psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 03:27 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:27 AM 11 minutes ago, TowsonTownT said: Bonus question - does anyone remember if this one went north of the consensus 48 hours out? Don't these always go north? No that storm in 2019 was one of the only examples that didn’t trend north and I got less than I expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Sunday at 03:30 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:30 AM No that storm in 2019 was one of the only examples that didn’t trend north and I got less than I expected. I don’t remember a north shift when we actually needed one. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted Sunday at 03:30 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:30 AM 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Looks like Hrrr is not north enough if I'm understanding it correctly. Yep, looks like it's missing some lighter precip to the north of the main batch too. Something to keep watching as the storm takes shape. 4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Pretty awesome tool @Jmister I might actually have to bookmark this one for future reference during convective season. Might be helpful in gauging ERO updates during the warm season. Been a minute, but hope you’re doing well!! I remember you went to PSU, correct? Thanks! Yep, I was at PSU from 2007-2017 and in doing so I missed some of Philly's best snowstorms haha. I think they had four storms of 20+ inches while State College's best was 14"...go figure Congrats Mid Atlantic crew, this looks to be a solid storm for you! 12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 03:33 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:33 AM 2 minutes ago, Ji said: I don’t remember a north shift when we actually needed one. Didn’t Jan 2022 shift north enough to get DC good when it looked like it might fringe them? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted Sunday at 03:35 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:35 AM i don't think it was necessarily a north shift, but the goods spread north in Jan 2016 to allow us in NYC to cash in (into what is still NYC's biggest storm on record). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted Sunday at 03:36 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:36 AM 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: No that storm in 2019 was one of the only examples that didn’t trend north and I got less than I expected. Yeah that one hit a frickin' wall and stayed there....I guess that was more of an exception to the rule! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Sunday at 03:37 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 03:37 AM Aiight. Let's get into it. GFS running. Can't see any drastic jumps, so expectations for me are in check. Didn't mind the last run 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted Sunday at 03:38 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:38 AM 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Didn’t Jan 2022 shift north enough to get DC good when it looked like it might fringe them? I believe that Jan 3rd one was fairly steady on the central VA jackpot, but expanded precip north leading up to go time. The system juiced up in general the last few model cycles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Sunday at 03:38 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:38 AM Didn’t Jan 2022 shift north enough to get DC good when it looked like it might fringe them?That didn’t help either of us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Sunday at 03:41 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:41 AM More push on the NW side 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Sunday at 03:42 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 03:42 AM Nothing notable change wise through 0z MON (24hr) 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 03:43 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:43 AM Just now, Ji said: That didn’t help either of us Because we needed too much. They usually trend some, 30 miles maybe and more importantly they usually under do the qpf along the northern fringe so between a small shift north and a 25% increase in qpf suddenly a place expecting 3” gets 6” or 8”. But if we need some 75 mile shift the last 24 hours that’s unlikely. I don’t mind sitting around the .3 qpf area going into the final 24 hours. But being on the outside looking in or on the fringe of any precip at all usually isn’t good. Tonight’s euro is big. It’s been bouncing a bit. If it holds or improves on the 18z run I feel good about higher totals all the way to PA. If it looks like the icon or rgem I might start to worry some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Sunday at 03:44 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:44 AM Nothing notable change wise through 0z MON (24hr)I have lost track. Was the GFS good or bad at 18z 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Sunday at 03:45 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 03:45 AM Out to 30. No notable changes at H5 or SFC. 36...northern extent of precip just slightly further south. Nothing panicky worthy for north folks. TEmps are cold and no issue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Sunday at 03:45 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:45 AM 1 minute ago, Ji said: I have lost track. Was the GFS good or bad at 18z It gave you like 8-9” at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Sunday at 03:46 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 03:46 AM 1 minute ago, Ji said: I have lost track. Was the GFS good or bad at 18z Shit, same. It's all starting to blend together for me. I'm taking a break after the Euro and skipping 6z 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Sunday at 03:46 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 03:46 AM It's a hold. Just every so slightly colder. All kinda noise level 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Sunday at 03:47 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:47 AM DC still snow at 12z Monday. Mixing down by EZF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Sunday at 03:47 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:47 AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Sunday at 03:48 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 03:48 AM At 48...waiting so if we get some ULL love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Sunday at 03:50 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 03:50 AM Get some light ULL love. South of EZF did lose a bit of snow this run. Drier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Sunday at 03:51 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:51 AM WB 0Z GFS at 10pm Monday 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Sunday at 03:51 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 03:51 AM Look...it's going to snow. Anywhere from 1" to 12" across the area. 1 1 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted Sunday at 03:52 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:52 AM Good run. Mostly noise level adjustments. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted Sunday at 03:53 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:53 AM 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted Sunday at 03:53 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:53 AM 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Look...it's going to snow. Anywhere from 1" to 12" across the area. I can see why normal people hate meteorologists 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Sunday at 03:54 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:54 AM Gfs will always be the driest model 24 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted Sunday at 03:54 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:54 AM 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: No that storm in 2019 was one of the only examples that didn’t trend north and I got less than I expected. it actually did trend north for those in the dc beltway though. lwx forecast had moco, ffx, hoco and dc getting like 6-8" and we made out with 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Sunday at 03:55 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:55 AM Just now, LP08 said: Good run. Mostly noise level adjustments. We’re locked in for a warning-level event. Even the most south models have DC/VA Beltway 5”+. Upside of 10-12” if EVERYTHING breaks right including no mixing and ULL/coastal love. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Sunday at 03:55 AM Share Posted Sunday at 03:55 AM 24 hrs from the event one of these models going to bust badly lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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