LP08 Posted Sunday at 03:56 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:56 AM Just now, nj2va said: We’re locked in for a warning-level event. Even the most south models have DC/VA Beltway 5”+. Upside of 10-12” if EVERYTHING breaks right including no mixing and ULL/coastal love. We’ve had pretty dang consistent runs for our area. Almost chips fall mode. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Sunday at 03:57 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:57 AM 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs will always be the driest model 24 hours out Is it normally the driest 24 ours out? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted Sunday at 04:03 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:03 AM Solid GFS run. 6-10 for many in the sub. 12z tomorrow will be very telling as we’ll be able to use higher res models for specifics on banding and more minute details surround temp profiles. Curious to see the NBM blend for 00z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Sunday at 04:05 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:05 AM GGEM is back south again. But kind of expected that after the RGEM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Sunday at 04:06 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:06 AM Just now, clskinsfan said: GGEM is back south again. But kind of expected that after the RGEM run. yeah once RGEM had its southern evolution, fully expected GGEM to follow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Sunday at 04:10 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:10 AM 1050 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 MDZ003>006-008-011-505>508-051200- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0002.250106T0300Z-250107T0600Z/ Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford- 1050 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow and sleet accumulations of 5 inches or greater and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch possible. A localized band with up to 10 inches of snow is possible if heavy banding sets up this far north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Sunday at 04:10 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:10 AM 00z NBM. Totals increased from an E/W swath between DC/balt basically including S NJ. Also increased in S PA north of C MD. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted Sunday at 04:12 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:12 AM All that matters, is Cleveland Park gets 14 inches of snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Sunday at 04:12 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:12 AM RAP just finished up. Still snowing here: 5 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted Sunday at 04:14 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:14 AM 1 minute ago, nj2va said: 00z NBM. Totals increased from an E/W swath between DC/balt basically including S NJ. Also increased in S PA north of C MD. We are still pretty far apart when you have RIC at either a foot or 3 inches 24 hours out. The after action report on this one should be telling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted Sunday at 04:14 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:14 AM Just now, clskinsfan said: RAP just finished up. Still snowing here: If this ends up being south it would be quite the bust for the Americans. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted Sunday at 04:14 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:14 AM It is unbelievable that the models are still this far off so close. I fully expected one to cave tonight... I know we still have the Euro to run, but I fully expect it to hold as well. I guess onto to the 6z suite 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Sunday at 04:15 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:15 AM Just now, Interstate said: It is unbelievable that the models are still this far off so close. I fully expected one to cave tonight... I know we still have the Euro to run, but I fully expect it to hold as well. I guess onto to the 6z suite That'll hold as well. Gotta wait until 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted Sunday at 04:15 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:15 AM 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: 00z NBM. Totals increased from an E/W swath between DC/balt basically including S NJ. Also increased in S PA north of C MD. Note that this run does not include any of the 00Z model runs, and no NBM snow product contains any Canadian data. No NBM product at all contains any UKMET data. 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted Sunday at 04:15 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:15 AM Just now, Interstate said: It is unbelievable that the models are still this far off so close. I fully expected one to cave tonight... I know we still have the Euro to run, but I fully expect it to hold as well. I guess onto to the 6z suite i mean in the grand scheme of things they are pretty damn close. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Sunday at 04:15 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:15 AM Just now, Interstate said: It is unbelievable that the models are still this far off so close. I fully expected one to cave tonight... I know we still have the Euro to run, but I fully expect it to hold as well. I guess onto to the 6z suite At this rate 12z. I find it hard to believe these high res models are going to all fail and they been locked up for days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted Sunday at 04:16 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:16 AM 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: If this ends up being south it would be quite the bust for the Americans. First off... I do not know why anyone is posting the RAP. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Sunday at 04:17 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:17 AM 1 minute ago, high risk said: Note that this run does not include any of the 00Z model runs, and no NBM snow product contains any Canadian data. No NBM product at all contains any UKMET data. Thanks, so essentially the 03z run will have 00z model ingested? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted Sunday at 04:18 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:18 AM Gfs/ Euro fairly similar now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted Sunday at 04:34 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:34 AM So if you look at the UKIE and GFS H5 at H30... they look pretty similar to each other... so why is the surface precipitation so different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted Sunday at 04:35 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:35 AM Ukie gets 0.6” to dc this run. A slight bump up to the M/D line 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Sunday at 04:38 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:38 AM 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: Ukie gets 0.6” to dc this run. A slight bump up to the M/D line Keeps coming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted Sunday at 04:38 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:38 AM As we get closer to the event, tracking observations becomes more crucial to see how models are performing. This tool compares HRRR sim radar to the observed radar. As you can see, there are some noticible differences already in placement and intensity of precip.http://www.jmmweather.com/radar_comparison.html Please message me with any suggestions as this is a work in progress.This is great! So radar is a good 40-50 miles north of the last hrrr run, yea? Does that tell us the models keeping heavy snow south will likely adjust north?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted Sunday at 04:46 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:46 AM 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted Sunday at 04:47 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:47 AM Anyone have the 00Z UKmet kuchera totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted Sunday at 04:48 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:48 AM 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted Sunday at 04:49 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:49 AM Just now, WVclimo said: I forgot how much of a disaster 12z was... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted Sunday at 04:51 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:51 AM One of these models is terribly wrong. Hopefully it’s the UKIE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Sunday at 04:58 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:58 AM 8 minutes ago, WVclimo said: UK was so embarrassingly south, correcting itself it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Sunday at 05:00 AM Share Posted Sunday at 05:00 AM 1 minute ago, nj2va said: UK was so embarrassingly south, correcting itself it seems. Now its only about 50 miles off from the other models. Which isn’t much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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