winter_warlock Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 1:49 AM, StormyClearweather said: Maybe the RAP was on to something. Expand How accurate is the HRRR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:02 AM, winter_warlock said: How accurate is the HRRR? Expand I don't know if this is sarcastic or not, so I'm going to answer and say that, at this range, probably not at all. But it's very pretty to look at. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:03 AM, StormyClearweather said: I don't know if this is sarcastic or not, so I'm going to answer and say that, at this range, probably not at all. But it's very pretty to look at. Expand I thought I heard some time back (not sure if it's accurate) that the HRRR is really best for summertime convection more than this type of scenario (synoptically-driven winter events, etc.). But yeah, still nice to look at all the same! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 NAM seems a bit quicker...and cooler? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Little more confluence but she's a beaut at 500 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Nam def will be south, may be not great for the northern crew which has been hugging it but still early in its run. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 1:57 AM, Deck Pic said: Thanks for the cautionary tale. We only average 1.5" of snow so this is new for us, Expand np at all ive been so burned by hrrr in the past I dont even watch it any more. I watch real time radars and see the trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:05 AM, SnowenOutThere said: Nam def will be south, may be not great for the northern crew which has been hugging it but still early in its run. Expand 18z top 0z precip through hour 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 NAM, colder...quicker so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 I'm not going to try to predict what the model will do like the others, but the only thing for sure is it's a bit quicker. Gonna let the other panels run first 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:07 AM, DDweatherman said: It’s less than a full county south with surface differences through 27. If it goes more that way soon, then sure but as of now negligible. Expand Yeah, I'm waiting. It does seem a touch cooler tho. Can't for sure say a south trend yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 Appears wetter to me so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:09 AM, stormtracker said: Appears wetter to me so far. Expand Agreed thru 33 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 I think people are looking at the northern extent of the precip vs 18z. It is not as far north, but not sure that means the storm moved south 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:08 AM, stormtracker said: Yeah, I'm waiting. It does seem a touch cooler tho. Can't for sure say a south trend yet Expand Definitely cooler for dc. Mod/heavy snow at 12z Monday on 00z run vs sleet on 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Larger precip field east of the mountains. Similar to the HRRR. Fighting the good fight against sleet though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Thermals do appear cooler this NAM run. Will check 3k too edit: 3k thermals also a touch cooler at hrs 30-32 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 NOVA DC Central MD smack down coming? Me thinks so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 Again..being careful here..but it does appear to be a bit south of 18z. Not saying how much. Thermals appear to be a bit cooler 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:10 AM, nj2va said: Definitely cooler for dc. Mod/heavy snow at 12z Monday on 00z run vs sleet on 18z. Expand Yeah, that’s the big takeaway. For the main slug of moisture, the NAM has caved for DC. Still problematic for Fredericksburg. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 HRRR and NAM find a compromise. This is the greatest business deal ever! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 1/5/2025 at 2:11 AM, Terpeast said: Thermals do appear cooler this NAM run. Will check 3k too Expand It gets rid of the sleet that has been plaguing NOVA at 12z Monday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 DC hammered at 36. Its gonna be a big run north of 50. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3k is a beauty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 NAM should be a good run for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 So instead of saying it's souther...I will say with confidence that the axis of HEAVY stuff is more south 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 So far 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 Yeah, thermals are def better down this way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 DC beat down at 36. Manages to stave the sleet off and we all know places that manage to stay just north of the mix line get hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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