CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I have not seen an EPS mean of 6 inches in years. The Euro suite is looking sweet. Maybe I will need that shovel after all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 6:43 PM, CAD_Wedge_NC said: I have not seen an EPS mean of 6 inches in years. The Euro suite is looking sweet. Maybe I will need that shovel after all. Expand I won't disagree with you this time.. for now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Keeping eye of QPF increase or Decrease the next couple days and how far west and North it will trend or not ? Also could we possibly be seeing the storm still on track for timing , but longer duration storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just watch the consistency going forward. I’ve always said that big dogs for western NC don’t pop up or oscillate very much. They bark early and bark louder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I'm still in the "I'll believe it when I see it". I think there will be wintry precip around but will be too late of a bloomer for me. Maybe a trace. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 On 2/15/2025 at 11:53 PM, WNC_Fort said: I'm still in the "I'll believe it when I see it". I think there will be wintry precip around but will be too late of a bloomer for me. Maybe a trace. Expand I think we are in pretty decent spot for a couple inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Right where we want it. 18z eps went a little south and east with the heaviest precip. I don’t want the bullseye on the globals until late tomorrow or Monday. I don’t think we’ll see a NW per say, but I think it’ll adjust 50-100 miles NW with time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 12:03 AM, BooneWX said: Right where we want it. 18z eps went a little south and east with the heaviest precip. I don’t want the bullseye on the globals until late tomorrow or Monday. I don’t think we’ll see a NW per say, but I think it’ll adjust 50-100 miles NW with time. Expand Hope so. I am a little concerned we get fringed while Greensboro to Richmond gets nailed. EPS confirms this. I have 00Z doesn't much further east. I don't mind where it is now but anymore east and I'm a little concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 EPS was another tick down here. Seems like it'll be one of those where Piedmont gets smoked, while I get a small storm. Guess it's better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Roxboro has to eat - always does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 12:30 AM, BooneWX said: Roxboro has to eat - always does Expand When I lived near Danville I saw more snow than Marion most winters I was there. I'm setting the bar for this one at 3 inches. If we get that or more I will call it an OK winter. Less than that and somewhere down east gets a foot then I'm disappointed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 12:34 AM, wncsnow said: When I lived near Danville I saw more snow than Marion most winters I was there. I'm setting the bar for this one at 3 inches. If we get that or more I will call it an OK winter. Less than that and somewhere down east gets a foot then I'm disappointed. Expand That temp gradient leads me to believe this will be more amped in the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 12:49 AM, BooneWX said: That temp gradient leads me to believe this will be more amped in the end Expand All I know is there's very few storms where we get more snow then SW NC. Usually only if it's strong CAD but this is not really that. I have seen Jan 2016 as an analog that would make a lot of people happy in the mountains. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I almost let tomorrow get off my radar. 50 mph gusts and soils this saturated…no bueno. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmoon Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 12:52 AM, wncsnow said: All I know is there's very few storms where we get more snow then SW NC. Usually only if it's strong CAD but this is not really that. I have seen Jan 2016 as an analog that would make a lot of people happy in the mountains. Expand I know we are far removed from these times but Marion used to kick butt in the snowfall department in the 80s and 90s. It was like they were apart of the high mountains. I know it has not been like that the last decade or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 1:53 AM, Jmoon said: I know we are far removed from these times but Marion used to kick butt in the snowfall department in the 80s and 90s. It was like they were apart of the high mountains. I know it has not been like that the last decade or so. Expand Yeah I remember 1993 vaguely and definitely remember 96. The late 80s had some good ones for Marion too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 12:12 AM, wncsnow said: Hope so. I am a little concerned we get fringed while Greensboro to Richmond gets nailed. EPS confirms this. I have 00Z doesn't much further east. I don't mind where it is now but anymore east and I'm a little concerned Expand Well 00Z is heading east so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 GFS was essentially a nothing-burger here. Having January flashbacks of a weaker and non-impressive system here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 4:39 AM, WNC_Fort said: GFS was essentially a nothing-burger here. Having January flashbacks of a weaker and non-impressive system here. Expand Uk says we don't even get an inch lol. We are in trouble with these trends. I bet the Euro gives us a 2 or 3 inches if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 12:25 AM, WNC_Fort said: EPS was another tick down here. Seems like it'll be one of those where Piedmont gets smoked, while I get a small storm. Guess it's better than nothing. Expand Coming back to this to say I doubt I’ll even see accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Where's the QPF? Same story as every other "winter" threat this year. Rain, sure, here's an atmospheric river. But, snow *poof* 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Get me to spring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 1:32 PM, BooneWX said: Get me to spring Expand We need a complete atmospheric reset somehow. A big volcanic eruption or a small meteor maybe? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 We’ve firmly entered the territory in the main thread where some of us want a memorable storm and others are willing to sacrifice a lamb for a weak solution that nets everyone a dusting-half an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 Got almost 5" over the last week or so. Such wasted potential ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 1:47 PM, strongwxnc said: Got almost 5" over the last week or so. Such wasted potential ! Expand And you will during the next rain as well. We only know how to get flooding. Now, when cold air is involved, good luck! Dry as the Sahara. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Really think the northern stream is our main culprit. The TPV is too close and pressing down on our poor weak southern stream. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 On 2/16/2025 at 2:03 PM, wncsnow said: Really think the northern stream is our main culprit. The TPV is too close and pressing down on our poor weak southern stream. Expand Look at it this way .... if it phases early and we amp up, we have wiggle room to still get a good winter storm out of it. We are actually in a better spot than if we were worrying about a NW trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 When are today's strong winds? There's barely even been a breeze since the line moved through... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Major issues showing up- 1. Progressive quick moving system being ushered out by the TPV/northern stream. 2. Weaker confluence to the NE leading to warmer temps ahead of the system. 3. Weaker southern stream wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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