WXNewton Posted Tuesday at 01:44 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:44 PM 15 minutes ago, wncsnow said: For the first time this storm, the HRRR has a band of snow hitting us tomorrow morning. It's hard for me to believe that we won't have some moisture develop once the energy sneaks up and under the SW MTNS. I can't recall a storm tracking across the N.Gulf with a good look shield of precip that just dries up as it moves east. The models obviously see something, but still it's hard for me to believe. Op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Tuesday at 01:56 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:56 PM Better than 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Tuesday at 01:59 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:59 PM I know it's the RAP but it also trended much wetter. We might get a decent NAM run here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Tuesday at 02:00 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:00 PM Wake up everyone we about to get Namd 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Tuesday at 02:02 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:02 PM 14 minutes ago, WXNewton said: It's hard for me to believe that we won't have some moisture develop once the energy sneaks up and under the SW MTNS. I can't recall a storm tracking across the N.Gulf with a good look shield of precip that just dries up as it moves east. The models obviously see something, but still it's hard for me to believe. Op Problem is - there’s two major inhibitors for gulf moisture transport to WNC: - the original low dying out and transferring to the Atlantic is bound to leave a dry slot somewhere. We rarely benefit from a west to east transfer. - several models are hinting at robust convection in the gulf, cutting off our already limited gulf feed. I think THIS is the wildcard. Those storms or lack thereof can mean the difference between getting blanked or having a huge shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Tuesday at 02:02 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:02 PM Ok I see you NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted Tuesday at 02:02 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 02:02 PM I know it's the RAP but it also trended much wetter. We might get a decent NAM run here. That drier slot moved just a little to the east also. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted Tuesday at 02:03 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 02:03 PM Just now, wncsnow said: Ok I see you NAM Postive vibes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Tuesday at 02:03 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:03 PM Just now, strongwxnc said: Postive vibes. I'm all positive vibes today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Tuesday at 02:04 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:04 PM Hi Res NAM about to slap us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Tuesday at 02:08 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:08 PM Much better for the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Tuesday at 02:09 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:09 PM 3k has a good handle on this imo. It sees the sinking air east of the apps. I don’t think this is only a foothills issue. I could see areas under winter storm warnings in the triad getting blanked too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Tuesday at 02:10 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:10 PM Didn't expect that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Tuesday at 02:11 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:11 PM 1 minute ago, BooneWX said: 3k has a good handle on this imo. It sees the sinking air east of the apps. I don’t think this is only a foothills issue. I could see areas under winter storm warnings in the triad getting blanked too. 3K gives me 2 inches from that persistent band and about to give us round 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted Tuesday at 02:11 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:11 PM 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Ok I see you NAM I love the warm bubble right over HKY lol. I remember a system in the 2000s where that little valley warm pocket kept us sleet while everyone around was switching to snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Tuesday at 02:12 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:12 PM I’ll say this - wouldn’t it be HILARIOUS if this topped the Jan 11th event? I’d only need more than 2.1” to make that a reality, not likely but attainable with a little Lee side trough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Tuesday at 02:13 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:13 PM The NAM is much improved. 3K is heading that way. Positive vibes only 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Tuesday at 02:14 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:14 PM Just now, wncsnow said: The NAM is much improved. 3K is heading that way. Positive vibes only Could’ve been much better as well. I poked around soundings and it has sleet/snow for many hours with a clear snow sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted Tuesday at 02:15 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:15 PM 6 minutes ago, BooneWX said: 3k has a good handle on this imo. It sees the sinking air east of the apps. I don’t think this is only a foothills issue. I could see areas under winter storm warnings in the triad getting blanked too. It's not a great setup for the foothills. It's a combo of this being a west to east type system (Due to the blocky NH pattern) before the Atlantic SLP takes over. So you get a bit of downsloping to start (dry/warm air) and once the column is saturated, the dynamics are shifting east towards the Atlantic SLP. They wont strike out though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted Tuesday at 02:18 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:18 PM 12+ over Tidewater area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Tuesday at 02:19 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:19 PM Just now, HKY_WX said: 12+ over Tidewater area That run doubled most of our QPF. It's probably out to lunch but we might see a day of slight increases. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Tuesday at 02:23 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:23 PM The NAM was much more muted than recent runs with convection in the gulf. That’s the wildcard tomorrow and why I think some models are so paltry and some are much improved. @HKY_WXremind me - isn’t there a rule for the orientation of those storms in the Gulf? Some setups enhance moisture transport to the north while others choke it off? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Tuesday at 02:32 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:32 PM Some of these nam members are juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted Tuesday at 02:37 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:37 PM 2 hours ago, BooneWX said: The NAM was much more muted than recent runs with convection in the gulf. That’s the wildcard tomorrow and why I think some models are so paltry and some are much improved. @HKY_WXremind me - isn’t there a rule for the orientation of those storms in the Gulf? Some setups enhance moisture transport to the north while others choke it off? A mesoscale thunderstorm complex in the GOM can throw off the models. In that it can cause convective feedback upstream and lead to a gap in moisture coverage vs reality. Of course the inverse can be possible as well if the models aren't anticipating it. Whereas in overrunning (Isentropic) lift scenarios, once a storm starts up it can cause the models to self correct once they start factoring in downstream moisture advection. When these systems start to form over TX/LA area you often see the models start to self-correct and increase totals in SC/NC/VA. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted Tuesday at 02:38 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:38 PM 13 minutes ago, BooneWX said: The NAM was much more muted than recent runs with convection in the gulf. That’s the wildcard tomorrow and why I think some models are so paltry and some are much improved. @HKY_WXremind me - isn’t there a rule for the orientation of those storms in the Gulf? Some setups enhance moisture transport to the north while others choke it off? You want a positive orientation, I.e. the orientation of hwy 64 between Morganton and Lenior. Basically funnel that moisture up to usz 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Tuesday at 02:44 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:44 PM I have been scouring every piece of data I can find and they have all increased moisture from last nights runs. One of the biggest things I have noticed is the models want to set up a band near or over the escarpment. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted Tuesday at 02:49 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 02:49 PM 5 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I have been scouring every piece of data I can find and they have all increased moisture from last nights runs. One of the biggest things I have noticed is the models want to set up a band near or over the escarpment. Something to watch going forward today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Tuesday at 02:58 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:58 PM Some slight improvement on the ICON for us too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Tuesday at 03:37 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:37 PM 53 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I have been scouring every piece of data I can find and they have all increased moisture from last nights runs. One of the biggest things I have noticed is the models want to set up a band near or over the escarpment. Lee side trough for the win? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Tuesday at 03:45 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:45 PM 6 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Lee side trough for the win? GFS is improved 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now