2, 2009, January 3, 2022 - 7.5" Expand My weenie call - 1/6-7 enters the chat to take #8. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 5:02 AM, nw baltimore wx said: Warnings are up for all but HoCo and northern tier. Hopefully the rest are a different warning to be issued soon. Expand the LWX discussion says decisions will be made after the 0z runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 4:51 AM, jayyy said: One of these models is terribly wrong. Hopefully it’s the UKIE Expand Can we start with the NAM? And then the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 Varsity King is up. Good luck all. I forgot already what we're trying to will into existence. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 5:15 AM, stormtracker said: Varsity King is up. Good luck all. I forgot already what we're trying to will into existence. Expand Omg it’s better than the Hrrr and RAp 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 5:15 AM, stormtracker said: Varsity King is up. Good luck all. I forgot already what we're trying to will into existence. Expand But more realistic I want it to hold its 18z run but beef up the qpf in that northern fringe band like .1-.2 qpf. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 5:17 AM, psuhoffman said: Omg it’s better than the Hrrr and RAp Expand Took me a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 5:19 AM, nw baltimore wx said: Took me a minute. Expand It’s late and been a long week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 00z Euro running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 Looking good so far. No thermal problems...northern fringe of heaviest precip expanded just a bit..like 30 miles. Not saying the storm is moving north! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 Destroyed at 36. A bit wetter than 18z 16 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 5:20 AM, Deck Pic said: Everyone in Carroll county is going to be held to account for their relentless negativity if/when y'all score Expand I didn’t think I’ve been negative. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 Ok..imma run off to bed before the accumulation maps come out in case I'm wrong and be ran out of town 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 i know there have been some waffles but there has been remarkable consistency in the models for several days. A miracle of modern science. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 Ok..I'm not wrong. Axis of heaviest did move north a lil 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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