BooneWX Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 I have little faith in SREF plumes but I did find it interesting for KHKY that yesterday there was good consensus for a sub-2” event with most members below the mean line. Today there are two groups forming: one is a tight cluster between 2.5-4” and another slightly smaller but still large cluster between 1-2”. Yesterday, several members blanked KHKY and today, none do. Outliers: 2 members @ .35” 4 members (up from 2 members yesterday) >5” 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 With these cirrus filtering in, it looks and feels like something is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Here's the image from the 09Z SREF for KHKY. Two inches of snow would feel like a really big win at this point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Uk with slight improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 A lot of the improvement is keeping the initial band together 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 I think the big thing tomorrow is that some stretch of western NC is likely to get completely blanked. It’s the nature of these systems moving west to east. The big question is where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Euro with a slight improvement with overall precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 36 minutes ago, BooneWX said: I think the big thing tomorrow is that some stretch of western NC is likely to get completely blanked. It’s the nature of these systems moving west to east. The big question is where. Yeah, that's my fear, at this point, too. Catawba County Schools are going remote learning tomorrow. It will be so sad if students just have to stare at brown earth all day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 18 Author Share Posted February 18 Yeah, that's my fear, at this point, too. Catawba County Schools are going remote learning tomorrow. It will be so sad if students just have to stare at brown earth all day.I assume the same down here in Rutherford also. Have not called yet . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 SREF mean looks like it’ll be slightly less but overall not much of a change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 18 Author Share Posted February 18 23 minutes ago, BooneWX said: SREF mean looks like it’ll be slightly less but overall not much of a change about 2" for me. Well the site is about 20 miles to my East on the SREF page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 RAP at the end of the run has snow breaking out and lifting under SW MTNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 18 Author Share Posted February 18 RAP at the end of the run has snow breaking out and lifting under SW MTNS. Yes, I would like to see more of that! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 That upper low feature gives as much or more snow than the actual "low" on the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 GSP cut my expected snowfall by half an inch but increased the high end by an inch. In short - nobody knows! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 the Nam and Hi Res Nam suck this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: the Nam and Hi Res Nam suck this run. The 3k has been firing warning shots for several runs now. I could care less locally because my expectations are low but this could be heartbreak city tomorrow for the triad and Wake co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 The NAM has a distinct line of storms in the gulf robbing moisture transport. Like I said earlier, that’s the key to the boom or bust factor for many. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 5 minutes ago, BooneWX said: The NAM has a distinct line of storms in the gulf robbing moisture transport. Like I said earlier, that’s the key to the boom or bust factor for many. It also is weaker and further offshore. I was feeling a bit hopeful earlier but not anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 ICON- less moisture. We are on the train to milky sunshine 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Brad P. Says that the lull in precip back here in the West is due to the low pressure basically jumping to the east coast and transferring the best lift and energy to the east for the coastal to take over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Im holding onto my 19 virtual inches i had at 0z last Wednesday night and im not letting go. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 6 minutes ago, WiseWeather said: Im holding onto my 19 virtual inches i had at 0z last Wednesday night and im not letting go. . I sat out the sled, flat side up for measurements and good luck. Nothing wrong with bringing the vibes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 7 minutes ago, WiseWeather said: Im holding onto my 19 virtual inches i had at 0z last Wednesday night and im not letting go. . You are going to need a virtual snowblower for all of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 You are going to need a virtual snowblower for all of that.We live in the foothills…. Who needs a snowblower on a gravel road?? . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 6 minutes ago, WiseWeather said: We live in the foothills…. Who needs a snowblower on a gravel road?? . When the euro had HKY at like 10-11" on Friday or Saturday night, I said oh no here we go, no one wants to be in the bullseye 4 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 When the euro had HKY at like 10-11" on Friday or Saturday night, I said oh no here we go, no one wants to be in the bullseye 4 days out.I dont think you even want it to show snow 24 hours out now… the models suck.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 HRRR does have a little love this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: HRRR does have a little love this run It looked much better on the radar depiction than previous cycles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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