CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 1:04 AM, wncsnow said: Not every Gulf storm trends NW. A high percentage do but not every storm. Weenies gonna learn. Expand OK ..... What percentage do you think trend NW? You say a high percentage .... does that mean you think that there is a high percentage of this one trending NW. Asking for a friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 2:01 AM, CAD_Wedge_NC said: OK ..... What percentage do you think trend NW? You say a high percentage .... does that mean you think that there is a high percentage of this one trending NW. Asking for a friend. Expand We only pay attention to winter storms that tend to trend north. What about gulf rain storms? Hurricanes? There have been storms the past 10 years that everyone said would trend back this way and they never did. January 2018 was one. High percentage does not = 100%. You just like being argumentative anyway. I'll be waiting your picture of you shoveling your driveway next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 2:22 AM, wncsnow said: We only pay attention to winter storms that tend to trend north. What about gulf rain storms? Hurricanes? There have been storms the past 10 years that everyone said would trend back this way and they never did. January 2018 was one. High percentage does not = 100%. You just like being argumentative anyway. I'll be waiting your picture of you shoveling your driveway next week Expand No, I have been on these boards for 20 years and I have learned that you never speak in absolutes. You learn that nothing is written in stone until a 100% model consensus is reached. That hasn't happened yet with this storm. Not being argumentative, I am just trying to understand your reasoning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 2:41 AM, CAD_Wedge_NC said: No, I have been on these boards for 20 years and I have learned that you never speak in absolutes. You learn that nothing is written in stone until a 100% model consensus is reached. That hasn't happened yet with this storm. Not being argumentative, I am just trying to understand your reasoning. Expand I have been on here just as long and before that on AccuWeather forums and eastern wx. A lot of people are speaking in absolutes about this system trending north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 2:48 AM, wncsnow said: I have been on here just as long and before that on AccuWeather forums and eastern wx. A lot of people are speaking in absolutes about this system trending north. Expand I believe there was a reason for that. Webber kept telling us that it would come NW. He is a great met and has good pattern recognition skills. By the way, I pulled my shovel out of the shed ..... just in case the EURO/CMC camp is right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 2:48 AM, wncsnow said: I have been on here just as long and before that on AccuWeather forums and eastern wx. A lot of people are speaking in absolutes about this system trending north. Expand Yeah nothing is absolute. Its all about probabilities and chances based on past events. Either way, GSP has my with a 40% chance of snow starting midday Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 11:17 AM, CAD_Wedge_NC said: I believe there was a reason for that. Webber kept telling us that it would come NW. He is a great met and has good pattern recognition skills. By the way, I pulled my shovel out of the shed ..... just in case the EURO/CMC camp is right. Expand The Euro shows a dusting to an inch. Good luck shoveling that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 And the 06Z Euro was mostly dry here. Long ways to go but it has a long ways to trend still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 1:21 PM, wncsnow said: And the 06Z Euro was mostly dry here. Long ways to go but it has a long ways to trend still. Expand No doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Seems like the models are catching on to the WAA overriding the arctic airmass. I’d expect improvements to continue on the northwest side today and tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 2:07 PM, BooneWX said: Seems like the models are catching on to the WAA overriding the arctic airmass. I’d expect improvements to continue on the northwest side today and tomorrow. Expand I think its possible but I'm surprised the Euro AI has trended drier and drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I just keep reminding myself that all we need is .2 - .3” of liquid for this to be a big storm locally 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Thing is drying up quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 4:55 PM, wncsnow said: Thing is drying up quickly. Expand Lol I was just thinking the same. Quickly trending towards the immediate coast or bust. Been a long time since we’ve seen a truly amped, robust system. Always chuckle when people worry about that (hasn’t been a concern for anybody in a long time.) Still intrigued by the NAM. Gonna be interesting to see if it latches onto the overrunning idea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 5:36 PM, BooneWX said: Lol I was just thinking the same. Quickly trending towards the immediate coast or bust. Been a long time since we’ve seen a truly amped, robust system. Always chuckle when people worry about that (hasn’t been a concern for anybody in a long time.) Still intrigued by the NAM. Gonna be interesting to see if it latches onto the overrunning idea. Expand Almost every system has been weak and strung out. I would love to see a phased bomb. At least it would be interesting 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 RDU folks complained for years about things being too amped and they very well may watch suppression kill them too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Honestly, color me shocked by this. Those are oddly high odds for our area. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I would be surprised if the nam is as amped this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 8:20 PM, wncsnow said: I would be surprised if the nam is as amped this run Expand But boy oh boy did it come close. Almost caught the bowling ball over the epac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 A dusting is a win at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Light precip even near the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 It’s been a great day! Been outside most of it. Washed the cars ( well got all the salt off them). Time to embrace the cold and hope for the best ! . 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 9:31 PM, strongwxnc said: It’s been a great day! Been outside most of it. Washed the cars ( well got all the salt off them). Time to embrace the cold and hope for the best ! . Expand Faucet dripping weather is upon us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I detest super cold without snow. Give me days like today if no snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Only saving grace for me is that Catawba Falls has reopened. I look forward to going later in the week to see them frozen over. Otherwise, I'm glad we've had a chilly winter but just sucks not to have any snow to show for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 On 1/18/2025 at 10:37 PM, WNC_Fort said: Only saving grace for me is that Catawba Falls has reopened. I look forward to going later in the week to see them frozen over. Otherwise, I'm glad we've had a chilly winter but just sucks not to have any snow to show for it. Expand It sucks that places like Baton Rouge, Atlanta, parts of Alabama and now possibly coastal SC, NC, and GA will exceed our annual snow totals. I have been thinking about what I would grade this winter so far, the cold has been unexpected and it was nice to break the streak.. with that being said.. we didn't even verify winter storm warning criteria in that system and we are still in a serious snow drought. I would give it a B- if the season ended today. If it continues with no snow through the rest of winter, I would probably give it a C. Our standards have slipped more than a single 40 year old at Applebee's. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 I just find it so ironic how warm our oceans are and how equally difficult it is to get a juiced up phased bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 On 1/19/2025 at 12:08 AM, BooneWX said: I just find it so ironic how warm our oceans are and how equally difficult it is to get a juiced up phased bomb. Expand Too much northern stream in the end 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 I’d love to know what is baked into some of these ensembles. A few hang on to the Carolina crusher idea. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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