Weather Will Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 We are 30 hours out now, a bonafide chance of an old-fashioned snowy, cold, wintry week! And by January 7 a lot of winter snow forecasts go up in flames already!!!! I must be dreaming!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Went from 6 to 14 in my yard in one run. Volatile.This happens every snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 WRF is also a beaut some model changes gotta happen tonight. Real time data out west should get into these runs and fix the spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 9 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said: Does this storm have an analog? jan 12 2019 gives me the closest vibes to this. diff setup though, lowkey better rates overall but a worse coastal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Now let’s see if we can coax the Ukie and RGEM north. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 apart from the few outliers, my backyard has consistently been 10-12”. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Ji said: This happens every snowstorm LOL Not less than 30 hours from game time. And you run a weather page... 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 9 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Stupid question.. which is more accurate.. 3k. Or 12k nam? The 3k is a far superior model. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: We are 30 hours out now, a bonafide chance of an old-fashioned snowy, cold, wintry week! And by January 7 a lot of winter snow forecasts go up in flames already!!!! I must be dreaming!!!! I went 22/18/21 I think, so I'm rooting against myself for a hit up there lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: That was an over-performer for sure in the metro DC area...though I don't think it was as good for areas up toward BWI and north, whereas this one looks better relatively speaking. I also recall LWX went 8-12" in the metro DC area which at first seemed really aggressive but ended up spot-on. No it was not...we don't talk about 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Deck Pic said: You're in an excellent spot for this one. LWX isn’t sure. and when they play catch-up we . i need to look over the 500 mb maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 LOL Not less than 30 hours from game time. And you run a weather page...Don’t know. I have seen the Nam make wild swings before close to game time. I predicted this would happen today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: No it was not...we don't talk about 2019 Yeah that's kind of what I remember from that event in 2019. Sorry to bring up "bad" memories on that...I guess it's like the Voldemort storm from B**ing D*y 2010 (the Storm Which Shall Not Be Named!). But this event for Monday, looks a lot better for areas up to the north as well, compared to that 2019 storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Ji said: Don’t know. I have seen the Nam make wild swings before close to game time. I predicted this would happen today I'd be cautiously optimistic with the NAM. It's exciting to look at, but we know the NAM has burned us plenty of times. If the GFS/Euro combo confirms, then yeah...I can believe over 6 for us 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmvpete Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, high risk said: The 3k is a far superior model. The 3kmNAM cross-section early Monday morning is a textbook FGEN/isentropic ascent setup. Also depicts the warm nose very well. 27 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, stormtracker said: I'd be cautiously optimistic with the NAM. It's exciting to look at, but we know the NAM has burned us plenty of times. If the GFS/Euro combo confirms, then yeah...I can believe over 6 for us I'm mostly glad to see the more expansive precip shield, to be honest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 JV done. Varsity is up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I'd be cautiously optimistic with the NAM. It's exciting to look at, but we know the NAM has burned us plenty of times. If the GFS/Euro combo confirms, then yeah...I can believe over 6 for usTotally get it. We used to joke that Nam becomes useful 6 hours after the storm startsThis is for the Nam 12k that’s getting retired Encouraged that the nam3k is on board because it’s usually a dr no model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Don’t know. I have seen the Nam make wild swings before close to game time. I predicted this would happen today have we all forgotten the NAM is basically worthless outside of 36 hours? and really only is worth serious consideration under 24? I feel like I'm going crazy over here. I thought that was an unwavering truth known to this board. Especially older heads 3 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just looking at sfc 0z icon pretty much identical to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 GFS HRRR RAP NAM3K/12K WRF all on board for a forum wide warning event. Let’s reel in the CMC ICON and Euro tonight. Many of the models on our side are inferior to the varsity models outside of the GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, Interstate said: JV done. Varsity is up Not quite. The JV ICON is still south, not that we will put any weight on that. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, MN Transplant said: Not quite. The JV ICON is still south, not that we will put any weight on that. Yep. Not gonna make many friends with that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 RGEM still looks to remain in the southern camp too, through H36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 RGEM still just wants to give us virga and pixie dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Yep. Not gonna make many friends with that run. And yet, it is still 0.5” precip all frozen in DC. I’ll take that as the floor. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goodwidp Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Sterling's latest maps (as of 9:16 pm): https://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter Expected: High end: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 RGEM gives RIC 10”+ of snow vs 3k NAM 2”. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 7 minutes ago, wxmvpete said: The 3kmNAM cross-section early Monday morning is a textbook FGEN/isentropic ascent setup. Also depicts the warm nose very well. This is pretty much textbook for a cross-section of a WAA thump around here. Very strong FGEN signature during a deep moist layer as well. Verbatim, this is how you get 1-2"/hr for several hrs over a large area. Considering the strength of the LLJ at 85H and the RER dynamics at play with the jet streak to our north, there should be a good amount of moisture being advected northeastward ahead of the mean trough. A small window of lighter precip between the primary WAA pattern and the falling heights under the trough traversing eastward out of KY is likely, but that's the $1 million question what will transpire in the 5H progression as they moves south of us. If that can remain closed or at least move through at a slight neutral to negative tilt....then all bets are off on the potential within a maturing CCB. Jury still out there, but beginning to see some convergence on the initial stage of the event. I'm sure the mix line will be a bit north progged, but you never know. The NAM Nest outcome was fairly reasonable in my eyes given the variables at hand. The northern edge will likely sharpen and there will be a 100 mile swath of some significant snowfall across our area. It's just a matter of the latitudinal "goal posts" of where that will be. Fun times!! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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