BooneWX Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Is the atmosphere capable of normal rain anymore? I’m talking like a half inch in a day with a frontal passage or quick moving system. It’d be neat to not get an atmospheric river every time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 Nothing like 3” of rain all below 36 degrees in winter . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, strongwxnc said: Nothing like 3” of rain all below 36 degrees in winter . I really am ready for this winter to end. I see more cold rain in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 People still talking snow chances in the foothills? Not happening. It will be cold. It will rain. It will be miserable. There will be no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mercurydime Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4.29 inches for this rain event. That's a soaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6 minutes ago, mercurydime said: 4.29 inches for this rain event. That's a soaking. Catawba got up some and it's scary without any banks that were destroyed from Helene. I'm afraid a 15 ft level will be more like a 20 ft level now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I see a foothills downslope screw zone showing up on models already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Pattern repetition/atmospheric memory. Central VA to the MD eastern shore are some of the biggest winners in the USA this winter. Why think they won't jackpot again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 What does it take for us in the foothills to score anymore. It's either amped/rain or weak/sheared/no precip. I just need 1 decent storm y'all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 55 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said: What does it take for us in the foothills to score anymore. It's either amped/rain or weak/sheared/no precip. I just need 1 decent storm y'all. I think we get a mix of everything this storm but it could trend NW and we get 35 and rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I’m going to track this storm because it’s weather but my gut and initial thought is that most of the foothills will see zero snow from this setup. It’s a sleet - sleet and Zr to Zr situation unfortunately. I’m not buying any snow south of middle VA. There’s cold air around that could change this but we don’t know how to do phased storms unless it’s something the pine swamps in ENC can benefit from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 11 minutes ago, BooneWX said: I’m going to track this storm because it’s weather but my gut and initial thought is that most of the foothills will see zero snow from this setup. It’s a sleet - sleet and Zr to Zr situation unfortunately. I’m not buying any snow south of middle VA. There’s cold air around that could change this but we don’t know how to do phased storms unless it’s something the pine swamps in ENC can benefit from. I think CAD might be underdone and could help us with surface temps at least. Could be a nasty ice storm or a sleet bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 10 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I think CAD might be underdone and could help us with surface temps at least. Could be a nasty ice storm or a sleet bomb I’ll hope for the latter and I do agree that CAD will come in stronger than modeled on globals. Would love a good front end thump of snow but ice is the likely setup when you’re scooting that 50/50 low so far east. Still time for an earlier phase and honestly some models are teetering close to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 At this point I'm surprised we even got measurable snow this winter. What ever happened to the old days of huge CAD highs... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I don’t have a good screenshot because it was mid-Atlantic focused but man. The EPS had some absolute haymakers for western NC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I remain cautiously optimistic, but that’s also my SOP. Let’s get a big dog next week! The potential is so great. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 This looks fun tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Some brutal cutoffs showing up in our backyards @WXNewton @calculus1. like 2 inches for us and a foot for Lenoir 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 Yay more rain this morning at 37° Joy., . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, strongwxnc said: Yay more rain this morning at 37° Joy., . Exhausting stretch of weather. Just hanging in there for now, because I know if it follows our normal pattern, we won’t see rain for about 6 weeks here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Some brutal cutoffs showing up in our backyards @WXNewton @calculus1. like 2 inches for us and a foot for Lenoir Right now I'm in a good spot but it will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Some brutal cutoffs showing up in our backyards [mention=18057]WXNewton[/mention] [mention=4420]calculus1[/mention]. like 2 inches for us and a foot for Lenoir That’s a good start on the reverse jinx. I like it!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I’m optimistic that this predominantly snow area could expand a bit as models catch onto CAD. I think we already started to see that last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, BooneWX said: I’m optimistic that this predominantly snow area could expand a bit as models catch onto CAD. I think we already started to see that last night. Looks like Euro ensembles at this point is our best bet. I feel like in these situations is going to be hard to avoid some sleet and possibly some freezing rain here. Even the big storm of December of 2009, I had 8 to 9" in my area with sleet and freezing rain, while Lenoir up to the mountains just got crushed with snow. I think all in all it could be a major winter storm that shows a little bit of everything for us. I do like seeing the ensembles get a little bit colder each run. I think we will see precipitation expand further north and west as we get closer to the storm, not necessarily A further north track just a depiction of moisture expanding further north and west and if we can combine that with colder temperatures each run we should transition more to a snow and sleet storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 23 minutes ago, WXNewton said: Looks like Euro ensembles at this point is our best bet. I feel like in these situations is going to be hard to avoid some sleet and possibly some freezing rain here. Even the big storm of December of 2009, I had 8 to 9" in my area with sleet and freezing rain, while Lenoir up to the mountains just got crushed with snow. I think all in all it could be a major winter storm that shows a little bit of everything for us. I do like seeing the ensembles get a little bit colder each run. I think we will see precipitation expand further north and west as we get closer to the storm, not necessarily A further north track just a depiction of moisture expanding further north and west and if we can combine that with colder temperatures each run we should transition more to a snow and sleet storm. I’m all for a good ol fashioned 3-4” of snow with 2 inches of sleet for sledding. Just hope we can keep the ZR out. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 23 minutes ago, WXNewton said: Looks like Euro ensembles at this point is our best bet. I feel like in these situations is going to be hard to avoid some sleet and possibly some freezing rain here. Even the big storm of December of 2009, I had 8 to 9" in my area with sleet and freezing rain, while Lenoir up to the mountains just got crushed with snow. I think all in all it could be a major winter storm that shows a little bit of everything for us. I do like seeing the ensembles get a little bit colder each run. I think we will see precipitation expand further north and west as we get closer to the storm, not necessarily A further north track just a depiction of moisture expanding further north and west and if we can combine that with colder temperatures each run we should transition more to a snow and sleet storm. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Euro crushes us holy sheet 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 Euro crushes us holy sheetDo tell! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 15 Author Share Posted February 15 Good lord at the output. Fine line down here. 12” top county to 1-2” bottom of the county. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 EPS agrees. It could be the rare system that gives us foothills folks more than the Smokies. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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