BooneWX Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Euro AI, Graphcast and Canadian are absolutely major storms for WNC. Euro AI specifically painted a beautiful 8-12” of snowpack on our glorious hills. And those were 10:1 ratios. Temps would’ve gotten us in the 13-15:1 range. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 Jason Boyer is on the snow train. I just watched him at 5:30. He’s in the 4 to 7 day window and leaning towards favorable conditions.! Also it’s gonna be cold! . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Wish the 18z euro would go out further. That was about to be the biggest storm the south had seen in a very long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/15/2025 at 9:52 PM, BooneWX said: Euro AI, Graphcast and Canadian are absolutely major storms for WNC. Euro AI specifically painted a beautiful 8-12” of snowpack on our glorious hills. And those were 10:1 ratios. Temps would’ve gotten us in the 13-15:1 range. . Expand People make a big deal about ratio but it only matters for the original measurement. It quickly compacts and 10” of 10 to 1 snow will melt as quickly as 5” of 5 to 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 18Z Euro AI is a miss for here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 1:40 AM, wncsnow said: 18Z Euro AI is a miss for here Expand Tick-Tock. Suppression incoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 1:37 AM, jburns said: People make a big deal about ratio but it only matters for the original measurement. It quickly compacts and 10” of 10 to 1 snow will melt as quickly as 5” of 5 to 1. Expand Sleet vs snow is a similar concept. 2” of sleet won’t typically melt faster than 6” of snow. I suspect it may even last longer on average. Sleet can be tough to melt in the shade! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Nam and now the Hi Res Nam are close for Saturday morning for the mountains and adjacent foothills. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 The ensemble mean has mostly increased because the huge members are skewing it upward. There are still more whiffs than hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mercurydime Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 3:13 AM, wncsnow said: ICON Expand It likes us! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 Gsp 2:55AMThe GFS and ECWMF, and their ensembles, have all trended toward a drier solution. The Canadian and its ensembles are wetter with some version of wintry precip for the southeast.Therefore, given the uncertainty, have gone with the model blend for now, capping any PoP at slight chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 I'm ready to focus my attention on Sat/Sun. Next week is off the table for WNC. Too much going wrong out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 How shitty will it be to get down to single digits then rain later in the week. That's what the Euro and GFS show now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 12:35 PM, wncsnow said: How shitty will it be to get down to single digits then rain later in the week. That's what the Euro and GFS show now. Expand Not yet sold on that solution. I want to see today's runs before I lose interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WiseWeather Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Gfs at least had 6 inches of snow…. To freezing rain to rain…. :/. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 It’s weird because I’m in the opposite camp from yall rn. I could care less about Saturday and keep looking at next week. I agree trends aren’t great right now but small tweaks would give us not only a storm but a very big storm. I think part of that mindset is driven by the “I’ll believe it when I see it” approach to this cold air. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 1:16 PM, BooneWX said: It’s weird because I’m in the opposite camp from yall rn. I could care less about Saturday and keep looking at next week. I agree trends aren’t great right now but small tweaks would give us not only a storm but a very big storm. I think part of that mindset is driven by the “I’ll believe it when I see it” approach to this cold air. Expand The cold air looks to be for about 3 or 4 days then it hightails it out of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 1:35 PM, wncsnow said: The cold air looks to be for about 3 or 4 days then it hightails it out of here. Expand Oh I believe it’s coming but I’m hard pressed to believe it’ll be as stout as modeled. I think we’ll see moderation a bit by Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Oooooooohhhhh Canadaaaaaaaaa 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Euro is bullish on Saturday morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 5:36 PM, wncsnow said: Euro is bullish on Saturday morning Going to pop someone for sure. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Well. Not afraid to admit that for now, the trend is not our friend. Ain’t gonna lie boys!!! This is gonna suck. Especially if I watch Columbia SC get 15”+. Admittedly, it’s not the model suite that changed my tune, it’s Dr. Jonathan Wall saying it’s over for us that did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/15/2025 at 4:21 PM, wncsnow said: Hot take- we get more flakes Saturday morning than next week Expand This is aging like wine right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 6:25 PM, wncsnow said: This is aging like wine right now Expand Hope we get a token flake or two but after next week, I want a -PNA, +NAO, and all time February records. I’ve had enough cold and dry + the sickness going around rn is absurd. After Helene, the last thing I wanted was this boring ass winter so let’s just kick it to summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 6:27 PM, BooneWX said: Hope we get a token flake or two but after next week, I want a -PNA, +NAO, and all time February records. I’ve had enough cold and dry + the sickness going around rn is absurd. After Helene, the last thing I wanted was this boring ass winter so let’s just kick it to summer. Expand I'm with you 100%. My kids cant stay healthy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 6:29 PM, wncsnow said: I'm with you 100%. My kids cant stay healthy. Expand We have a new cold or virus in our home every 7 days. I’ve never seen anything like it. I think I have more cold and flu meds in my cabinet than a CVS right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Didn't expect to see everyone jumping ship this quickly but it does align with what I thought a couple days ago. This was a true arctic airmass and that doesn't work out for us. Will be painful to see the coast get more snow than I've seen in years but, that's the way it works here lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 I’m in till the storm passes by. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 On 1/16/2025 at 6:25 PM, wncsnow said: This is aging like wine right now Expand I'll bump this post while I am shoveling the snow off my walkway next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now