BooneWX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 41 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said: When are today's strong winds? There's barely even been a breeze since the line moved through... Just started here. Went from dead calm to howling in 30 min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I'm just going to post in here but the writing is on the wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Don’t blame you, @wncsnow. The main forum doesn’t work for us and the mountain folks kicked us out last year. Sucks that we can’t seem to pull one in. Another dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 When the snow area shifts to the tidewater I'll be laughing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 Yesterday 12 Euro sucked me in. Should have known to temper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I’m probably going to get blasted in the main thread for that, but nothing is more ironic than RDU posters who have trolled the mid range disco for weeks with spring posts telling everyone to not generalize this storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I think our chance is for the WAA transport to be oriented right at us to get a front end thump. GFS kind of shows this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I think our chance is for the WAA transport to be oriented right at us to get a front end thump. GFS kind of shows this. One thing I’m hoping for with the LP track is that meso models show the upslope enchantment were used to seeing with type of system. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Guys, there’s no need to bittercast on the RDU peeps. I want the snow badly here in WNC, too, but I am sure they want it in RDU just as badly.I still think we are in a favorable position, three days out. We’re not likely to see a foot of snow, but a couple of inches or so, seems fairly realistic. And, it could trend more as the field of precipitation blossoms more to the NW like it usually does.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The 12Z GFS actually looks pretty decent for WNC. I think the CMC and ICON depictions are just underdoing the precipitation on the NW side. I don’t think we would see the lee side minimum in this setup.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, calculus1 said: The 12Z GFS actually looks pretty decent for WNC. I think the CMC and ICON depictions are just underdoing the precipitation on the NW side. I don’t think we would see the lee side minimum in this setup. . I agree, I think we will see more precip in our area than what most of the models are currently depicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 13 minutes ago, calculus1 said: Guys, there’s no need to bittercast on the RDU peeps. I want the snow badly here in WNC, too, but I am sure they want it in RDU just as badly. I still think we are in a favorable position, three days out. We’re not likely to see a foot of snow, but a couple of inches or so, seems fairly realistic. And, it could trend more as the field of precipitation blossoms more to the NW like it usually does. . I hope it wasn’t taken that way. There’s some great posters down that way that I’d be happy for. I took issue with the jab @wncsnow when they’ve trolled this entire pattern for weeks. Now that it might be going their way, they want everyone to quit talking about anything other than RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Euro with the dagger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Euro with the dagger 2 or 3 inches is a win at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: 2 or 3 inches is a win at this point That’s not a win, that’s the ceiling. Win would be flurries the way this is going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Charlotte with more snow than Asheville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Call me crazy, but I’m still not that worried about the leeside minimum that was just depicted on the ECMWF. I think the climatology of a system taking this track will lead to the system filling in the precipitation to the NW up against the Apps. Of course, I’m not a trained met, so my thoughts are solely based on inference from previous iterations of similar storms, and I could be really wrong by not understanding all the interactions of the atmospheric conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 minutes ago, calculus1 said: Call me crazy, but I’m still not that worried about the leeside minimum that was just depicted on the ECMWF. I think the climatology of a system taking this track will lead to the system filling in the precipitation to the NW up against the Apps. Of course, I’m not a trained met, so my thoughts are solely based on inference from previous iterations of similar storms, and I could be really wrong by not understanding all the interactions of the atmospheric conditions. I heard this several times before the dud of an event in January. Didn’t pan out then and won’t now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Gut says this isn’t an event for anyone west of 95 but we’ll see. NW trend is something to watch for but we’ve SE trended this whole winter up to go time with the exception of a few storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, BooneWX said: Gut says this isn’t an event for anyone west of 95 but we’ll see. NW trend is something to watch for but we’ve SE trended this whole winter up to go time with the exception of a few storms. But don't you know? Every storm trends NW! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 21 minutes ago, wncsnow said: But don't you know? Every storm trends NW! If only! Would be nice to score in one of the only 2 ways it’s humanly possible to score here (miller a or b). That’s why I always chuckle at the “foothills are climo favored.” Climo favored my ass! Too far east for flow snow, shadowed for everything else. 2 ways to get snow and two ways only here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: But don't you know? Every storm trends NW! They all do, and this one will also .... Question is .... will it be too much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernest T Bass Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 My point and click NWS forecast says 90% chance of snow on Wednesday and could be heavy at times. Kind of surprised by that. I expected it to temper back some if anything. Hopefully they see something us amateurs don't. Granted I am technically NW Piedmont but very close to foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 6 minutes ago, Ernest T Bass said: My point and click NWS forecast says 90% chance of snow on Wednesday and could be heavy at times. Kind of surprised by that. I expected it to temper back some if anything. Hopefully they see something us amateurs don't. Granted I am technically NW Piedmont but very close to foothills. I was just coming here to say this. GSP was chicken noodle soup for the soul this afternoon with their disco. They are sticking with a potential warning level event. My point forecast says “90% chance of heavy snow” on Wednesday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 I was just coming here to say this. GSP was chicken noodle soup for the soul this afternoon with their disco. They are sticking with a potential warning level event. My point forecast says “90% chance of heavy snow” on Wednesday.Yup 2-4” here with snow heavy at times . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Models still trending east. ICON was similar and RGEM was bone dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 15 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Models still trending east. ICON was similar and RGEM was bone dry Are you ready to call It now .... time of death? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Are you ready to call It now .... time of death? Not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 We just need the HRRR to save us now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I really let myself get down and out during that January system. This one was the nail in the coffin for me. I'm out of tracking winter weather for this year. It honestly just has not brought me joy. I'll still probably linger but I'm out for the forseeable future. Best of luck, guys. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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