Deck Pic Posted Sunday at 01:58 AM Share Posted Sunday at 01:58 AM 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I thought HRRR after a certain point was pretty useless? Am I wrong here? Seen so many posts about it. we're model worshipping. NAM is running now. 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Sunday at 01:59 AM Share Posted Sunday at 01:59 AM 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Were they expecting to start with freezing rain and then later change over to snow? Globals seemed to have them in all snow or snow-mix-snow as Storm developed. But close to the line. Nam and hrrr had most mixing. But @csnavywx made a good point about the subsaturated column. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted Sunday at 01:59 AM Share Posted Sunday at 01:59 AM Nam trended south through 21hrs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Sunday at 02:00 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:00 AM NAM seems slightly south with the primary, but its extremely early in its run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Sunday at 02:01 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:01 AM 3 minutes ago, Amped said: Nam trended south through 21hrs Yep more confluence. Look at the 534 line. Bounced back north at 24 though. So who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted Sunday at 02:02 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:02 AM 12 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Maybe the RAP was on to something. How accurate is the HRRR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted Sunday at 02:03 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:03 AM Just now, winter_warlock said: How accurate is the HRRR? I don't know if this is sarcastic or not, so I'm going to answer and say that, at this range, probably not at all. But it's very pretty to look at. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted Sunday at 02:03 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:03 AM 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: How accurate is the HRRR? It's a short term model and we're using it at the end of it's range. Any time you're in the latter panels of a model run, the accuracy decreases. so...not very 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted Sunday at 02:05 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:05 AM Just now, StormyClearweather said: I don't know if this is sarcastic or not, so I'm going to answer and say that, at this range, probably not at all. But it's very pretty to look at. I thought I heard some time back (not sure if it's accurate) that the HRRR is really best for summertime convection more than this type of scenario (synoptically-driven winter events, etc.). But yeah, still nice to look at all the same! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Sunday at 02:05 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 02:05 AM NAM seems a bit quicker...and cooler? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Sunday at 02:05 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:05 AM Little more confluence but she's a beaut at 500 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Sunday at 02:05 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:05 AM Nam def will be south, may be not great for the northern crew which has been hugging it but still early in its run. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted Sunday at 02:06 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:06 AM 8 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Thanks for the cautionary tale. We only average 1.5" of snow so this is new for us, np at all ive been so burned by hrrr in the past I dont even watch it any more. I watch real time radars and see the trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Sunday at 02:06 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:06 AM Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Nam def will be south, may be not great for the northern crew which has been hugging it but still early in its run. 18z top 0z precip through hour 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Sunday at 02:06 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 02:06 AM NAM, colder...quicker so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Sunday at 02:07 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 02:07 AM I'm not going to try to predict what the model will do like the others, but the only thing for sure is it's a bit quicker. Gonna let the other panels run first 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted Sunday at 02:07 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:07 AM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Sunday at 02:08 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 02:08 AM Just now, DDweatherman said: It’s less than a full county south with surface differences through 27. If it goes more that way soon, then sure but as of now negligible. Yeah, I'm waiting. It does seem a touch cooler tho. Can't for sure say a south trend yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Sunday at 02:09 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 02:09 AM Appears wetter to me so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted Sunday at 02:09 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:09 AM Just now, stormtracker said: Appears wetter to me so far. Agreed thru 33 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Sunday at 02:10 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 02:10 AM I think people are looking at the northern extent of the precip vs 18z. It is not as far north, but not sure that means the storm moved south 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Sunday at 02:10 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:10 AM 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, I'm waiting. It does seem a touch cooler tho. Can't for sure say a south trend yet Definitely cooler for dc. Mod/heavy snow at 12z Monday on 00z run vs sleet on 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Sunday at 02:11 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:11 AM Larger precip field east of the mountains. Similar to the HRRR. Fighting the good fight against sleet though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted Sunday at 02:11 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:11 AM Thermals do appear cooler this NAM run. Will check 3k too edit: 3k thermals also a touch cooler at hrs 30-32 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted Sunday at 02:11 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:11 AM NOVA DC Central MD smack down coming? Me thinks so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted Sunday at 02:12 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 02:12 AM Again..being careful here..but it does appear to be a bit south of 18z. Not saying how much. Thermals appear to be a bit cooler 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted Sunday at 02:12 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:12 AM Just now, nj2va said: Definitely cooler for dc. Mod/heavy snow at 12z Monday on 00z run vs sleet on 18z. Yeah, that’s the big takeaway. For the main slug of moisture, the NAM has caved for DC. Still problematic for Fredericksburg. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted Sunday at 02:12 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:12 AM HRRR and NAM find a compromise. This is the greatest business deal ever! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted Sunday at 02:12 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:12 AM Just now, Terpeast said: Thermals do appear cooler this NAM run. Will check 3k too It gets rid of the sleet that has been plaguing NOVA at 12z Monday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted Sunday at 02:12 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:12 AM DC hammered at 36. Its gonna be a big run north of 50. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts