psuhoffman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Vort is a tick south and faster through 16 on the HRRR this run. Lets see where it goes from here. By 18 hours it’s already diverged significantly from the “south” camp like the uk and rgem. Someone’s gonna cave very soon because the error is very early on. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 HRRR more north with the shield so far vs 18z. Snow approaching the lakes now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Less confluence vs 18z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Incoming 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Oh yeah. It is coming north. I am comparing to 12Z by the way. Dont know what any other HRRR run has done since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, clskinsfan said: Oh yeah. It is coming north. I am comparing to 12Z by the way. Dont know what any other HRRR run has done since then. North from 18z also 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 WB 0Z HRRR is not going to the Lakes but it is definitely not suppressed. Upper level vortex is north at 11pm Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 It's definitely north this run for sure been going north every run since 6z. Snow touching the lakes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Don’t read a ton into it, but KC has had tons of FZRA. Seems like 12z euro had them straddling snow/fzra line now. 3k NAM had sleet. GFS had snow/sleet. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Don’t read a ton into it, but KC has had tons of FZRA. Seems like 12z euro had them straddling snow/fzra line now. 3k NAM had sleet. GFS had snow/sleet.Good callout. We can parse through 50 models every few hours, but ground truth is also important. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Hit the wall and coming east now. Plenty cold EZF and north. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I’m just using the hrrr and rgem here but you can sub the NAMs FV3 and GFS for the hrrr and the uk and somewhat euro (but it’s coming around some) and it’s the same. This is just 18 hours from now… The error is happening right now as the wave amplifies in the plains after ejecting from the Rockies. By 18 hours the camps have diverged and it’s just dominoes falling from there. The Hrrr, FV3, GFS, NAMs are amplifying the wave significantly more in the next 12-18 hours. That’s the difference. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Crushjob 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 HRRR shows quite the thump. Hopefully its thermals are correct and I turn out to be too conservative DC south 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Absolute beat down shew.. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Strong primary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Don’t read a ton into it, but KC has had tons of FZRA. Seems like 12z euro had them straddling snow/fzra line now. 3k NAM had sleet. GFS had snow/sleet. Wouldn’t more zr mean system more north though? Or just the thermals are different 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Don’t read a ton into it, but KC has had tons of FZRA. Seems like 12z euro had them straddling snow/fzra line now. 3k NAM had sleet. GFS had snow/sleet. looks like they are reporting frz rain and sleet now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Hit the wall and coming east now. Plenty cold EZF and north. What a gorgeous run. No mixing issues even close to DC. EZF flirts for a bit but what a beatdown in the region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Assaulted 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: HRRR shows quite the thump. Hopefully its thermals are correct and I turn out to be too conservative DC south There really is only the NAM that is in the north camp. I’m hoping we get a cave here in the next hour. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Dry slot hits here at 39. But I have 10 inches by then. Nice run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Closed low at 500. If it passes over us, watch out 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Solid 8-12 inches before the dry slot, see if we can get some backend stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Dry slot hits here at 39. But I have 10 inches by then. Nice run. lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Still way more to come from coastal. Should be phenomenal 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Dry slot hits here at 39. But I have 10 inches by then. Nice run. Now this is where I see us mixing, but in the end it shouldn’t matter much because rates are so light then 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Still way more to come from coastal. Should be phenomenal Woof! 11.1 in Baltimore proper before the coastal takes shape. That’d be somethin’ alright. Now that PSU has identified what’s causing these model differences, it’ll be interesting to see how the next 12-18 hours play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 This HRRR run is the realistic best case scenario. Wet and cold for most of us with the front side. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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