January 5-6 Thing II: STORM MODE

[jaydreb]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Uh...like every time since 2019? DC has outperformed BWI and Baltimore on every slider-like system that we've had since then. I'm kinda surprised folks aren't aware of that (but I get that this is a more DC focused forum).

BWI had more snow than DCA two of the last three winters, with the winter in between having less than an inch at each of them.  

[DDweatherman]

Just now, jayyy said:

00z tonight should be interesting. We’ll finally be within *roughly*24 hours of the onset, so hi res models will hold a lot more weight.

I’m watching the gradient and seeing where the fronto will align with it. I don’t know that we’ll get a north trend but the northwest edge can definitely perform even without it. We’re gonna go from 1 to 6” somewhere in 40 miles or so. 

[jaydreb]

EPS

[jayyy]

I’m watching the gradient and seeing where the fronto will align with it. I don’t know that we’ll get a north trend but the northwest edge can definitely perform even without it. We’re gonna go from 1 to 6” somewhere in 40 miles or so. 

Agreed. The area i’m most interested in as far as “boom potential” is the moco-hoco-bwi corridor. If models are underdoing the dual banding aspect, they could score some nice totals in that area where they stay all snow but are also far enough south. Going to be a nailbiter for sure.

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

EPS

That's a bit of a step back. Atleast for us northern folks.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

EPS

Pretty much splits the difference between the 0z and 6z ens runs. The mean is just bouncing around a bit like the op. Wouldn't expect to see much difference between them at this range.

[Ravens94]

SREFS are still a nuke

[mappy]

1 minute ago, Ravens94 said:

SREFS are still a nuke

Can you share please?

[clskinsfan]

FV3 is my soulmate. Still a ways to go snowfall wise after this too. 

[jayyy]

FV3 is my soulmate. Still a ways to go snowfall wise after this too. 

I know it’s the FV3 RAP and SREF, but they’ve been pretty consistent on the due W to E nature of precip. Cautious on those though as we’re definitely outside of their useful range

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS percentages: 1, 3, 6 and 12 inches

[paxpatriot]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS percentages: 1, 3, 6 and 12 inches

Hoo boy, that’s a bit disheartening for us M/D folks. Still hoping the GFS/NAM combo has the right idea—and in a storm like this, I would expect them to be a lot closer than what the Ukie is showing.

[EastCoast NPZ]

7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

FV3 is my soulmate. Still a ways to go snowfall wise after this too. 

She's a beaut, Clark.

I wish the FV3 actually had a clue.

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, paxpatriot said:

Hoo boy, that’s a bit disheartening for us M/D folks. Still hoping the GFS/NAM combo has the right idea—and in a storm like this, I would expect them to be a lot closer than what the Ukie is showing.

I thought the same thing. Pretty much no chance at 6" +

[LordBaltimore]

NAM nest is still the only non-suck (*cough* hi-res fv3) convective allowing model in range right now. Even if it's error prone at this range it's the only model that can pick up low end mesoscale features that could broaden the precip shield

[Terpeast]

I think the euro and ukie are underestimating the dual banding, with one on the north side with good ratios, fully believe that band drops over 6”. If the gfs and euro were to split the difference, that north band will be across north-central MD

[Weather Will]

WB 15Z NBM.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

I think the euro and ukie are underestimating the dual banding, with one on the north side with good ratios, fully believe that band drops over 6”. If the gfs and euro were to split the difference, that north band will be across north-central MD

Parr's Ridge also helps with a bit of lift. I know @wxmeddler has some research background on that.

[brooklynwx99]

you guys look to be in for it. this kind of system will favor significant FGEN and heavy snow... there are likely two maxima here: one with the 700mb FGEN that has higher ratios to the north, and another with the wicked 850mb FGEN near DC (there can be mixing issues, but you have the most precip). this 700mb FGEN initially is why I wouldn't be overly worried up north. temps are better too with lesser mixing concerns. overall, looking like a significant event for many in the DC area! enjoy

[mappy]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

you guys look to be in for it. this kind of system will favor significant FGEN and heavy snow... there are likely two maxima here: one with the 700mb FGEN that has higher ratios to the north, and another with the wicked 850mb FGEN near DC (there can be mixing issues, but you have the most precip). this 700mb FGEN initially is why I wouldn't be overly worried up north. temps are better too with lesser mixing concerns. overall, looking like a significant event for many in the DC area! enjoy

Thank you! My northern friends seem a bit worried. I hope this helps them.

[Eskimo Joe]

^man that's some sick lift. Someone is going to get legit fluff from this storm. My jackpot for this would be Winchester up through the Catoctins.

[Ravens94]

Final and this is 10:1 so far underdone for most

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, mappy said:

Thank you! My northern friends seem a bit worried. I hope this helps them.

np! yeah you guys have the benefit of not being that worried about sleet. personally I would take the 3-6" of high ratio powder over 3-6" of sleety cement anyway. even with something like the ECMWF, you'd probably have ratios a bit over 10:1 in N MD with cold surface temps and good forcing aloft with the initial push. these soundings are cold

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 15Z NBM.

So NBM is going against the euro? 

[jayyy]

WB 15Z NBM.

NBM blend has been rocksteady with what I’ve had in mind for this storm for days. It’s not always spot on, but it gives us an idea of what’s possible given the uncertainties we’re facing. This would be a win for pretty much everyone. I live in Carroll county so this isn’t an IMBY thing; I can’t shake the idea that the MOCO - HOCO deathband zone will likely do well with this one. Not buying the 3-4” depictions from some models. This setup has a classic look at 500mb for that area to do well on the NW side of the storm.

Can someone remind me what models get considered in the NBM blend?

[DDweatherman]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

np! yeah you guys have the benefit of not being that worried about sleet. personally I would take the 3-6" of high ratio powder over 3-6" of sleety cement anyway. even with something like the ECMWF, you'd probably have ratios a bit over 10:1 in N MD with cold surface temps and good forcing aloft with the initial push. these soundings are cold

Historically we’re looking to target -5 to -8 at the growth level, no? And when that coincides with good mid level lift and VV, you can really max the ratios. 

[brooklynwx99]

also this exact event is why people shouldn't fret over ENSO. some of you guys might have half of your yearly average by Jan 6 while north of 78 smokes cirrus as we're heading into a favorable pattern. I kinda love the irony

[packfan98]

Call map from DT. Good luck everyone. 
 

 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

also this exact event is why people shouldn't fret over ENSO. some of you guys might have half of your yearly average by Jan 6 while north of 78 smokes cirrus as we're heading into a favorable pattern. I kinda love the irony

My new favorite pattern is a +TNH/+PNA combination!

[jayyy]

Call map from DT. Good luck everyone. 
 
 

Dare I say it…. Actually pretty reasonable


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