wncsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 HRRR also shows the potential for a quick burst of snow Sat. am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, CAD_Wedge_NC said: I'll bump this post while I am shoveling the snow off my walkway next week. Haha you are a funny man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernest T Bass Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Seems early to be too sure one way or the other; I'll ride it out a bit longer. Even Brad P left a little NW trend wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 I think what we’re hoping for right now has less to do with the track of low (seems rather baked in) and more to do with dynamics. There is a scenario (Canadian) where we could pull off a nice event locally, purely based on overrunning precip. Not totally out on that solution but when the Canadian is the only one in that camp, I’m less than enthused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 This storm won’t bug me because others scored. I’ll be super happy for those folks and fellow weenies. What will grind my gears is getting a warm air aloft sleet fest a week before when even .2qpf gets me almost 4 inches in this setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Might be sitting this one out in N, Foothills. Hope that someone gets their dream storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Maybe we can score a late winter ULL or cutoff. January about looks cooked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 For some reason i just cant get past the Wednesday storm…. For some reason i have a weird feeling about it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 2 hours ago, WiseWeather said: For some reason i just cant get past the Wednesday storm…. For some reason i have a weird feeling about it. . Canadian or bust! If we get a full phase we’d be in the game but the Canadian is on an island at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I just cant recall a recent time when any storm just drove off of the coast like this and into the atlantic. Storms typically don’t miss us especially storms with moisture. Might just be my wishful thinking but i just dont believe in the ots scenario.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Sadly, our Saturday morning burst of snow has trended warmer and less precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 17 minutes ago, WiseWeather said: I just cant recall a recent time when any storm just drove off of the coast like this and into the atlantic. Storms typically don’t miss us especially storms with moisture. Might just be my wishful thinking but i just dont believe in the ots scenario. . Everything except the Canadian misses the phase and you end up with a flatter, weaker system that can’t blossom precip or drive north. The phase or lack thereof will determine if we’re in or out in the coming days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Fwiw, the NAM at range favors the CMC with the energy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Not our storm. Not sure how to get a big one here anymore but it's not this setup 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Euro beefed up tomorrow morning again for the mountains. Think it will be a couple degrees to warm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Interesting to see the amount of big hits from the Canadian Ensembles. Probably hanging on to lost hope but we’re also at a point where options still seem to be on the table. 7/20 are massive hits locally 12/20 decent event or better 8/20 no dice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 We need about a 250 mile shift NW on the Euro in 4 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, wncsnow said: We need about a 250 mile shift NW on the Euro in 4 days... To be fair, the Euro isn’t close on the phase timing or tilt. If it’s right, it’s game over except for the immediate coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Not to continue being a pessimistic weenie but man, we've had our coldest Dec-Jan in recent memory and it just feels like we have so little to show for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Just now, BooneWX said: To be fair, the Euro isn’t close on the phase timing or tilt. If it’s right, it’s game over except for the immediate coast. Thats true. Only light amounts really even for the coast. The one thing that gives me a little hope is some of the models showing that finger of overrunning moisture as the low is back near Louisiana. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Thats true. Only light amounts really even for the coast. The one thing that gives me a little hope is some of the models showing that finger of overrunning moisture as the low is back near Louisiana. Yep. We’re all in on a phase or bust with us. A couple of Mets like Webb keep saying they expect robust overrunning to start showing up when the CAMs are in range. The jet streak depicted on most models is very favorable so we have that. I wouldn’t expect globals to show overrunning at this range either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Patience grasshoppers I thoroughly believe that we will continue to see shifts until Sunday at some point. Hell, it could take until Monday. Living in CAE all those years have taught me that it’s not over until it’s over. Yes, I’m the eternal optimist p.s. I rode the cmc/dgex to frozen glory back in 2010. Stranger things have happened before 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 hours ago, WNC_Fort said: Not to continue being a pessimistic weenie but man, we've had our coldest Dec-Jan in recent memory and it just feels like we have so little to show for it. It’s coming. Your power bill. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 minute ago, jburns said: It’s coming. Your power bill. Hah that's sad but true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Idc if I’m wishcasting or not. Look at that jet on the GFS with a Gulf connection. No we won’t get huge rates but do not be shocked if this trend continues and cams deliver a 12+ hr period of light snow. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, jburns said: It’s coming. Your power bill. I got mine today Not looking forward to next month either lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Theres a big part of me that believes in a phase. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Not every Gulf storm trends NW. A high percentage do but not every storm. Weenies gonna learn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 39 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Not every Gulf storm trends NW. A high percentage do but not every storm. Weenies gonna learn. Not to mention how rare of a NW trend it would take to get us involved. Right now the low tracks almost through central Fl and then over the eastern edge of the Gulf Stream. I’ve seen plenty of scenarios where RDU is in the jackpot with a storm just a little bit off of the coast and it trends just barely inland and buries us instead. Idk if I’ve ever seen one this far out translate to a western NC event. Like I said earlier. The track is fairly baked in imo. There will be a minor jog nw but not enough to get us involved alone. If we can get a full phase and generate some overrunning we’re in the game. As of right now, no guidance shows that except for a few ensembles mostly skewed to the Canadian, who’s own Op, is trending away from a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now