Deck Pic Posted Sunday at 02:22 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:22 AM 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Feeling a lot better at staving off a prolonged period of sleet. NAM was the only one perilously close. Now watch the other models start pinging DC.... 3k gets us close. It would at least imply maybe some brief mixing, but yeah mostly cold smoke I havent looked at details. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Sunday at 02:23 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:23 AM Oooo and more 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Sunday at 02:23 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:23 AM Just now, LP08 said: 3k still going at 0z Tuesday with the coastal forming. Can't wait for the stuff over Ohio if it can make it to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Sunday at 02:23 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:23 AM 1 minute ago, bncho said: @Terpeastis thinking about changing his forecast. Not so fast bro, I’ll see if these NAM and HRRR runs hold through tomorrow 12z then I’ll reassess for a final call tomorrow night 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted Sunday at 02:24 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:24 AM 7 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: These comparisons are not really showing any significant shifts at all IMHO. Especially the Euro. It hasnt really changed at all in the last 3 days. Teacher, the Science Teacher just copied my homework. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted Sunday at 02:24 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:24 AM 43 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: You know, I'm not the smartest person in this thread weather-wise, so someone explain to me how I (and anyone S to SW) of the 540 line running from Dover to Martinsburg to Pittsburgh is shown as all snow with that low placement in north-central WV and a non-dominating high over the northeast to keep CAD going? I know 540 isn't everything, but it is something. I won't complain if it happens, just don't understand what it is seeing. Late to reply to this, but typically if a primary that strong reaches Clarksburg, I mix here. And that’s with a high reinforcing the wedge. But this is a very deep, cold air mass and the storm is driving into it almost as soon as it settles in. Stiff northwest winds will still be filtering in during the day tomorrow with precip arriving not long after, so I’m hoping this time it works. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Sunday at 02:25 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 02:25 AM 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 3k gets us close. It would at least imply maybe some brief mixing, but yeah mostly cold smoke I havent looked at details. I mean, yeah..don't care what any of them say, we're gonna sleet. I'm more worried about the length of time we do 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Sunday at 02:26 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:26 AM Crushed 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted Sunday at 02:26 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:26 AM 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Not so fast bro, I’ll see if these NAM and HRRR runs hold through tomorrow 12z then I’ll reassess for a final call tomorrow night Looks like a long duration event. If you like snow falling this ones for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Sunday at 02:26 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:26 AM This run is ridiculous. All of us double digits with another couple hours of backside love left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted Sunday at 02:26 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:26 AM 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: 3k gets us close. It would at least imply maybe some brief mixing, but yeah mostly cold smoke I havent looked at details. Always trusted your insight so any thoughts on ground truth? This seems like a reasonable outcome to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Sunday at 02:27 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:27 AM Anyone have a qpf map? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Sunday at 02:27 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:27 AM Just now, Ji said: Anyone have a qpf map? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted Sunday at 02:28 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:28 AM 3k a foot + with coastal still ongoing lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Sunday at 02:28 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:28 AM Still snowing: 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted Sunday at 02:28 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:28 AM 3k is basically a foot for all of us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted Sunday at 02:28 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:28 AM 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Feeling a lot better at staving off a prolonged period of sleet. NAM was the only one perilously close. Now watch the other models start pinging DC.... Yup. This definitely makes me more comfortable going in. We’ve all seen the NAM pull some shit on us in the past, but it’s just good to see it start to at least think about joining the general consensus. Will the storm end like this verbatim? Not a chance, but unless the globals reverse course tonight, this is going to make my sleep that much sweeter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted Sunday at 02:28 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:28 AM 2 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: Crushed Is that the 3km or 12km NAM? (or are they both similar...too lazy to go look myself if someone already has these!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Sunday at 02:30 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:30 AM Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Is that the 3km or 12km NAM? (or are they both similar...too lazy to go look myself if someone already has these!) That’s 12k. this is 3k (not done snowing yet) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Sunday at 02:30 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:30 AM 3k says the lead band that enters the area from 3-6z is driven by the 700mb fgen. Then it moves north and weakens as the 850mb fgen arrives 12-15z over mostly the same area. Hence you don’t get two areas with local maxima in snow totals but one broad swath. 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted Sunday at 02:30 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:30 AM People here are going to sweat the dry slot. But this 500mb passage is pretty sick. It will be like a 4 hour lull maybe. HODL Noon on monday the ull is still in KY 9 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted Sunday at 02:31 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:31 AM Just now, Terpeast said: That’s 12k. this is 3k (not done snowing yet) Rare for the 3k to be better. 12k screws me hard. Just me no one else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted Sunday at 02:31 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:31 AM 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: That’s 12k. this is 3k (not done snowing yet) OK, great...thanks! Wow...that's unreal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Sunday at 02:32 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:32 AM 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: That’s 12k. this is 3k (not done snowing yet) Whoa. And 3k has much less wet bias than 12k… if tomorrows 12z run is similar…ooohhh baby. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Sunday at 02:32 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:32 AM Finally done. It's a footer for most of us. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted Sunday at 02:32 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:32 AM I think we have a couple more south shifts coming for the NAM 5 1 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted Sunday at 02:32 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:32 AM 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted Sunday at 02:32 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:32 AM NAM'D 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted Sunday at 02:32 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:32 AM Why not? LFG 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted Sunday at 02:32 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:32 AM Does this storm have an analog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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