Ji Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Thanks bro. We got nammed 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Stupid question.. which is more accurate.. 3k. Or 12k nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: People here are going to sweat the dry slot. But this 500mb passage is pretty sick. It will be like a 4 hour lull maybe. HODL Noon on monday the ull is still in KY We accumulate snow, lightly, at every time step until midnight thanks to the influence of the 500 low. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: People here are going to sweat the dry slot. But this 500mb passage is pretty sick. It will be like a 4 hour lull maybe. HODL Noon on monday the ull is still in KY Snow weenie dreams are made of things like this. Just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Always trusted your insight so any thoughts on ground truth? This seems like a reasonable outcome to you? I'm sticking with the euro at least through tonight. This storm looks pretty exciting in terms of the upside. But we get screwed a lot lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 WB 0Z 3K NAM kuchera, pretty amazing... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 WB 0Z 3K NAM kuchera, pretty amazing...Wow. If the GFS looks anything like this … woof . 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said: Does this storm have an analog? Jan 2019 seems the closest, at least that I can think of. https://www.stmweather.com/blog/current-events/winter-storm-january-11-13-2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Fv3 bam 1 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Thanks bro. We got nammed Nice to see it capitulate and shift towards the global models. Now hopefully it holds. 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Ephesians2 said: Jan 2019 seems the closest, at least that I can think of. That was an over-performer for sure in the metro DC area...though I don't think it was as good for areas up toward BWI and north, whereas this one looks better relatively speaking. I also recall LWX went 8-12" in the metro DC area which at first seemed really aggressive but ended up spot-on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 21 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: The 3k is beautiful...might have to frame this kuch Went from 6 to 14 in my yard in one run. Volatile. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 We are 30 hours out now, a bonafide chance of an old-fashioned snowy, cold, wintry week! And by January 7 a lot of winter snow forecasts go up in flames already!!!! I must be dreaming!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Went from 6 to 14 in my yard in one run. Volatile.This happens every snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 WRF is also a beaut some model changes gotta happen tonight. Real time data out west should get into these runs and fix the spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 9 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said: Does this storm have an analog? jan 12 2019 gives me the closest vibes to this. diff setup though, lowkey better rates overall but a worse coastal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Now let’s see if we can coax the Ukie and RGEM north. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 apart from the few outliers, my backyard has consistently been 10-12”. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Ji said: This happens every snowstorm LOL Not less than 30 hours from game time. And you run a weather page... 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 9 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Stupid question.. which is more accurate.. 3k. Or 12k nam? The 3k is a far superior model. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Wxtrix said: apart from the few outliers, my backyard has consistently been 10-12”. You're in an excellent spot for this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: We are 30 hours out now, a bonafide chance of an old-fashioned snowy, cold, wintry week! And by January 7 a lot of winter snow forecasts go up in flames already!!!! I must be dreaming!!!! I went 22/18/21 I think, so I'm rooting against myself for a hit up there lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: That was an over-performer for sure in the metro DC area...though I don't think it was as good for areas up toward BWI and north, whereas this one looks better relatively speaking. I also recall LWX went 8-12" in the metro DC area which at first seemed really aggressive but ended up spot-on. No it was not...we don't talk about 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, Deck Pic said: You're in an excellent spot for this one. LWX isn’t sure. and when they play catch-up we . i need to look over the 500 mb maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 LOL Not less than 30 hours from game time. And you run a weather page...Don’t know. I have seen the Nam make wild swings before close to game time. I predicted this would happen today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: No it was not...we don't talk about 2019 Yeah that's kind of what I remember from that event in 2019. Sorry to bring up "bad" memories on that...I guess it's like the Voldemort storm from B**ing D*y 2010 (the Storm Which Shall Not Be Named!). But this event for Monday, looks a lot better for areas up to the north as well, compared to that 2019 storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Ji said: Don’t know. I have seen the Nam make wild swings before close to game time. I predicted this would happen today I'd be cautiously optimistic with the NAM. It's exciting to look at, but we know the NAM has burned us plenty of times. If the GFS/Euro combo confirms, then yeah...I can believe over 6 for us 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmvpete Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, high risk said: The 3k is a far superior model. The 3kmNAM cross-section early Monday morning is a textbook FGEN/isentropic ascent setup. Also depicts the warm nose very well. 27 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, stormtracker said: I'd be cautiously optimistic with the NAM. It's exciting to look at, but we know the NAM has burned us plenty of times. If the GFS/Euro combo confirms, then yeah...I can believe over 6 for us I'm mostly glad to see the more expansive precip shield, to be honest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 JV done. Varsity is up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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