Benjamn3 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 By this evening when all the models have a good sampling of data I’d say things will be more inline. Which way things go is up in the air. Just pour a drink or spark a bowl. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx12 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 WTOP in DC just went with 4"-8". They did mention s****, but not i**. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hstorm Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 For anyone who hasn't been following closely, UKMET has been the most southern model for a few runs. 12z appears to be marginally further south than 6z, but no drastic shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 UK and GFS comparison at H51 below. Our SW is a bit further south on the UK but look up north. UK has a closed low vs open wave on the GFS. I think that’s impacting it but I’m stoopid so what do I know. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, nj2va said: UK and GFS comparison at H51 below. Our SW is a bit further south on the UK but look up north. UK has a closed low vs open wave on the GFS. I think that’s impacting it but I’m stoopid so what do I know. https://www.pivotalweather.com/c706d48f-0b8b-44c9-99db-65baf4e57194 Wish I was in front of the computer to break out the other models and compare that feature. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, nj2va said: UK and GFS comparison at H51 below. Our SW is a bit further south on the UK but look up north. UK has a closed low vs open wave on the GFS. I think that’s impacting it but I’m stoopid so what do I know. https://www.pivotalweather.com/c706d48f-0b8b-44c9-99db-65baf4e57194 Also at 51 the GFS is closed off at 500 in KY and the UK is not. So the GFS is trying to drive the surface low north. The UK is not. Crazy the difference this close to the event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: UK and GFS comparison at H51 below. Our SW is a bit further south on the UK but look up north. UK has a closed low vs open wave on the GFS. I think that’s impacting it but I’m stoopid so what do I know. Also, it looks to phase the energy in more than kick it on the GFS. The s/w position at h51 isn’t all that different and really nor are the heights to cause as much ground truth difference. But downstream from this is where the effects are magnified and the big divergence is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 Ok. Euro started. Let's see if the UK is on to something. Or on something. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 No appreciable changes through hr 24 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, bncho said: We need a tick north from the Euro. Don’t generalize. I’m looking for one no doubt. But I’d take it looking exactly like 6z if we’re being honest. That alone is enough to think the UK is on something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: WB has it as sleet or something according to Will's map. You have the sounding? Sometimes WB paints sleet in snow/close snow situations ETA: Nevermind. Saw you edited and said you checked the sounding Needs to be >10 J/kg or the hydrometeors won't melt. Verbatim it's still snow. The real issue is the dry slot impinging aloft around this time, which starts removing most of the ice crystals. Snow growth gets inefficient or flips to snow grains and/or freezing drizzle until around 5pm, when the IC layer is restored as the main vort maxes passes south. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 8 minutes ago, nj2va said: UK and GFS comparison at H51 below. Our SW is a bit further south on the UK but look up north. UK has a closed low vs open wave on the GFS. I think that’s impacting it but I’m stoopid so what do I know. 12z UKMET has a closed vortex over the St. Lawrence Valley, the GFS does not. That appears to be a key difference at 500mb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 Nothing huge so far...at hr 42 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: 12z UKMET has a closed vortex over the St. Lawrence Valley, the GFS does not. That appears to be a key difference at 500mb. It's also open at H5 vs. GFS which keeps it closed for a while longer. Makes a difference to the WCB. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I would not worry about coastal snow being s-se of us. In a transfer it’s almost always missing to ne that’s the problem. The overrunning does not look suppressed, The high is building in slowly and does not appear to be a 30.50 suppressive monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 9z...snowing for all. No temp issues. This will not be the UKMET 21 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: 9z...snowing for all. No temp issues. This will not be the UKMET Good news so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 Seems basically the same. No temp issues for most of us. Still awating. the snowfall maps to see if heaviest stripe moved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 Heaviest axis DID move south tho 1 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 WIth that said...it really isn't that much different for the Metro area accums wise on SV 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 Calm down yall, it isn't that drastic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 It's not that bad. DC still gets a healthy 6-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 4 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 Just now, Ji said: you control the narrative So you want me to not tell you what's on the model? Because that's what I'm doing verbatim. Heaviest axis moved south. I can't help the way one takes it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, Ravens94 said: You have the kutchera? 11 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Giggidy, giggidy. Zoomed in to the DC area. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, jaydreb said: its pretty good. 6-10+ is a good forecast 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Much better! Okay now that I can live with. When I saw the other with 3 inches I was like nah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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