nw baltimore wx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, Warm Nose said: It's not just LWX with this storm ... EAX (KC) also working with uncertainty: The overall forecast remains on track, with the only change being a slight increase in snow totals for a corridor roughly 30 miles north and south of US Highway 36 and a slight decrease in snow totals for our southern counties. This has only increased/tightened the already large snowfall gradient that has set up over the Interstate 70 corridor and the KC metro, as snowfall could range from a foot near KCI to only 4" or so across Cass County. I like that it’s an increase north and decrease south! 3 1 2 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We all should start looking west and taking notes to see which of these models are closer to reality Ya I’m hoping central Illinois is getting hammered tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Maybe LWX just going 6-8" for the entire region was the right call, they kept it simple. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Ya I’m hoping central Illinois is getting hammered tomorrow Central KY later also and then have the primary not get much north of VA/NC line and then move due east right along it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 It may seem like way far away and not related, but I'm piling up snow here in very north-central Wyoming and seeing hints that it will hang around longer here in a way that would happen if the energy winding up in the central plains were a little more north compared to some models. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3.7 " 12z 6.7 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 18Z HerpaDerp is south. We might be in trouble. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, clskinsfan said: 18Z HerpaDerp is south. We might be in trouble. Basically just the 3k Nam of Rgem. Looks the same as Rgem. Not worried about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: 18Z HerpaDerp is south. We might be in trouble. It actually shifted a bit north from 12z, it just cut off most of the storm then 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 From a Mt Holly met 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: 18Z HerpaDerp is south. We might be in trouble. Seems like it's GFS/Nam vs the world right now. Really gonna need to see how much give that confluence has. The 0z suite will be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, 87storms said: Seems like it's GFS/Nam vs the world right now. Really gonna need to see how much give that confluence has. The 0z suite will be very interesting. Didn't the ICON bump north a bit too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
konksw Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 FV3 looks great for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 18Z HerpaDerp is south. We might be in trouble. Also watch Iowa. If any qpf makes it like a few counties up then this model is tossed. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Didn't the ICON bump north a bit too? Yes, there’s tons of mixed messages being thrown around in here. The only 18z model that didn’t come north at least some was the RGEM. The GFS was about the same as 12z but was better with qpf on the northern periphery. Euro up to bat shortly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 30 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I’m hoping it’s earlier as I run the QPF desk tonight again. Pretty delicate situation. I will say one of the best areas right now seems to lie between I-70 and Rt50. Almost any solution throws out WSW criteria snowfall, so I’d feel great if you are between that zone. LWX doesn’t, lol, although my updated watch is still calling for warning level snow and possible banding for 10”. i understand of course that i might end up with 3”. but i’ll make pot roast either way so it’ll be a win/win situation. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, konksw said: FV3 looks great for us. Looks good, 10+ wide with a bit more to come on that model. How has this model performed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 Euro running. No huge differences yet. Heights just a tad tiny bit higher in front and confluence a hair more relaxed. Noise level 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 At 36, no substantial changes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Yes, there’s tons of mixed messages being thrown around in here. The only 18z model that didn’t come north at least some was the RGEM. The GFS was about the same as 12z but was better with qpf on the northern periphery. Euro up to bat shortly. I’m running behind schedule (apologies) and heading back out until the 0z, but I’m speaking imby. Dc is in great shape (beautiful spot for this storm), but us northern crew need some help from that secondary max that’s been thrown around as a possibility on “not enough” models so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Euro running. No huge differences yet. Heights just a tad tiny bit higher in front and confluence a hair more relaxed. Noise level Would be a good time to bless us all… watching the vort intensity and when it’s closed/open vs the other varsity models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 Snow at 9z...plenty cold up and downstairs so far. Same at 12z. mod to heavy 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 Entire axis of heavier precip moved just a tad (40 miles) norther 22 1 1 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Entire axis of heavier precip moved just a tad (40 miles) norther And there it is. Models are converging 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, Terpeast said: And there it is. Models are converging We think so. Or has the late game north move commenced? Euro is a noticeable improvement 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, nj2va said: Something to pay attention to within 24 hours on the meso models is the potential for the dual banding to set up…one south and another north like many Mets here have talked about. GFS sort of shows this happening here. brighter blue south of DCA is fronto forcing… north of DCA is likely your overrunning which gfs always has a hard time with. I suppose subsidence could be an issue between bands but that like the other things noted above is now casting stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 EZF special on the Euro still 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, stormtracker said: EZF special on the Euro still i thought you said it moved up 40 miles 4 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 If anyone has a gif of euro total precip from last 3-4 runs, I’d appreciate it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, Ji said: i thought you said it moved up 40 miles That's 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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