stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 Ok, out to 36...seems a tad cooler..precip on the door 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 On 1/4/2025 at 9:24 PM, Newman said: Only looking 36hrs out into the Ohio Valley, we're talking QPF differences of 1-2" in some locations between the HRRR (long-range, I know), the NAM, and the RGEM. The NAM and RGEM being drastically different arises from their depiction of the mid-level vort sliding through, of which the NAM is much more potent and neutrally tilted to allow for a healthy PVA regime, the RGEM is simply flatter and less robust. Looking at H5 trends between the two, it seems they are converging closer together without an all-out "fold" of one model to the other. I suppose we'll see, the Sterling NWS AFD is excellent if you haven't checked it out. Also to note... there are some timing differences to make note of, but not *that* large between these models to expect such huge differences Expand Yeah this is absolutely nuts. This close to gametime, not sure I remember this much divergence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 No huge changes so far...I'm talking surface. Not checking H5 since it lags on SV 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Pivotal has snow breaking out in DC at 3z Monday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 It's def a touch colder. SFC and 850 are a little souther...NOT the storm, just those thermals 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 All in all, doesn't seem to be anything different that jumps out. Little less coastal enhancement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 Anybody else notice any huge differences? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Lovely, waiting for costal now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 On 1/4/2025 at 9:48 PM, stormtracker said: Anybody else notice any huge differences? Expand DC metro is all snow this run... no sleet 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 On 1/4/2025 at 9:48 PM, stormtracker said: Anybody else notice any huge differences? Expand I see the Low quite a bit south compared to 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 On 1/4/2025 at 9:48 PM, stormtracker said: Anybody else notice any huge differences? Expand More expansive accumulation south, per snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 There's some backside love at 57hr. Nothing too heavy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 On 1/4/2025 at 9:46 PM, stormtracker said: All in all, doesn't seem to be anything different that jumps out. Little less coastal enhancement Expand The vort weakens more than the 12z run which probably explains why its both colder and worse with the coastal. Result is a smidge colder and an asshair drier (for around DC at least) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 On 1/4/2025 at 9:48 PM, stormtracker said: Anybody else notice any huge differences? Expand Weird qpf orientation it seems. Track of storm is similar. Should probably be juicier than shown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 On 1/4/2025 at 9:48 PM, yoda said: DC metro is all snow this run... no sleet Expand On 1/4/2025 at 9:49 PM, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I see the Low quite a bit south compared to 6Z. Expand On 1/4/2025 at 9:49 PM, LP08 said: More expansive accumulation south, per snow maps Expand Cool. I'll just wait for the WB snow maps. F SV 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 SoMD cleans up at the end, I'll allow it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Coastal should be done by now 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 On 1/4/2025 at 9:48 PM, stormtracker said: Anybody else notice any huge differences? Expand Colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I70 gets dryslotted a bit this run. More snow near the MD line and over the DC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Sold 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 This is pretty.much all of it. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 On 1/4/2025 at 9:51 PM, Amped said: I70 gets dryslotted a bit this run. More snow near the MD line and over the DC metro. Expand Perhaps a little betwixt the 850 and and 700mb lift? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 On 1/4/2025 at 9:49 PM, SnowenOutThere said: The vort weakens more than the 12z run which probably explains why its both colder and worse with the coastal. Result is a smidge colder and an asshair drier (for around DC at least) Expand This right here... You can see it on the H5 at H48 on the 18z... on the 12z it is still closed off... but no earth shattering changes... will be interesting to see the 18z Euro and the 0z suite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 On 1/4/2025 at 9:51 PM, Amped said: I70 gets dryslotted a bit this run. More snow near the MD line and over the DC metro. Expand Thats always a concern when they get the deathband and it dries us out 30 miles south. Just gotta hope it sets up right and we can cash in too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Hopefully the NAM has been on notice and falls in line with the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 On 1/4/2025 at 9:51 PM, yoda said: Sold Expand Gorgeous! 8-12” still looking solid 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I’m thinking GFS is trying to find a compromise. This might be it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Something to pay attention to within 24 hours on the meso models is the potential for the dual banding to set up…one south and another north like many Mets here have talked about. GFS sort of shows this happening here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 On 1/4/2025 at 9:52 PM, WxUSAF said: Perhaps a little betwixt the 850 and and 700mb lift?Yep. Makes a lot of sense. Someone’s going to get caught between the dual band structure for a time. Rising and sinking air and such. Hope it’s not Baltimore but it very well could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 On 1/4/2025 at 9:52 PM, WxUSAF said: Perhaps a little betwixt the 850 and and 700mb lift? Expand Was expecting maybe a subsidence zone between the two maximas with how strong the h7 lift north and h85 lift south are on some of the CAM’s. Gfs is more like the American mesos and NAM than the south camp. Northern expanse of precip for m/d folks is better this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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