snjókoma Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 09z - 15z is a beatdown for the immediate DC area -- 0.5-0.6" QPF and all snow. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3K is a mauling out here. 8 inches in 7 hours. 5 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/4/2025 at 11:36 PM, nj2va said: Expand On 1/4/2025 at 11:59 PM, mitchnick said: Eps Expand On 1/5/2025 at 12:07 AM, nj2va said: Last four runs of the NBM. 6” line continuing to tick south towards EZF. Expand These comparisons are not really showing any significant shifts at all IMHO. Especially the Euro. It hasnt really changed at all in the last 3 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:15 AM, snjókoma said: 09z - 15z is a beatdown for the immediate DC area -- 0.5-0.6" QPF and all snow. Expand 2016 Blizzard snow rates. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Finally looking more like the other models with the precip extent into VA. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:15 AM, clskinsfan said: 3K is a mauling out here. 8 inches in 7 hours. Yessir. NOVA Central md & dc beat down confirmed. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Precip shield more robust for everyone here 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:15 AM, Deck Pic said: total capitulation. NAM stays relegated Expand Yeah. Can't say I'm mad at this run. The capitulation confirms that 12k NAM is some shit, lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 The wraparound stuff should still be decent (if not better) than the 18z runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I'm expecting some big shifts tonight. Buckle up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Nams are a win for basically all. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:16 AM, Terpeast said: Precip shield more robust for everyone here Expand That's what I was hoping for...get rid of that ugly, huge dry slot area that had been showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:16 AM, bncho said: 2016 Blizzard snow rates. Expand No. The 2016 Blizzard featured 3 inch per hour rates for 3 hours IMBY. That 0.5-0.6" QP in 6 hours is 1 inch per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:16 AM, Terpeast said: Precip shield more robust for everyone here Expand The nam always finds a way to make up for the further south track. It will never let us down. Until the day of the event of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 Feeling a lot better at staving off a prolonged period of sleet. NAM was the only one perilously close. Now watch the other models start pinging DC.... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:17 AM, SnowenOutThere said: The wraparound stuff should still be decent (if not better) than the 18z runs Expand Its looking gorgeous. Wow. What a run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:18 AM, MDScienceTeacher said: No. The 2016 Blizzard featured 3 inch per hour rates for 3 hours IMBY. That 0.5-0.6" QP in 6 hours is 1 inch per hour. Expand Sorry, I misread the thing. For some reason my dumbass saw "in 3 hours" instead of "in 6 hours" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Still snowing at 18z per NAM 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 H5 low closes off again 12 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 @Terpeastis thinking about changing his forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3k still going at 0z Tuesday with the coastal forming. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Oooo and more 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:22 AM, LP08 said: 3k still going at 0z Tuesday with the coastal forming. Expand Can't wait for the stuff over Ohio if it can make it to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:20 AM, bncho said: @Terpeastis thinking about changing his forecast. Expand Not so fast bro, I’ll see if these NAM and HRRR runs hold through tomorrow 12z then I’ll reassess for a final call tomorrow night 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:15 AM, MDScienceTeacher said: These comparisons are not really showing any significant shifts at all IMHO. Especially the Euro. It hasnt really changed at all in the last 3 days. Expand Teacher, the Science Teacher just copied my homework. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 1:44 AM, wxdude64 said: You know, I'm not the smartest person in this thread weather-wise, so someone explain to me how I (and anyone S to SW) of the 540 line running from Dover to Martinsburg to Pittsburgh is shown as all snow with that low placement in north-central WV and a non-dominating high over the northeast to keep CAD going? I know 540 isn't everything, but it is something. I won't complain if it happens, just don't understand what it is seeing. Expand Late to reply to this, but typically if a primary that strong reaches Clarksburg, I mix here. And that’s with a high reinforcing the wedge. But this is a very deep, cold air mass and the storm is driving into it almost as soon as it settles in. Stiff northwest winds will still be filtering in during the day tomorrow with precip arriving not long after, so I’m hoping this time it works. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:22 AM, Deck Pic said: 3k gets us close. It would at least imply maybe some brief mixing, but yeah mostly cold smoke I havent looked at details. Expand I mean, yeah..don't care what any of them say, we're gonna sleet. I'm more worried about the length of time we do 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Crushed 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:23 AM, Terpeast said: Not so fast bro, I’ll see if these NAM and HRRR runs hold through tomorrow 12z then I’ll reassess for a final call tomorrow night Expand Looks like a long duration event. If you like snow falling this ones for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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