strongwxnc Posted yesterday at 12:14 AM Author Share Posted yesterday at 12:14 AM 5 minutes ago, wncsnow said: I just have that nagging feeling that something is going to screw us still. Don't like the 18Z euro going dry again. It looked like the UK with a dry area around the escarpment too. Hopefully the trends will be good at 00Z. I always think a storm will not work. Period. I hate it. I hope we continue to see good trends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted yesterday at 12:48 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:48 AM I’m the same way @wncsnow. Skeptical until the very last snowflake. The Lee minimum showing up is concerning me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted yesterday at 01:54 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:54 AM We’ll avoid the Lee side min if it’s even slightly amped. If the Euro is right…then we are screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted yesterday at 01:57 AM Share Posted yesterday at 01:57 AM 2 minutes ago, BooneWX said: We’ll avoid the Lee side min if it’s even slightly amped. If the Euro is right…then we are screwed. I agree. The Euro and UK both showing it is concerning me. If 00Z euro and UK come in dryer again I'm going to lower expectations 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted yesterday at 02:07 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:07 AM 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: I just have that nagging feeling that something is going to screw us still. Don't like the 18Z euro going dry again. It looked like the UK with a dry area around the escarpment too. I always feel this way now. We have been burned for far too long. 1 hour ago, strongwxnc said: I always think a storm will not work. Period. I hate it. I hope we continue to see good trends. 100% agree. On a positive note, it appears we will have no issue with the cold, no matter which model we are viewing. The QPF is the issue here. We need the storm to wind up and move up the coast for us to get those bigger totals. Of course, that brings in more mixing for those to our south and east. If it just slides along underneath us and out to sea, we are looking at much lighter totals than we could have in the first scenario. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mercurydime Posted yesterday at 03:04 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:04 AM Gotta figure by this time tomorrow we'll have a pretty good idea of what to expect. It'll be interesting if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted yesterday at 03:13 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:13 AM Ugh. That leeside minimum and Asheville snow hole are looking worse and worse 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted yesterday at 03:42 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:42 AM 28 minutes ago, WNC_Fort said: Ugh. That leeside minimum and Asheville snow hole are looking worse and worse Brad Panovich gives you a leeside maximum in his call map. You’re looking good in Old Fort, I believe. Your town needs a good weather event after all the recent catastrophe. I hope this is a good one for you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted yesterday at 03:43 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:43 AM Don't like the trends tonight... may turn into an inch or less for leeside screw zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted yesterday at 03:45 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:45 AM 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Don't like the trends tonight... may turn into an inch or less for leeside screw zone. Oh, I am well aware of that horrible screw zone, but I think this is more likely to just be a smaller event overall rather than a big event elsewhere while the foothills get nothing. Of course, I’m not a pro met… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mercurydime Posted yesterday at 03:46 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:46 AM So easy to get hyped up having gone so long here without accumulating snow. I'll believe it when I see it falling. I'm not too hard to please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted yesterday at 03:54 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:54 AM 47 minutes ago, mercurydime said: Gotta figure by this time tomorrow we'll have a pretty good idea of what to expect. It'll be interesting if nothing else. From years of experience I can assure you that around this time tomorrow someone will post: Gotta figure by this time tomorrow we'll have a pretty good idea of what to expect. It'll be interesting if nothing else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mercurydime Posted yesterday at 03:55 AM Share Posted yesterday at 03:55 AM 1 minute ago, jburns said: From years of experience I can assure you that around this time tomorrow someone will post: Gotta figure by this time tomorrow we'll have a pretty good idea of what to expect. It'll be interesting if nothing else. I aim to please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted yesterday at 04:31 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:31 AM We need a strong subtropical jet. Lacking a bit during a Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted yesterday at 04:41 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:41 AM 57 minutes ago, calculus1 said: Your town needs a good weather event after all the recent catastrophe. I hope this is a good one for you. Not sure how a winter storm is good for anyone affected by the hurricane…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted yesterday at 04:54 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:54 AM My confidence is dwindling fast. I assume the Euro will be very dry as well. Must have been some new data sampled.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted yesterday at 04:58 AM Share Posted yesterday at 04:58 AM See @Met1985 this is why us foothill folks can’t be optimists anymore. Our first real event is quickly turning to a dud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted yesterday at 06:46 AM Share Posted yesterday at 06:46 AM This was never going to be a moisture rich system. That was pretty much set from day one. We always new that things had to happen just perfect for anyone to get significant accumulations. It is what it is. We will see how today goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted yesterday at 11:02 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:02 AM My guess is that we will see the moisture increase today, but I am afraid that the track may shift inland like the GFS just showed. Who knows.... it seems like we still don't know what will probably happen, and we are only 60 hours from game-time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted yesterday at 11:27 AM Share Posted yesterday at 11:27 AM Not sure how a winter storm is good for anyone affected by the hurricane….Point taken.My idea was that snow storms often bring a little bit of magic and wonder to people and are rarely destructive in our area. I figured the kids, at least, would enjoy seeing snow on the ground. But, that won’t be true for everyone, and it could be difficult for many still recovering and trying to rebuild. I was not trying to be flippant.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted yesterday at 01:15 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:15 PM Depressing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avianman Posted yesterday at 01:30 PM Share Posted yesterday at 01:30 PM The SREF mean for Hickory is still 3 inches, which is pretty much what most models have been saying all along for here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted yesterday at 02:01 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:01 PM This is probably more coping than anything but here is our bright side in our “this sucks” moment: - Short term guidance is juicier than globals. - still 48 hrs out from the event. - the difference between a little and a lot is a tiny tiny tweak to some of the upper level interactions. - models might not be underestimating the big picture but I do think they’re underestimating lift and upslope potential. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted yesterday at 02:46 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:46 PM At this point be happy with your grass covered.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted yesterday at 02:55 PM Share Posted yesterday at 02:55 PM Yea we’re cooked lol. I’ve seen enough. It was at least fun to track with everybody. It felt like old times. After this whiff, I’m ready for summer. I’ll be pulling for an egregious SER in Feb personally. Pull the bandaid off and enjoy fishing and getting outside. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted yesterday at 03:12 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:12 PM 24 hours ago we looked golden. Now we might be lucky to get an inch.. it's hard to break a streak like this.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted yesterday at 03:17 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:17 PM 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: 24 hours ago we looked golden. Now we might be lucky to get an inch.. it's hard to break a streak like this.. Yep. I’ll admit I’m taking this one harder than normal because it’s likely our last crack at anything. It’ll be cold this month but we lose our -NAO and we all know how key that is. We score Friday or it’s likely on to 25/26 winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted yesterday at 03:21 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:21 PM I'm worried it will trend drier and drier until it's a flizzard... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted yesterday at 03:49 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 03:49 PM 31 minutes ago, BooneWX said: Yep. I’ll admit I’m taking this one harder than normal because it’s likely our last crack at anything. It’ll be cold this month but we lose our -NAO and we all know how key that is. We score Friday or it’s likely on to 25/26 winter. No doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted yesterday at 03:52 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:52 PM This is the sort of rug pull that hurts the heart. I think I’d just ask for the teasing to stop and transition to spring. I’m over tracking snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now