clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 This run is ridiculous. All of us double digits with another couple hours of backside love left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:22 AM, Deck Pic said: 3k gets us close. It would at least imply maybe some brief mixing, but yeah mostly cold smoke I havent looked at details. Expand Always trusted your insight so any thoughts on ground truth? This seems like a reasonable outcome to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Anyone have a qpf map? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:27 AM, Ji said: Anyone have a qpf map? Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3k a foot + with coastal still ongoing lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Still snowing: 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3k is basically a foot for all of us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:20 AM, stormtracker said: Feeling a lot better at staving off a prolonged period of sleet. NAM was the only one perilously close. Now watch the other models start pinging DC.... Expand Yup. This definitely makes me more comfortable going in. We’ve all seen the NAM pull some shit on us in the past, but it’s just good to see it start to at least think about joining the general consensus. Will the storm end like this verbatim? Not a chance, but unless the globals reverse course tonight, this is going to make my sleep that much sweeter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:26 AM, Ravens94 said: Crushed Expand Is that the 3km or 12km NAM? (or are they both similar...too lazy to go look myself if someone already has these!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:28 AM, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Is that the 3km or 12km NAM? (or are they both similar...too lazy to go look myself if someone already has these!) Expand That’s 12k. this is 3k (not done snowing yet) 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3k says the lead band that enters the area from 3-6z is driven by the 700mb fgen. Then it moves north and weakens as the 850mb fgen arrives 12-15z over mostly the same area. Hence you don’t get two areas with local maxima in snow totals but one broad swath. 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:30 AM, Terpeast said: That’s 12k. this is 3k (not done snowing yet) Expand Rare for the 3k to be better. 12k screws me hard. Just me no one else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:30 AM, Terpeast said: That’s 12k. this is 3k (not done snowing yet) Expand OK, great...thanks! Wow...that's unreal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:30 AM, Terpeast said: That’s 12k. this is 3k (not done snowing yet) Expand Whoa. And 3k has much less wet bias than 12k… if tomorrows 12z run is similar…ooohhh baby. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Finally done. It's a footer for most of us. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I think we have a couple more south shifts coming for the NAM 5 1 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 NAM'D 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Does this storm have an analog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:27 AM, Ravens94 said: Thanks bro. We got nammed 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Stupid question.. which is more accurate.. 3k. Or 12k nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:30 AM, Deck Pic said: People here are going to sweat the dry slot. But this 500mb passage is pretty sick. It will be like a 4 hour lull maybe. HODL Noon on monday the ull is still in KY Expand We accumulate snow, lightly, at every time step until midnight thanks to the influence of the 500 low. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:30 AM, Deck Pic said: People here are going to sweat the dry slot. But this 500mb passage is pretty sick. It will be like a 4 hour lull maybe. HODL Noon on monday the ull is still in KY Expand Snow weenie dreams are made of things like this. Just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 WB 0Z 3K NAM kuchera, pretty amazing... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:35 AM, Weather Will said: WB 0Z 3K NAM kuchera, pretty amazing...Wow. If the GFS looks anything like this … woof . 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:32 AM, Jersey Andrew said: Does this storm have an analog? Expand Jan 2019 seems the closest, at least that I can think of. https://www.stmweather.com/blog/current-events/winter-storm-january-11-13-2019 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Fv3 bam 1 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:33 AM, Ji said: Thanks bro. We got nammed Expand Nice to see it capitulate and shift towards the global models. Now hopefully it holds. 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:37 AM, Ephesians2 said: Jan 2019 seems the closest, at least that I can think of. Expand That was an over-performer for sure in the metro DC area...though I don't think it was as good for areas up toward BWI and north, whereas this one looks better relatively speaking. I also recall LWX went 8-12" in the metro DC area which at first seemed really aggressive but ended up spot-on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:17 AM, Deck Pic said: The 3k is beautiful...might have to frame this kuch Expand Went from 6 to 14 in my yard in one run. Volatile. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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