wncsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 GFS looks fine. More mixing than Euro but it's nowhere near the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 Looks like GSP going with a warmer nose going more North which adds in IP. I feel like we knew this would be the case anyway. One thing is for sure, it looks to start Mid morning Friday for this area. With just over 24 hr out to start, GSP still is giving wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Latest NAM has 0.6 QPF for Hickory. It also retains the significant warm nose that first showed up on the 00Z version last night. We could have 1-2 inches of sleet on the ground if the NAM is correct. That’s some concrete. Wow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Got down to 13 this morning. Ground is frozen solid. Every flake will stick! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Doesn't seem like lack of moisture will be a huge issue. Sleet could be, especially south of 40. I think those nestled up to the Blue Ridge could stay snow but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 14 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Got down to 13 this morning. Ground is frozen solid. Every flake will stick! wow! Beat me. I was just at 19. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mercurydime Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 13.5 for the low here this morning. Chilly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Surely the NAM will be a little better this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 40 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Surely the NAM will be a little better this run? Nope. I definitely don't envy the NWS. If the GFS and Euro come in with mostly snowy solutions surely they consider the NAM an outlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 The NAM definitely seems like the worst case scenario right now but even then, I get an inch of snow and about 2 inches of sleet. Those are elite sledding conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 I'm going to stick with 2-3 inches for most of our area and perhaps a half inch to an inch of sleet on top for ideal sledding. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 5 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I'm going to stick with 2-3 inches for most of our area and perhaps a half inch to an inch of sleet on top for ideal sledding. I like the way you think.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Whatever falls is going to become concrete if we get some sleet. I’ll be shocked if we verify in the upper 30s Saturday but maybe under full sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Here's the probability of precipitation type for the 09Z SREF plumes at KHKY. Snow to sleet to freezing rain. All frozen, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 3 minutes ago, calculus1 said: Here's the probability of precipitation type for the 09Z SREF plumes at KHKY. Snow to sleet to freezing rain. All frozen, though. Cool. We have been burned by every model or plume in the past it feels like. LOL Question everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 We could mix but I don't think many of us will get ZR. Strongwx is most likely to but I don't think it will be a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Almost lunchtime and it’s still 29 at my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 Just now, BooneWX said: Almost lunchtime and it’s still 29 at my house 32 here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Wind is ripping here. 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mercurydime Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 28.8/11.1 RH 47% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 3 minutes ago, mercurydime said: 28.8/11.1 RH 47% No way it's anything but frozen tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Most local meteorologists are cutting totals due to the stronger warm nose. Everyone leaning on the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ernest T Bass Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 12 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Most local meteorologists are cutting totals due to the stronger warm nose. Everyone leaning on the NAM... Noticing that. I think I will take my chances with hopefully more precip and hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Euro getting juicier! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 We're less than a day away my foothill friends. How we feeling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 15 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said: We're less than a day away my foothill friends. How we feeling? I feel confident the streak of futility will be broken. 2-3 inches seems the best bet with some sleet on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 16 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said: We're less than a day away my foothill friends. How we feeling? No comment yet. But I do plan to hit the beer and milk store before going home today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Winter Storm Warning issued for the entire area! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avianman Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Winter Storm Warning for all the Foothills and NW Piedmont. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2-8 inches is a big range for the warning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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